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[Doom]

He looks a bit too green to be with the nukes.

"Metal Gear... is a weapon?  "

[Transportation]

Right, I got that, but Japan isn't really a useful comparison to Iran because they can basically flip a switch and 'go live' if they wanted, whereas Iran is under significant import restrictions (of varying effectiveness), is under international duress (and fairly intense scrutiny), and has an active interest in being an aggressor or threat (if only as a deterrent, though this can certainly be debated).

What I'm not sure I get is what you wanted to say they had as an alternate option. Garden-variety WMD's? A large conventional barrage?

Oh, well I'd have to disagree with you there. Iran has significant uranium reserves and technical know-how for enrichment processes, so I would consider being able to build a nuke independently a given. That's what I meant. They probably have chemical weapons stored somewhere, but that's not what I'm referring to.

[Mongrel]

Right, I got that, but Japan isn't really a useful comparison to Iran because they can basically flip a switch and 'go live' if they wanted, whereas Iran is under significant import restrictions (of varying effectiveness), is under international duress (and fairly intense scrutiny), and has an active interest in being an aggressor or threat (if only as a deterrent, though this can certainly be debated).

What I'm not sure I get is what you wanted to say they had as an alternate option. Garden-variety WMD's? A large conventional barrage?

Oh, well I'd have to disagree with you there. Iran has significant uranium reserves and technical know-how for enrichment processes, so I would consider being able to build a nuke independently a given.

That's what I thought too, but now we're hearing reports of them running out of raw materials and centrifuges going hungry for lack of product. I don't have a handy link, but apparently all the stuff they've been refining recently is left over from a decades-old purchase of yellowcake from South Africa, with their own supposed reserves untapped.

Now I don't know if this means that they actually don't have as much uranium as the world has been led to believe (if it's a lie, it's a lie that would make sense if they're trying to justify a domestic nuclear program for electricity), OR if they lack the know-how to mine their own uranium reserves (which casts further doubt on their ability to do this independently). But either way the answer is good for the west.

But even if Iran had the raw materials, I would say there is a massive difference between the ability of Iran to get a nuke up and going in a big hurry and for Japan to do the same. The speed and efficiency of the one versus the other would be an order of magnitude in difference. Thirty years of sanctions HAVE taught Persians to be self-reliant at the highest levels of manufacture (and for those of us who know, this modern trend is actually older). But understanding self-reliance is still not the same as already having the technical knowledge.

They'll get there, given time, but a comparison to Japan just isn't useful. Anyway, that point still doesn't make any sense. Here's the sentence:

Iran doesn't even need a warhead, really. Japan has the capacity to begin production quite quickly. That would be all they need to increase their strategic power in the region. Also significantly less stupid than a nuclear test.

I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I just honestly can't parse what you're getting at. Based on this and your later replies, I've got:

- Iran doesn't need a nuke.
(Agreed.)
- Japan could significantly increase it's power if it wanted to by making a nuke.
(And this means Iran should... not? To say nothing of the North Korean example which is actually more relevant?).
- Iran has the the technical know-how to produce a nuke.
(Quite probably - but not nearly as quickly as any nuclear-powered western nation. Especially not under such intense scrutiny.)
- Iran has the natural resources to make a nuke.
(To quote: "In the same sense that someone with an iron mine is close to making a car.")
- What's 'significantly less stupid than a nuclear test'? Just making a bomb and not telling anyone? Sticking to conventional weapons? Staying peaceful?

[Büge]

  Mmmmm, yellowcake...

[SCD]

You're forgetting a major key element in deciding foreign policy

Biggest difference between Japan and Iran:  Abe has yet to call for Israel to be wiped off the planet.  Heck, if you want relevance:  India never called for Pakistan to be wiped off. 

Secular westerners do not trust theocracies period.  There is a good reason for this. 

In a globalized world with a functional black market, technical capacity and mineral reserves mean less and less then they once did. 

[Mongrel]

You're forgetting a major key element in deciding foreign policy

Biggest difference between Japan and Iran:  Abe has yet to call for Israel to be wiped off the planet.  Heck, if you want relevance:  India never called for Pakistan to be wiped off. 

Secular westerners do not trust theocracies period.  There is a good reason for this. 

Word up, homes. 

