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[TA]

She's explicitly said that she's planning to, so.

[SCD]

An interesting editorial, musing on where this all might go.

Granted, he's also pushing his pet theories (Flordia is terrible about shameless self-promotion), but there may be something in this. Thoughts?

Buddy, you're a walking billboard for the Globe and Mail.  Anything to please your lizard overlords at CTV Globemedia 

[Kazz]

Palin would have to get past the primaries.  And in 2012, I predict a radically different Republican party; probably one that wouldn't nominate Palin anyway.

[Kashan]

She'd never beat Huckabee in a primary anyhow.

[Classic]

Well, I dunno... Women voters?

[Norondor]

Well, I dunno... Women voters?

[Classic]

The Republican party thought she'd be a good VP. They might think it's a big enough block to make it worth it.

[Detonator]

The Republican party thought she'd be a good VP. They might think it's a big enough block to make it worth it.

Are you paying the least bit of attention? 

First of all, Palin was not chosen by a vote of all Republicans.  To suggest she would have been the top choice for the party is ludicrous.  They embraced her at first, but support is dropping like a rock.

Many see her as an embarrassment to the GOP, and many of its own members are going to lay the blame at her feet if McCain loses.  The religious right will still love her, sure, but they hardly make up the majority of the GOP.

And to top it off, many conservative pundits are disowning the McCain campaign with the choice of Palin being the main reason.

I see a very tenuous relationship between mainstream conservatives and Palin.  I see them cutting her loose once the election is over.

[Shinra]

The Republican party thought she'd be a good VP. They might think it's a big enough block to make it worth it.

Are you paying the least bit of attention? 

First of all, Palin was not chosen by a vote of all Republicans.  To suggest she would have been the top choice for the party is ludicrous.  They embraced her at first, but support is dropping like a rock.

Many see her as an embarrassment to the GOP, and many of its own members are going to lay the blame at her feet if McCain loses.  The religious right will still love her, sure, but they hardly make up the majority of the GOP.

And to top it off, many conservative pundits are disowning the McCain campaign with the choice of Palin being the main reason.

I see a very tenuous relationship between mainstream conservatives and Palin.  I see them cutting her loose once the election is over.

Embraced her at first? Hardly. For the first two days after the pick, everyone was shocked and a fair number were upset, especially Romney and Huckabee. They eventually started to act like they supported her because they realized A: mccain was serious, oh jesus christ and B: a lack of party support means the ticket sinks. I suspect the distancing has already begun simply because republicans are reading the writing on the wall and know this is pretty much over for them at this point.

[Classic]

As you've noted, they are prepping her for the political gallows, the whole suggestion is straight-up wankery.

I just found myself wondering if the women vote would make a Palin v Huckabee primary a less-than-certain race.

[Transportation]

Even in Palin's heyday she was not popular among women voters. Quite the opposite, actually.

Palin's political skills are are quite good in a Machiavellian sense of unseating an incumbent governor in a primary and then winning the election. I wouldn't be completely surprised if she managed to shoehorn herself in as candidate.

If Huckabee does well enough in the primary, his more populist rhetoric might bolster support for an otherwise mediocre (business-friendly) candidate. This could be Palin if she continues recruiting grassroots support.

She'll still fail incredibly in the general election, but her getting nominated is not implausible.

Basically: Huckabee candidacy + Business Interests ?= Palin nomination.

[Mongrel]

An interesting editorial, musing on where this all might go.

Granted, he's also pushing his pet theories (Flordia is terrible about shameless self-promotion), but there may be something in this. Thoughts?

Buddy, you're a walking billboard for the Globe and Mail.  Anything to please your lizard overlords at CTV Globemedia 

If only they paid me.

 

_{yes, I know, I read one particular paper far more than the others. But I always read The Economist in paper format. And everything else less often.}

[Thad]

An interesting editorial, musing on where this all might go.

Granted, he's also pushing his pet theories (Flordia is terrible about shameless self-promotion), but there may be something in this. Thoughts?

It hurts itself by drinking the suggesting that Obama is a far-left liberal.  He's not.  He's moderate.

If Huckabee does well enough in the primary, his more populist rhetoric might bolster support for an otherwise mediocre (business-friendly) candidate. This could be Palin if she continues recruiting grassroots support.

