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Author Topic: GOP Will Eat Itself  (Read 35536 times)

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Brentai

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2008, 12:10:53 PM »

Pat Buchanan hijacked the Reform Party and tried to make it the lunatic GOP fringe third-party but it turned out that even fundies hate Pat Buchanan.  Also he dimwittedly took on a party identity shared most famously with Jesse Ventura.

But yeah, it'd be nice to have a party specifically to separate out the lunatic conservative fringe the same way there's one for both ends of the socioeconomic scale and one for lunatic liberal fringe (sorry Thad).

(This is pretty much describing the crux of the GOP's problem, here: without that effective right-edge fringe party, the Republicans effectively are the right-edge fringe party, which the moderates are going to inevitably shy away from.)
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Thad

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2008, 12:56:49 PM »

I really, really hope they secede.  I'd happily kick them the fuck out.

I have had enough of irrelevant, hatemongering bullshit topics becoming important political issues in America.  We have actual issues, stuff having to do with human lives and the nation's prosperity, and you're worried about where people might be putting their dicks?  Fuck you, get out of my country.

Yeah, tell you what.  You can keep up the "let them secede" claptrap AFTER you've found me a job in blue America and helped me move.

We'll never have more than two viable parties on a national level. It's just the way our constitution works. You get one or two, never three or more.

Nonsense.  We had a functional multi-party system well into the nineteenth century (and Lincoln was a third-party candidate).  Yes, voting in congress is based on majority, but there's bound to be overlap in parties; using the Libertarian example, they'd side with the Democrats on social issues and the Republicans on economic ones.

The issues preventing third parties from becoming viable aren't about the Constitution so mach as an entrenched power structure.  To achieve national attention, a third-party candidate has to have the resources of Ross Perot -- and after 1992, the Debate Commission changed its rules specifically to prevent him from being allowed back in.

Where the constitutional issue DOES arise is in the electoral college.  Perot snagged millions of votes but not a single electoral vote.

Elections by simple plurality are a whole other argument, and have their pros and cons.  (With instant runoff voting, people wouldn't face the "Do I vote Nader, or Gore?" dilemma, but on the other hand, Lincoln would never have been elected under such a system.)

The Republicans have an excuse lined up for an Obama victory. Defeat isn't going to break them. Now, depending what happens in the next four years, something might come up that will, but as long as they can tell themselves that the news media handed the White House to Obama on a silver platter then their motley alliance isn't going to dissolve. Should the unlikely happen and McCain carry the day, the Democrats have their own excuse, too, in the form of blaming voter racism.

Frankly I think that we'd be better off if half the country decided that power-mad newshounds were the ones who fucked everything up, rather than Klan hicks. But that's possibly because I know more rednecks than reporters.

Not going to work.  It's a great excuse to give to the true believers, but the party leaders know that's not really what cost them the election -- and if they don't, then they're going to move forward with a failed strategy and continue to lose.

And the Republican intellectuals who've already turned against Palin aren't going to play ball with her in four years.  Colbert made an excellent point the other night that they didn't seem to have any problem with the party's increasingly nasty politics until they started backfiring, but now the cat's out of the bag and you're not going to see Noonan, Will, or Frum slinking back to the very talking points that they believe are destroying their party.

The libertarians, too: how long has it been since either party pretended they were going to cut anything for any reason other than necessity?

Er, the Republicans have been pretty damn good about removing government regulation and oversight from private business.  That's how we got into our current economic mess.

And while I'm at it, I also feel sorry for the greens, but it wouldn't be polite of me to explain why.

I'm going to go with "they nominated a candidate best known for hitting a Capitol security guard with her cell phone because he didn't recognize her."

Well, and I think I've just about used up my quota of posts in Real World for the year.

...Yeah, you know, I gotta tell you, the "I'm going to say some stuff and then run off rather than discuss any of it" bit's getting kind of old from where I'm standing.

I'd rather we just have viable parties that hateful, illogical crazed members of the fringe just aren't a part of so we can talk about things like health care in our elections, instead of who shook hands with an arab when they were growing up.

And I'd like to have a unicorn.

The evangelicals aren't going to go away -- at least, not for a very long time.  They've got money, they've got access, and they vote in huge numbers.

Pat Buchanan hijacked the Reform Party and tried to make it the lunatic GOP fringe third-party but it turned out that even fundies hate Pat Buchanan.  Also he dimwittedly took on a party identity shared most famously with Jesse Ventura.

The Reform Party has its own special set of problems.  It never had an identity; it was a party specially created so Perot could run for President.

But yeah, it'd be nice to have a party specifically to separate out the lunatic conservative fringe the same way there's one for both ends of the socioeconomic scale and one for lunatic liberal fringe (sorry Thad).