In a globalized world with a functional black market, technical capacity and mineral reserves mean less and less then they once did. 

Mostly agreed, though native know-how, resources, and overall industrial/scientific capabilities are hardly irrelevant yet.

Were you uh, disagreeing with me? Because the former point is certainly one I've already been pushing, and the latter is kind of neutral (mostly it's an academic question about the timetable. IMO the only really relevant question on that point is not 'how soon' but 'does the will for this project exist?').

[Transportation]

Re: Mongrel's stuff

I just brought up Japan because it illustrates the virtual nuclear power concept well. In every other respect, yeah it's wrong. I'll explain it a bit further nonetheless.

- Japan could significantly increase it's power if it wanted to by making a nuke.
(And this means Iran should... not? To say nothing of the North Korean example which is actually more relevant?).

Oh, I wasn't trying to imply that. Japan could increase military strength by doing so, but it could always do that. Japan was merely about the possibility. There are lots of strategic (re: East Asia doing spit takes) why they shouldn't. Similarly, Iran wouldn't make one either because crippling sanctions and/or international isolation.

Not going to dispute you on the technical matters. A time line isn't that relevant for this tangent.

- What's 'significantly less stupid than a nuclear test'? Just making a bomb and not telling anyone? Sticking to conventional weapons? Staying peaceful?

Having an undeclared/secret nuclear arsenal is not as bad as declared one. Israel's super secret arsenal is a good example.

If the current situation is anything to go by, having the potential is probably enough for Iran's leaders.

Playing the "Is Taiwan worth Los Angeles?" game is quite possible with mere capability since countries such as South Africa (secretly dismantled) or Israel (open secret, but wasn't always) have kept them hidden. Countries couldn't be sure and wouldn't calculate on "ifs." Even if you don't think they have them, they wouldn't want to push them into building the damn things. It's a game theory thing, I suppose? I didn't actually put that in my post so I can see where I was a bit vague.

Of course this master plan requires the IAEA to bugger off. So, you know, there will be warning signs.

Staying conventional/chemical/whatever doesn't really count unless you have a lot of it, like North Korea has pointed at Seoul.

Am I still incoherent y/n.

[Mongrel]

n

and thanks

[Mongrel]

Glad to see that hate begets hate, as usual.

[SCD]

God damn it. 

There are coups that try to prevent a country from sliding into deeper murkyness like that of Honduras'.  While the temp administration was balls, and militaries seldom make good governments, or good government services except as the sharp end of foreign policy, they did end that one with a vote and a way out for the deposed leader into the pages of history without a noose. 

The coup we're about to witness here is just going to be plain African ugly.  I really hope I'm wrong.  Scumbag general who's a hero to the troops versus a scumbag president.  Ding, ding....

[Mongrel]

Looks like Pakistan knew where most of the Taliban leadership was all along.

Let's hope this change of heart isn't too little too late. At any rate, this year's campaigning should be damned interesting.

[SCD]

I suspect the high level talks with India had something to do with it.

This sits well with me.  I'd rather see Pakistan doing away with the militants for an asian subcontinent-geopolitical reason, than a western.  Would sit better with the locals.

[Mongrel]

That, and their discovery over the past year or two that feeding the trolls is bad for everybody

[SCD]

Now now, it did keep the commies away...

[SCD]

TRADE WAR!!!

[Mongrel]

Pick my...

[Brentai]

Oh goody, an economic dispute involving the US government and disenfranchised cotton farmers.  That's something you want to escalate to something called a war.

[SCD]

On Afghanistan (and the Canadian involvement in Kandahar): 

While the Canadian army has re-attained their place in the eye of the yanks as a respected force to the point where Gen Petraeus has said that Americans "not just feel comfortable working aside Canadians in combat operations, but are also comfortable being led by Canadians", a statement which I've never heard before to the best of my knowledge - another example of the shortcomings of the civilian arm of operations in Afghanistan once again proves to its allies of it's reliability and how it has improved naught since Canada entered combat operations in 2001. 

[Mongrel]

Canada's top soldier in Afghanistan fired for violating fraternization regulations.

Rarely has this thread's title been more apt.

[Classic]

So...
Love can bloom on the battlefield, but it's the crabgrass of your battlefield?