You won't see that happening until they are unseated from office. So long as the Right Honourable Stephen Harper maintains strict heiarchical-style leadership over his party, and continues to gain seats while in the throne the Conservatives will be a bitch to split up considering that unity of the center-right is the only thing that keeps them in office.
True. Also, the Conservatives BURN with the memory of the Jean-Chretien years. Even if the "reform" and "Red-Tory PC" wings have a horrible falling out, it would take a self-defeating troll of David Orchard-like proportions to even THINK of splitting off a new Conservative party. And even if they did it would have few adherents.
No-one wants to risk spending 15 years out in the cold again.
Anyway...
I think you folks are worrying too much.
I think that a restoration of the old order (alternating Tory/Liberal majority governments with minorities once in a while and the NDP occasionally trolling) is well within the realm of possibility. It just takes one little thing:
Either party needs a leader someone
gives a damn about.
It has been said an innumerable number of times. Dion is likeable, able, and smart, but has all the leadership qualities of a small wet terrier. He is about as inspirational as a bowl of lukewarm oatmeal.
Worst of all, his weakness in English kills him. Not because he can't communicate, but because the man is FUCKING TERRIFIED of misspeaking in English. Anytime he has to speak in english, it destroys his confidence. The man actually can display some fire, but he just can't get over that hump.
Contrast that to our old friend Jean C, who's english was far worse but who refused to let that slow him down. He was a firey troll from hell and an ugly, dirty street fighter, and damn did I love watching him twist all of Parliment round his little finger - twice before breakfast alone.
On the other side we have a Prime Minister who's best hope is to be remembered as a small-minded, robotic bully. Stevie is more hated on a personal level then almost any PM in memory. In fact, he's more despised then even Brian Mulroney was after he introduced the GST. And yet he's had no policy failures (not that he's had any victories either, mind you), no, Stevie manages this on personality
alone. Because he's basically a
jerk.
In fact, that lost him the majority. If it wasn't for his entirely spurious and spiteful (not to mention fairly random) cuts to arts programs, he likely would have been able to take enough seats in Quebec to win. Or at least come desperately close. He spent two years parroting about how Quebec was important, without ever actually
understanding anything about them. The thing is, he's like that with
everyone. It was just Quebec that tripped him up.
And Jack? The thing about Jack is that he
looks good - as compared to the two superstars above. See, Jack is that guy you knew in high school or college, the smug know-it-all, and even if he seems okay on the surface, on a base level a lot of people get the vibe. He's the slick snake-oil salesman and the preaching organic vegan all in one man. What's not to love?
Jack is a charismatic guy. He could have had a lot of traction in another party - maybe even taken the leadership (god knows it wouldn't have been THAT hard). Why did jack pick the NDP? Principles? Hah! Look at Bob Rae! Now
there's a man who has grown enough to just come out and admit that he just wanted to take charge and get something fucking done. Why did Jack choose the NDP? I'll tell you why: Moral Superiority.
As the leader of the NDP, Jack can fight the good fight forever! And he'll never ever ever have to really back it up! He can flex his muscle and take the party to almost unprecedented heights - 37 seats, what a powerhouse! What a MAN! This is what gets Jack off (hur hur), of being the 'good guy', of playing hero. But the problem is that Jack's ego is so goddamn monstrous, that that's all he's doing is playing. The citizens of Canada are just mobs in his goddamn personal MMO.
When Albertans complain that people from Ontario are arrogant, self-satisfied, condescending
dicks, it's people like Jack that embody everything they think about.
So.
These are the leaders of our major parties. We don't need another Trudeau, to dazzle people and pull the rug out from under everyone in the blink of an eye. ANYONE of real, solid true quality will do.
Give me Clark, give me Pearson, give me Jean Chretien, give me Paul Martin (oh god, I'd KILL for Paul Martin right now!), give me Laurier, I'd cry hot tears for a Stanfield or a St-Laurent, hell, I'd even take Borden or Mackenzie King if necessary right now (though not necessarily Borden or Mackenzie King).
As has been said, Canada is a friendly dictatorship. And if you want to be dictator, then by god, you need to be better at it than Stevie or Stephane. One of the most heartening things about Canadian politics is that Canadians are documented as having the lowest level of party loyalty of any democratic nation in the entire western world. In my mind, this is one of our finest achievements - BUT it comes at a price. No party will ever truly succeed in Canada without a
damn good leader. The whole enterprise hinges on that one thing and right, we are
hurting. The electorate has nowhere to turn and our political climate and public policy are aimless and drifting.
I don't know if we'll get someone of Obama-calibre leadership anytime soon (or at all), but dammit that's what's needed. This just isn't a country where a political party can cruise along under a crappy leader. Unfortunately, that's what the land of perpetual mediocrity has right now. God help us all.
in before tl;dr