Haven't been registered Green in over four years.  They've made it abundantly clear they're not interested in forming a viable party or being the least bit relevant.

I still stand by my Nader vote in 2000, and think that his central message of corporate control of the government was utterly commonsense and not "lunatic fringe" in the least.  But then the Green Party buckled, dumped him, and is now running Cynthia fucking McKinney.

Regardless of what happens to the GOP, we're never going to have real change while the Democrats are owned by special interests.
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Arc

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2008, 01:52:47 PM »

Quote
Source - “I saw a couple that had been escorted out and they were confused as well, and the girl was crying, so I said ‘Why are you crying? and she said ‘I already voted for McCain, I’m a Republican, and they said we had to leave because we didn’t look right,’” Elborno said. “They were handpicking these people and they had nothing to go off of, besides the way the people looked.”

GOP Will Eat Itself might be the most appropriate title here.
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Thad

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2008, 02:12:22 PM »

:scanners:
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Brentai

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2008, 02:19:03 PM »

It may be more prudent at this point to let the GOP be the isolationist fringe party at this point, and form a new third for moderate conservatives who don't discriminate based on color ethnicity looks being under 30.  Might take a few years to gather steam but considering what's in store for the next few years...

:blahblahblah:  Old men... are the future.
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Brentai

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2008, 02:40:35 PM »

:painful: We've had to endure much, you and I, but within the week, there will be black men running the world.
:thad: No.  Within three months.
:painful: Yes.
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Kashan

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2008, 03:14:38 PM »


Nonsense.  We had a functional multi-party system well into the nineteenth century (and Lincoln was a third-party candidate).  Yes, voting in congress is based on majority, but there's bound to be overlap in parties; using the Libertarian example, they'd side with the Democrats on social issues and the Republicans on economic ones.

The issues preventing third parties from becoming viable aren't about the Constitution so mach as an entrenched power structure.  To achieve national attention, a third-party candidate has to have the resources of Ross Perot -- and after 1992, the Debate Commission changed its rules specifically to prevent him from being allowed back in.

Where the constitutional issue DOES arise is in the electoral college.  Perot snagged millions of votes but not a single electoral vote.

The Democratic Republicans were basically the only party between the end of John Adams' one term and William Henry Harrison's term as a whig 40 years later.  The democrats split during this time into the Democrats and the national republicans. National Republicans collapsed and became the whigs. The Whigs collapsed prior to the rise  of the Republican party (so it's arguable Lincoln wasn't a third party candidate since there wasn't a real second party), and it's been nothing but republican and democrat since then.  So in summary, Pro/Anti administration, followed by Federalist/Democratic Republican, Followed by just Democratic-Republican (which could be split into followers of Adams and Jackson.), followed by Democrat/National Republican, followed by Democrat/Whig, followed by Democrat/Republican. There hasn't ever been a real three or more way split in power in the congress.

I'd like to believe that a third party has the possibility of real power in America, but history doesn't play that out.
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Thad

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2008, 04:01:29 PM »

It may be more prudent at this point to let the GOP be the isolationist fringe party at this point, and form a new third for moderate conservatives who don't discriminate based on color ethnicity looks being under 30.  Might take a few years to gather steam but considering what's in store for the next few years...

But that's not really how it works.  Moderates vote in primaries; that's how we got McCain (who's not moderate but looks that way when you stand him between Huckabee and Paul).

The Democratic Republicans were basically the only party between the end of John Adams' one term and William Henry Harrison's term as a whig 40 years later.

True, but there were a number of Presidential races in that time with more than two viable candidates running.  I guess 1800 probably doesn't count given the original rules on VP selection.

The democrats split during this time into the Democrats and the national republicans. National Republicans collapsed and became the whigs. The Whigs collapsed prior to the rise  of the Republican party (so it's arguable Lincoln wasn't a third party candidate since there wasn't a real second party), and it's been nothing but republican and democrat since then.  So in summary, Pro/Anti administration, followed by Federalist/Democratic Republican, Followed by just Democratic-Republican (which could be split into followers of Adams and Jackson.), followed by Democrat/National Republican,

I'd argue that 1824 proves a race can happen with four candidates all receiving a few dozen electoral votes, but you're right, that wasn't a lasting effect, it was a party splintering along faction lines.  It was back to the old two-party game by '28.  Still, even the landslide of '32 had two third-party candidates who picked up some electoral votes.  I'd have to look at the electoral map for awhile to determine whether they were spoilers or if Clay could have won with their supporters.

