TL;DR Ahoy!
Here's a summary of how the game's progressed from my perspective. The obvious counterargument to all this is that only the desperate last vampire would go so far and write so much in a transparent ploy to direct his accusers elsewhere; to this, I can only say that I have the truth on my side, that this is how things actually transpired, and that the innocents really need to lynch Bleck today if we want to win.
I'd argue the first noteworthy event of the game is when Kayma (King Dracula)
semi-randomly votes for Verde (Teen Wolf). Vampires nearly scored a major coup here.
Kayma is quickly joined by LaserBeing (Verde's teammate, presumably tossing an early vote on him to make himself look more innocent), Guild (clueless innocent), and Joxam (clueless innocent). McDohl, the weretiger ninja, reacts to the bandwagon by voting for Kayma. The third bearwolf Envy abstains from voting.
Bleck's
first game post is to briefly malign day 1 lynchings, and declines to join Dracula Sr.'s bandwagon. Smiler adds the fifth vote to Verde. My
first game post draws attention to the fact that both Nex and Kayma made one-word posts, and I decline to join Dracula Sr.'s bandwagon.
Nick (probably either seer or devil) and I (probably either seer or Drac Jr)
get into an argument about his math. Verde, the Teen Wolf, retracts his vote. I mention that,
if I supported Nick's logic, I'd vote for Lee-Ham, who would later turn out to be a wolf.
Friday's
first game post is her announcement that she wants to fuck Dracula. She exhorts everyone to bid everything on the invisibility cloak; I was going to do that
anyway, but I assume she's doing this so she can scoop up the Last Will and Scry Detector for a song. Few people have as much knowledge of the best ways to exploit the auction house as Friday has. Friday's exhortations to the innocent team in these first two posts make me think she's innocent, but I disagree with her notion that the cloak-winner should reveal themselves; if somebody announced that they'd won the cloak, I'd want to lynch them then and there rather than wait for a PI investigation. After Bongo's status update, Friday starts the wagon on Envy, a lesser bearwolf.
Still trying to shake some of his heat, Verde
calls attention to the current game postcounts. Guild and Classic, both innocents, accept this argument and vote for low-postcount players.
After more waffling, Nex and then once again Guild join the Verde wagon, but LaserBeing finally removes his vote from his teammate onto Joxam, starting that digression. A bunch of people pile onto Joxam until he reveals that he's the thief. People begin gravitating back toward Envy and other miscellaneous targets. Verde
supports his teammate Envy in voting for Guild before rethinking his position and turning on his ally for his own survival, and throws up a big ol' chart of potential guilt:
DEFCON 1
Bleck - Jumps in to the game as a replacement and then... posts, what, FOUR times saying almost the exact same thing? Looks like trying to remain active without attracting attention. Very perceptive—according to my scenario, this is one of the two main vampires.
Envy - Touchy responses to almost nothing at all. Further distancing himself from his teammate.
G - Pretty convinced he's evil, but trawling the thread didn't give me much of a case against him. My read may be off. I'm convinced this was a metagame call; if you don't have absolute proof that Guild is on your team, it's hard to go wrong by accusing him.
Garrison - Weak reasons for voting, and the tone of his posts seems off to me. The oracle.
Kayma - I don't buy the "one word post means he's the oracle" thing. Laying low for some reason. The main vampire.
In Verde's main list of suspects, he successfully identifies the teammate he's martyring, Guild, and three of the main threats to his team. Pretty good work.
DEFCON 2 (main lump of players)
Classic - Pinging me like crazy. Weird reasons for voting and, yeah, all that stuff a page or so ago.
Friend - Nothing to raise suspicion, but also nothing much added to the conversation.
jsnlxndrlv - Quiet. I enjoyed reading the math. But I don't trust quiet.
LaserBeing - Quiet. Again, I don't trust quiet, especially on D1. (Verde's other teammate)
McDohl - I have no opinion. Why don't I have an opinion? Post more.
NexAdruin - Nothing bad. Likely inno. (Correctly identified innocent)
Nickasummers - Producing content, but a little on edge. Worried by his sudden and strong change of opinion on the no-lynch. (Verde shouldn't yet know that this is also his teammate)
Smiler - I have no opinion. Why don't I have an opinion? Post more.
