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[Thad]

The Merge Topics link is blocked by Websense for being a game site.

Wait, is this something that only started happening AFTER the word "game" stopped being in the URL?

The whole site was blocked back then.  Now it's just bizarre, seemingly arbitrary bits and pieces.  Like most days I can't open up the index but I can pull up individual sub-boards.  And sometimes the Media board is blocked as a streaming media site.  And that one time I tried to split the Mega Man thread with the porn link in it and the Split page returned an error for Adult Content (but the thread itself didn't).

Point is, Websense is stupid.  It made international news about a year ago when it blocked the entirety of cisco.com as a hacking site.

[Dooly]

Maybe you should stop browsing forums from work.

[NexAdruin]

I think, when it comes to North Korea, my main fear is that a full-scale war on the Korean peninsula is probably inevitable, simply due to the fact that they've been huffing their own fumes for years.

When I say I hope NK to launches an attack, it's not because I gleefully want to see explosions or want to dance on the regime's grave. I just want them to get the hell on with it and get it out of the way.

Also, if I were O-Dawg, I would be damn well calling SK and China and asking them "So what do we do if these guys really do go on tilt to the point SK simply can't hold back any longer?". Because letting a hot war start on China's immediate land border is bad news on a scale I don't care to contemplate.

It's my understanding that China has been urging North Korea to knock it the hell off for quite some time now, and don't know how to respond to this situation any more than we do. Convincing China to drop all stakes in North Korea wouldn't be hard, would make any war against North Korea easier, and would keep China from declaring war on the USA.

[Saturn]

Also, if I were O-Dawg, I would be damn well calling SK and China and asking them "So what do we do if these guys really do go on tilt to the point SK simply can't hold back any longer?". Because letting a hot war start on China's immediate land border is bad news on a scale I don't care to contemplate.

Yeah, having a repeat of October 1950 (when china decided to get involved) would be the absolute worst possible thing (HELLO WORLD WAR III)

[Mongrel]

Well, for all we know that phone call has already taken place, but there's a part of me that suspects it may only happen now, in the wake of this artillery barrage.

It helps to remember WHY NK is a nominal ally of the Chinese: as a buffer state against a strong US ally on their direct border.

The loss of NK to SK would be a blow to China, no doubt about it. The main issue is that the US is allied so strongly to the US that their involvement in any shooting war is a flat given. But this may make China EXTREMELY uncomfortable (hell, I'm sure even SK going it alone would make them pretty upset already).

The main issue here is China's veto at the Security Council. If it comes down to a provocation so strong that SK must respond or face mass domestic unrest, then they may go to war regardless (or at least up the stakes with an Israeli-style massive retaliation). I'm pretty sure any such retaliation would need to be approved through the UN Security Council, and there's simply no guarantee that China would abstain (I'd doubt they'd actually vote for it). China's building ties with all kinds of governments in distress, so throwing one of them under the bus might still look bad. If they don't let SK respond, and SK decides it has to, regardless of whether or not it's been sanctioned by the UNSC, things could get really "interesting".

I guess it would all depend on exactly how crazy NK got and what it decides to do. Like if NK dropped a nuke on someone, obviously nobody would defend them, but that's just the extreme end of a fairly long sliding scale.

It's also worth pointing out that Japan's response is pretty important. They're quite worried about NK missile attacks and are the other large power in the region (and another US ally). If both Japan and SK start calling for an attack or full-scale war, China may begin to feel isolated and start getting funny about things.

So reaching out early - well before there's a Sarajevo 1914 moment, where one crazy idiot determines the course for all of us - is crucial. I pray SOMEBODY has the wisdom to do so.

[Royal☭]

All this talk about how we could crush NK and just roll in and takeover sure does remind me of 2002.

[Mongrel]

I don't think anyone would assume that killing or capturing one million fanatics is a cakewalk - no matter how unarmed/underarmed they are are.

Well, I HOPE no one's making that assumption.

EDIT: Luckily, the decision to invade NK will ultimately rest with the Government and people of South Korea, rather than the United States Congress.