And then '36 was when the Whig Party splintered, and van Buren's campaign in '40 is a good argument for the electoral college problem -- 10% of the popular vote, no electoral votes.

(Also: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGCuDDAPggw )

followed by Democrat/Whig, followed by Democrat/Republican.

1860, of course, is a hugely interesting election, and one of the intriguing pieces is the utter disparity between popular and electoral vote (Douglas came in second in popular and fourth in electoral).  But of course that's another breakdown and reformation situation.

There hasn't ever been a real three or more way split in power in the congress.

I'd like to believe that a third party has the possibility of real power in America, but history doesn't play that out.

All right, I think I'm going to have to concede on history.  There have been Presidential races with more than two candidates, but they've usually skewed heavily toward one or two, and they've usually been signs of party rifts that were resolved within a cycle or two.  And you're right about Congress.

I still maintain it's less of a constitutional issue (though the electoral college is a big part of it) than an access issue.  The people in power -- be it the entrenched parties or their financial backers -- don't like spreading that power around.

So, from a historical perspective, what do you suppose will happen to our current two parties?  Do you agree that the Republican Party is facing a crackup like the historical examples we've talked about?  And if so, do you have any thoughts on what will happen to the evangelical base?  Because like I say, that's where things get tricky -- it's toxic but it's not going to go away.

Would you argue that the evangelicals will increase control on the Republican Party while the intellectuals and Libertarians start allying with the Democrats?  Big business jumping ship from the Republican Party is a tough sell for me.  Evangelicals seem like the likeliest demo to get forced out.
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Detonator

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2008, 04:25:19 PM »

Big business jumping ship from the Republican Party is a tough sell for me.  Evangelicals seem like the likeliest demo to get forced out.

Exactly.  I don't see the Republicans going anywhere ever, they're just too entrenched in this era with the support of the aforementioned big businesses.  I do see a huge shift of priorities, mostly toward libertarian viewpoints, but that's just common sense.

I think they just have to lay low for a little while.  Their biggest strengths will be whatever the biggest perceived weaknesses of the Democrats will be in 8 years.  That's pretty much how the Democrats won.
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Thad

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2008, 04:34:02 PM »

It's going to be interesting to see how the noise machine reacts.  Fox News was in the tank for Giuliani but adapted to the McCain nomination immediately.  Limbaugh groused about McCain until some manufactured controversy gave him an excuse to leap to his defense; Palin was his personal pick for VP so that helped bring him onboard too.  Malkin looked like she was ready to revolt -- she may have gotten on board without the Palin nom, but it's hard to say.
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Kashan

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2008, 05:03:29 PM »

I love that song you linked.

As for what will happen to the GOP, I'm not sure. I don't see them actually fracturing or changing names or anything that interesting. I hope I'm wrong but I think they'll hold off complete collapse long enough to regroup in eight or ten years, but how and over what they'll regroup I don't know. I think if they're going to get back into the game it's going to have to be as the centrist party, so some of how quickly they regroup depends on how much power the Dems get and how far they run with the liberal agenda. I see them facing two major problems as re-casting themselves as the centrist party.

First, the evangelicals are a liability. I think some of that is a reaction to Bush backlash, and that will wear off given time. But partially the Evangelicals have some views that are just out of step with the rest of the country. If the republicans are wise they'll try to pull the evangelicals towards the center while still highlighting their pro-life position. The evangelicals can be moved, it happened with global warming and it could happen with other issues.

The second issue is that the Republicans are aging out as the babyboomers age out. They've been playing to only people over 40 for decades and it's finally going to bite them in the ass. They can't run on the issues of the 60's anymore, they're going to need to construct new political divides, and I have no idea what those will be. Abortion will still play, but all of the code word racist stuff is done, and the fake fiscal coservativism and horrible tax plans are finally entering the awareness of the general public.

I suppose the could start running on actual fiscal conservativism, but they'd need sombody exceptional to sell that. Somone with amazing charisma and probably an impeccable record.

I don't think the evangelicals will actually fracture off. It's hard to fathom how closely intwined the evangelical and republican brands are in the minds of most evangelicals. If the core republicans just ignore the evangelicals I don't see them splitting off and running their own guy or anything like that. They'll just take it and have depressed voter turnout.

I think it'll probably be at least 20 years before we see somebody running as under actual libertarian views.
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Romosome

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2008, 05:32:59 PM »

:painful: We've had to endure much, you and I, but within the week, there will be black men running the world.
:thad: No.  Within three months.
:painful: Yes.

Why contain it?
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Transportation

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2008, 08:56:22 PM »

Obama's pretty rad but the GOP's current massive disadvantages are Bush and the economic crash that's only going to worsen. The future Dem's will probably be blamed for: not fixing the economy fast enough, Iraq imploding, and any civil rights progress. Also Bush will be forgotten and the GOP will say they're all better now.