Transportation - I liked his most recent contribution, and I appreciate that being quiet can be down to being busy. Still pings me though.
Verde - Currently joint lynch leader, even if I don't quite see what's so suspicious about me. My teeth are naturally this pointy.
Zach - I have no opinion. Why don't I have an opinion? Post more.
DEFCON 3
Friday - Fixation on a particular role can be a tell, but I think her posts make it seem pretty unlikely she's a vampire. Look elsewhere today.
DEFCON 5
Joxam - Uncountered good role. Not turned. Do not lynch today, thanks.
As people discuss Verde's comments, Verde and Envy are neck-and-neck. McDohl and Classic
bring them to 6 votes each. Friend gives Envy the edge, and Bleck hammers the vote home.
During the night, I win the invisibility cloak and Nex wins the scry detector. Using my seer powers, I learn that Guild is innocent; I plan to go against any vote for him, but it never really comes up. Having JUST played a game wherein I lied to him about being the seer, I decide not to contact him just yet.
Day 2, Guild
responds to my comments from day 1 by agreeing that Kayma's acting suspicious, but before we can really explore this, Nex and I each independently decide that we're not going to go along with Friday's plan from day 1. Since I won the cloak,
my defiance takes the form of a request that the winner of the cloak NOT come forward, which Nex immediately disregards by falsely announcing his possession of the cloak—knowing full well that any thieves will be foiled, and presumably hoping that he'll work out the ID of the PI by using his scry detector; none of this will be apparent to me until much later.
Nickasummers agrees with Guild's reasoning that Kayma (Drac Sr) is evil, and the bandwagon commences. Friday, Nex, Joxam, and LaserBeing pile on. I'm
too busy being flabbergasted that NexAdruin would
lie about having the cloak to really pay attention. As
I'd mentioned earlier, I thought announcing possession of the cloak as an innocent too dangerous and distracting a move to permit, which is the whole reason I chose not to do it; at the time I thought it was too precarious to rely on the PI choosing to scry the cloak-declarer. (How ironic, then, that I never voiced that concern, meaning it's impossible for my doubts to have been proven correct by the PI's subsequent choice
not to investigate Nex! Ironic and frustrating.)
Of course, the fact that I interrupted the vote-train on Dracula Sr. to suggest we lynch someone who'd ultimately be proven innocent looks incredibly dubious after-the-fact. I can't deny that. All I can do to prove my innocence is point out that, at the time, I had
suspicions about Kayma, but
hard evidence that Nex was lying. I thought Nex was suspicious on day 1 after Friday grilled him over his accusation of Joxam and Smiler, and the fact that he was now lying about the cloak set off alarm bells in my head. Like I said at the time, it didn't matter to me whether we killed Kayma immediately and investigated Nex at night, or killed Nex immediately and investigated Kayma at night. The only thing I knew was that we NEEDED to know what Nex was up to.
The fact that Kayma then turned out to be The Biggest Evil Of All was pretty embarrassing.
With Verde out of town and a long night 2 ahead, I'd have to think about my next step carefully. Announcing the fact that I was a seer to Guild at this point was tantamount to suicide, since he was just suggesting that I was Dracula's lieutenant, and he'd conclude I was trying to pull one over on him for the second game in a row. I wanted to scry Nex (since I knew I'd be able to see him fine), but I didn't want to tip my hand as seer this early. I
tried to spur conversation in the thread while I deliberated.
June 6 rolled around and I still hadn't decided, so Bongo sent me a prompting PM. I'd lost the thread of my investigations and panicked, and picked LaserBeing purely on instinct. Finding that he's a wolfpire, I deliberated. I
posted a message to indicate my suspicion of LaserBeing along with some other people I found suspicious, hoping that on the one hand, the wolves wouldn't realize I'd identified one of their members, while on the other hand, my potential premature death would result in one or more evil-team kills.
I decided that wasn't enough, though, so I wound up crafting the following message:
Hello.
On day 2, I was contacted by someone claiming to be the seer, who correctly identified my innocent role.
The seer has now informed me that LaserBeing is a wolf. The seer specified that he doesn't wish to post this in the thread and tip his hand this early; I am confronted with a similar conundrum, because while it isn't as bad if I get turned, it'll only be a matter of time before the seer is turned as well.
