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Author Topic: Primary Wars  (Read 43760 times)

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Kazz

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #480 on: May 28, 2008, 02:33:52 PM »

MORE WITZ
MORE FUN
AUSCH WITZ
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sei

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #481 on: May 28, 2008, 02:38:26 PM »

The place to unwind when work has you at witz end.
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Cannon

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #482 on: May 28, 2008, 09:01:20 PM »

Or just go looooony like a post-traum' casualty, or a Shiite gooooonie, or a reporter on TV...

::3:

Okay, so this insanity is getting to me. Next instance of petty sniping in the media, please.
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Arc

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #483 on: May 31, 2008, 03:29:22 PM »

The Democratic National Committee Rules & Bylaws Committee (whew) ruled today that Florida & Michigan are to be seated in full, but votes counting for only half, with Michigan's uncommitted voting block going to Obama. Meaning, Clinton just netted 18 delegates, and simultaneously lost another avenue to stay in the race.

Obama will have the majority of total delegates by Tuesday, when primary voting is completed.

Chuck Todd on MSNBC: "This is Barack Obama's party now."

:pimp: :pimp: :pimp:
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Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #484 on: June 01, 2008, 10:07:05 PM »

Sadly, I don't think it will really matter, just given how many poor saps from Kansas people vote blindly on the party line.

I DO think we're looking at a majority of party-line votes in this election, as in most.  But questions remain:

  • How many Republicans will vote Democratic because they're sick of Bush?
  • How many Republicans will stay home because McCain is not Republican enough for them?
  • How many Democrats will vote Republican because they don't like Obama?
  • Which way will Independents go?
  • Will Obama bring in a significant number of people who would not vote otherwise?
  • Will Barr have any effect?
  • How will any of these answers be affected by new events over the next several months?  (I saw some chatter the other day suggesting a troop drawdown in October -- this is what is known as an October Surprise.)


My predictions: some; not very many; not as many as Clinton says; Democratic; yes; no; who knows?
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Shinra

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #485 on: June 02, 2008, 03:18:21 PM »

Despite 100% of all signs pointing to the majority of all remaining supers pledging for Obama tomorrow, Clinton has vowed that 'this is just the beginning of a new phase of her campaign'. Considering that when Ron Paul said this his supporters tried to literally seize control of state conventions, I think we should all be worried.
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François

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #486 on: June 02, 2008, 04:01:12 PM »

The more I look at this, the more I'm seeing disturbing similarities between Clinton's refusal to get out of the race and Bush's refusal to get out of Iraq.

(None of these similarities sound like "what? and let the islamulmans win?")
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Royal☭

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #487 on: June 02, 2008, 04:08:37 PM »



And an emoticon, but not sure for what.  : notdead:? 

Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #488 on: June 03, 2008, 10:56:33 AM »

I'd like to think we're close to retiring the Primary Wars thread, but Clinton COULD still keep this up until August.

The last primaries are today, of course, and, moreover, it looks like enough of the still-on-the-fence superdelegates will pledge for Obama after the votes are in to clinch the nomination.  There are conflicting reports of how Clinton's going to respond: the AP had an article this morning saying she was going to concede tonight, but her campaign has since said that's inaccurate.

It looks like she's going to acknowledge she can't win the nomination but take advantage of the spotlight on her to continue pushing for her pet issues.  I am hoping this means a lot more talk about health care and a lot less talk about the RFK assassination and Obama's unelectability; we'll see.

I think she's pushed things too far by this point to be a viable pick for VP, but she can still be a strong ally.
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Arc

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #489 on: June 03, 2008, 02:10:28 PM »

ABC: Bringing You February's News, Today!

Thirty SuperDelegates have already endorsed.

I'm going out for Steak and Beer.
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Norondor

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #490 on: June 03, 2008, 04:02:07 PM »

.
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Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #491 on: June 03, 2008, 05:28:11 PM »

Polls must, of course, always be taken with a grain of salt.  But some are more reliable than others.

The poll numbers, over the past month or two, showing Clinton supporters defecting to McCain, are suspect.  Emotions are running high.  Clinton supporters are upset, and angry at Obama.  While I'm sure some of them -- take, for example, the West Virginian crackers who appeared on The Daily Show a few weeks back parroting the "Hussein" talking point -- WILL vote McCain rather than Obama, I don't think it's going to be as wide a margin as the polls have suggested.  I think over the next month we're going to see those numbers start to correct themselves.

On the other hand, in a highly charged partisan election, polls that ARE a good indicator of how people are going to vote are the ones that show party affiliation.  And according to Rasmussen, the number of self-described Democrats is at an all-time high, as is the gap between Dems and Republicans.

Quote
Barack Obama’s Party now has the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago [...]

Democrats have the advantage among all age groups and also lead among those who earn less than $75,000 a year. The two parties are even among higher-income adults. Party identification is essentially even among Investors but Democrats have a 47% to 25% advantage among non-Investors.

May was also the fourth straight month that the number of Democrats topped 41%. Prior to February of this year, neither party had ever reached the 39% level of support.

My predictions from a few posts back are on course.
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Arc

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #492 on: June 09, 2008, 10:27:56 PM »

And just to round this thread out, a nine minute summary of the Democratic Primary of 2008 narrated by a fast talking, trying - too - hard - to - be - apathetic - guy.

Yes. We. Did.
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Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #493 on: August 12, 2008, 11:56:05 PM »

Primary Wars: Epilogue

The Clinton Memos tell us a lot we already knew about the Clinton campaign and why it failed.  There's an accompanying article, The Front-Runner's Fall.

Again, this shouldn't be big news -- the infighting, the underhanded campaigning tactics, the bitterness were all obvious to anyone who wasn't drinking the Clinton Kool-Aid.  (Caveat: lest I seem one of them, I acknowledge freely that there are loads of people drinking the Obama Kool-Aid, too.)

Not happy with the chatter about having her delegates counted at the convention.  She ran a successful race, and deserves recognition (which I believe she has already gotten), but highlighting party disunity at the convention is a poor way to win an election.  I'd like to think I'd feel the same if she'd been the one who got the nomination.
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