On the other hand, past elections were frequently one-sided, so I can't really say it'd be even.

Regardless, what factions will be eating each other:

Neocons: Primarily foreign policy. The U.S. is more broke then useful and Iraq has shown how horribly expensive this philosophy is in practice. Discredited if not dead.

Paleoconservatives: Ahahahahaha. No.

Libertarians: Given that everyone is currently blaming them for the economy, they are going to have problems. They've usually tied themselves to small business, but that may change if Obama's tax plan goes over well. They could be a hard sell to the electorate.

Evangelicals: They haven't really done anything stupid except for Palin. Which is a lot, but it doesn't effect their actual policies. Gay marriage bans, let's-put-god-on-everything, faith-based whatever, the list goes on. These are important to swing states, which are voting for their self-interest in this election (for once).

The Evangelicals have the primary of advantage of it being difficult to discredit them. Economic philosophies can have a similar devotion but that is not present in the average person who does not have time for it. But there's always time for church.

Church attendance will go up during this depression and thus the sympathy to Evangelical viewpoints. An Obama presidency will give even more ammo as Judge appointments and progressive rulings come out. This will help the state's rights angle they'll probably be employing.

The religious angle has a lot going for it. 2008 lacks sufficient religious outrage as McCain can't pull it off with a straight face. Palin's the VP and also an idiot. Bush accomplished some of the Religious Right's goals which neutralizes any build-up outrage that will result from Democratic administration.

The Culture War has been in a 'lull' do to the Bush Administrations hand-outs and their immense dissatisfaction, and possible lack of turnout, will be easily attributed to McCain. Palin's nomination showed how effective it can be. Of course Palin is an idiot and the GOP would need a figure with far more competency, but yeah.
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Arc

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2008, 09:53:03 PM »

Evangelicals: They haven't really done anything stupid except for Palin... Palin's the VP and also an idiot... Of course Palin is an idiot...

:wat: I'm not following. What exactly are you getting at here?
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Mongrel

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2008, 06:03:36 AM »

I think he's her husband?  :mystery:
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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2008, 09:19:15 AM »

 :whoops: The one time I don't proofread.
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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2008, 05:07:09 AM »

An interesting editorial, musing on where this all might go.

Granted, he's also pushing his pet theories (Flordia is terrible about shameless self-promotion), but there may be something in this. Thoughts?
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Transportation

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2008, 11:19:47 AM »

An interesting editorial, musing on where this all might go.

Granted, he's also pushing his pet theories (Flordia is terrible about shameless self-promotion), but there may be something in this. Thoughts?

It's actually rather amusing that I felt the title was more insightful than the actual article. The class warfare comment made some sense since socialism in America was stomped dead by Wilson and McCarthy. So, any 'return' to such values would probably involve a large amount of overreacting. It really doesn't help that according to McCain's rhetoric Americans are suddenly big fans of Marx if Obama wins.

I didn't actually stop reading, but I had double check proper nouns a few times. The Democratic Party is the party of the creative upper class? Really? I imagine the GOP's donors and their tax policy is slightly confused. It's not really class warfare if both sides have their own kind of rich people.

If you want to go that route an American Civil War analogy might be better. The South was A: Dirt poor and B: Supported their rich plantation owners. B was done at the expense of the poor white people to the extent of following the rich into the War of Southern Aggression Civil War. The North had its more progressive rich people which their poor also supported, to an extent. The DNC is more right than left so suddenly turning on rich people is a bit out of character.

This resembles the situation superficially but it doesn't take into account the possibility of the Solid South finally figuring out that 'oh hay these Republicans aren't helping' and voting for the their own interests.

I'm not really sure where this 'class warfare' will magically come from since there's a large ideological divide amongst classes anyway. The DNC also supports the policies that should be more attractive to class-minded individuals than the GOP. I'm not really seeing this being plausible in anything but a very, very vague sense.

Edit: PRONOUNS
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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2008, 11:58:34 AM »

No matter what you support, it's always the other guys who are stopping it from happening. Even if lots of the other guys actually support it and do more to support it than your guys do.
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Detonator

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Re: GOP Will Eat Itself
« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2008, 01:14:14 PM »

So of course there's a lot of talk that Palin is gearing up for a '12 run as the head of the Republican ticket.  People seem to take this seriously on both sides, but it seems mostly laughable to me unless there is a split off by the libertarians and moderates, leaving the religious nuts in charge there.

Either way I don't see her becoming a legitimate threat to the Democrats in the coming years.
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