To prevent this from happening, I am informing the three people that I suspect the least ahead of time that I will be changing my vote to LaserBeing later today, whether he has votes already or not. I am giving each one of you the name of one other person that I'm sending this message to as an insurance policy. Hopefully the evil teams will just see a sudden bandwagon of 5 (or more!) people and be unable to determine which of us is the real seer, and if they guess wrong, the seer will have one or two nights to continue scrying and out himself on the second or third day, depending on how desperate things seem. Even if one of you three is evil, you only have my name and one other person's name available, so you'll have 50/50 odds of misidentifying the seer.
NexAdruin: in addition to you and one other person, I am sending this message to Friday, who has the name of the third person. Do not contact her directly, or you put yourself at risk.
Finally, it goes without saying, but you can have the PI investigate me to prove the truth of my claims. I think that time would be better spent investigating people of interest, but it's your money on the line either way.
That was the message I sent to Nex (having finally figured out what everybody else knew on day 2—that it doesn't make any fucking sense to ask to be investigated if you're actually evil); I sent similar messages to Friday and Friend. Nex cleverly asked how much money I had. I assumed he was trying to ferret out the actual owner of the cloak, so I lied and said I had 6g. During the conversation, he let slip that he and Friday had been talking to another "seer", and explained that he was hoping somebody could afford to PI one or the other of us, as well as the fact that he and Friday had been talking meant that my probabilities were ruined because she'd know he wasn't the seer I was claiming to be in contact with. Friday further epxlained that their seer lead them to kill Dracula, and it makes less sense for a baner to give up a wolf, so we should go ahead and kill Nex and try to get the PI to scry "their" seer, who we now know is Nickasummers.
We begin the bandwagon in the thread.
Bleck is quick to join, despite not being one of the people I contacted, as do Joxam and Classic. LaserBeing goes after Bleck in response. Nickasummers knows that something's up and joins the bandwagon.
Garrison, who's almost certainly turned by this point, votes for me. (My critics will say this is just a vampire cagily avoiding association with his master.)
While we're discussing LaserBeing's guilt, Friend drops the bombshell that Nex
wasn't investigated last night, and all my doubts come rushing back. We finally kill Laser, I'm proven right, and night 3 descends.
Rather than spend my time constructively, I'm so caught up by the revelation that Nex wasn't actually investigated that I disregard my earlier conclusion about his probable innocence and scan him kind of pointlessly. He's a vigilante; surprise, surprise.
Before I can contact him about it, he PMs
me, announcing that the gravedigger or whoever got the watcher and watched him last night, and then reported to him that I'd used a power on him. Since he hadn't been turned, that meant he knew I was the real seer. He feels like the fact that I gave him a wolf isn't reason enough to believe that his guy is evil, but I foolishly don't push for a name. He
does report that Smiler is vanilla inno, though. Meanwhile, the wolves kill classic for being part of the bandwagon, hopefully as a result of my misdirection.
We flail. Friday's bandwagon against McDohl leads him to flip out and kill Nex, whom he thinks is the baner. Friday starts a bandwagon on Dizzy. I'm at a complete loss, so I foolishly vote for Smiler until I remember that Nex
just told me he's innocent. I scour the thread for info on Dizzy and Verde, and while they don't seem innocent, exactly, it seems like finding Dracula's Lieutenant is more important, and Kayma's commitment to lynching Verde ruled that out. During the course of examining the thread, I start to become suspicious of Bleck, and eventually
vote for him. Meanwhile, the vote for Dizzy goes through, revealing him as Teen Wolf.
That night is pretty busy. I follow my hunch and scry Bleck, seeing him as The Count and also Dracula's Lieutenant. Joxam and Garrison both die. The fact that we've killed three wolves suggests to me that the wolf team is eliminated, so I decide it's time to go all-in and announce my identity and Bleck's, and the rest is history.
IN CONCLUSION: We're in a pretty good position, but I can see now that I've seriously misplayed several times, and if the innocents fail at this point, I'll take full responsibility. Still, even if I die, the vampires are pretty heavily exposed, so I think I can go to my rest satisfied.
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Topic: Manpires vs Bearwolves IXtreme: MANPIRES WIN (Read 40707 times)