She'll still fail incredibly in the general election, but her getting nominated is not implausible.

Basically: Huckabee candidacy + Business Interests ?= Palin nomination.

I can pretty much guarantee there will be a candidate in the primaries who is more appealing to big business than Palin.  I've said before that I think Romney is the likeliest pick, but the Republican Party is not lacking for people who appeal to big business and are not also colossal embarrassments likely to be destroyed in a general election.

[Mongrel]

It hurts itself by drinking the suggesting that Obama is a far-left liberal.  He's not.  He's moderate.

I've never thought of that as anything but right-wing spin. O-dawg is only far left if you think a true laissez-faire economy is centerist.

The issue here is that if the right is out in the cold for five years, they can spend their energy in two ways. One is to spin EVERYTHING the Obama does as president, waging an intense media battle reminiscent of Clinton's later days in office. The other is to rebuild the party. Granted the two are not mutualy exclusive by any means, but I suspect we'll see a tilting to one over the other.

...

Well, technically, they could also do nothing.

[Royal☭]

It hurts itself by drinking the suggesting that Obama is a far-left liberal.  He's not.  He's moderate.

I've never thought of that as anything but right-wing spin. O-dawg is only far left if you think a true laissez-faire economy is centerist.

Every year, e-mails get circulating saying that studies were done, and Sen. X is the most liberal Senator in the Senate.  So far to the left are they that they had to install new seats even more left than the previous ones.

[Transportation]

If Huckabee does well enough in the primary, his more populist rhetoric might bolster support for an otherwise mediocre (business-friendly) candidate. This could be Palin if she continues recruiting grassroots support.

She'll still fail incredibly in the general election, but her getting nominated is not implausible.

Basically: Huckabee candidacy + Business Interests ?= Palin nomination.

I can pretty much guarantee there will be a candidate in the primaries who is more appealing to big business than Palin.  I've said before that I think Romney is the likeliest pick, but the Republican Party is not lacking for people who appeal to big business and are not also colossal embarrassments likely to be destroyed in a general election.

Well, the main reason I brought up Palin is that she could siphon religious votes from Huckabee. Although, now that I think about, if the religious voters are split like that it would increase Romney's chances by a fair margin. It's just that I can't really see Palin's fans disappearing like that. Perhaps I'm overestimating her. She'd be a spoiler, at least.

[Thad]

Only if you assume Huckabee actually has a shot.

[Brentai]

Well, this election has been dominated by general nonvoters coming out of the woodwork because they're pissed off by the current administration.  Theoretically that could go both ways; if Obama does a good job but turns out to be some kind of Bible-burning nigger faggot, the college students will all be too appeased to care and the far-tight might stuff the ballot box in droves.

[Detonator]

Well, this election has been dominated by general nonvoters coming out of the woodwork because they're pissed off by the current administration.  Theoretically that could go both ways; if Obama does a good job but turns out to be some kind of Bible-burning nigger faggot, the college students will all be too appeased to care and the far-tight might stuff the ballot box in droves.

That hit me like a ton of bricks the other day.  How will Obama get reelected as the incumbent?  Can't really use "change" or "hope" to keep the current administration.  Much of the enthusiasm is coming from getting the Republicans out of office and getting this idealistic guy in.  How enthusiastic can people stay after four years of an administration?  I just hope he does a good enough job that people will keep him aboard for his accomplishments alone.

[Kashan]

Well, this election has been dominated by general nonvoters coming out of the woodwork because they're pissed off by the current administration.  Theoretically that could go both ways; if Obama does a good job but turns out to be some kind of Bible-burning nigger faggot, the college students will all be too appeased to care and the far-tight might stuff the ballot box in droves.

That hit me like a ton of bricks the other day.  How will Obama get reelected as the incumbent?  Can't really use "change" or "hope" to keep the current administration.  Much of the enthusiasm is coming from getting the Republicans out of office and getting this idealistic guy in.  How enthusiastic can people stay after four years of an administration?  I just hope he does a good enough job that people will keep him aboard for his accomplishments alone.

He's really charismatic, and democrats are the majority now. Charismatic + Incumbent means the chances of him getting ousted are pretty low. The congress however is going to have to work hard to avoid a backlash.