[NexAdruin]

All this talk about how we could crush NK and just roll in and takeover sure does remind me of 2002.

That's assuming we're out to conquer and not destroy.

Personally, I'd prefer destroy.

But I'm batshit insane.

[Ted Belmont]

I don't think anyone would assume that killing or capturing one million fanatics is a cakewalk - no matter how unarmed/underarmed they are are.

Well, I HOPE no one's making that assumption.

EDIT: Luckily, the decision to invade NK will ultimately rest with the Government and people of South Korea, rather than the United States Congress.

EDIT: is that seriously the lol emoticon?

[Mongrel]

Yeah, that was the original one. The animated one we got afterwards was disappeared in the Great Forum Software Update.

[Brentai]

I really don't think China sees the US as a military threat anymore though.  Economic, yes, sociopolitical, yes, but now that they've finally grasped how capitalism works they seem to realize that, as long as you don't go around shouting threats like their wayward stephchild, the West will do everything possible to avoid a military confrontation.  It's just bad business.

[Mongrel]

It's not that they think the US will attack them or anything. It's that nations have a sense of personal space same as individuals do. Maybe not the whole thing, but at least the bits directly adjacent (lol, Tibet). It's the same reason Russia was uncomfortable with US missile bases in Poland or western "meddling" in the Ukraine.

They'd be very concerned in the same way the US would be 'concerned' if Mexico or Canada suddenly descended into full scale civil war*. And that kind of concern makes people antsy. It would be best for all concerned to avoid making a REAL world power 'antsy', if possible.

*_{Sorry, can't think of anyone relevant for the other NAFTA folks to have a purely theoretical war with. I mean, who's gonna invade them? Guatemala? Well, uh, besides the US anyway.}

[Royal☭]

As a country that's stripped itself of most natural resources and is the distance of the pacific ocean away, I'm pretty sure there are more pragmatic reasons China has for not invading us.

[Büge]

All this talk about how we could crush NK and just roll in and takeover sure does remind me of 2002.

Yeah, but to what end? Iraq had oil fields. What are you going to do with North Korea, put up animation studios?

Yeah, that was the original one. The animated one we got afterwards was disappeared in the Great Forum Software Update.

I blame Frocto.

[Mongrel]

As a country that's stripped itself of most natural resources and is the distance of the pacific ocean away, I'm pretty sure there are more pragmatic reasons China has for not invading us.

That is on the long shots as far as possibilities, yes.

That is not however an excuse for not taking China's opinions on a war on it's doorstep (with one of its allies, however nominal that alliance) into account.

All this talk about how we could crush NK and just roll in and takeover sure does remind me of 2002.

Yeah, but to what end? Iraq had oil fields. What are you going to do with North Korea, put up animation studios?

Yeah, I think just about everyone will agree that a war with NK is nothing but a river of pure unmitigated trouble, with no real benefit for anyone BUT the few North Koreans who would survive.

[inyandep]

if we try to invade NK, it'll be just like this






right down to the child soldiers using cold war era equipment

[Thad]

Maybe you should stop browsing forums from work.

What, and miss all the hilarious and nonsensical filter messages?

I can't access the Tax and Spend thread due to Adult Material.

[François]

US leaks reveal China's frustration with N.Korea

(Oh, hmm, embedding is disabled. This is a short Agence France Presse video featuring a North Korea analyst from a Seoul university.)

Paraphrased for clarity:

They are not serious, I would say, because they did not reveal anything new. The attitude of China towards North Korea has been known for the last few years. The Chinese have been saying it privately a number of times, and here they didn't even make a great secret of it: they will probably support North Korea as long as it stays afloat, but once it hits a wall, once it goes down, they understand that there is no alternative to the unification under Seoul's control, and they are ready to accept it.

It's good news in that they're probably gonna drop NK like the steaming turd it is as soon as they figure it has no chance of winning, but there's still the question of what is it going to take to get there. Do they think it has a chance now?

[McDohl]

It's going to be almost distressing when NK rejoins the outside world.

"This...is Starcraft."

MIND.  BLOWN.

[Mongrel]

Well, we'll see.

I'm actually quite glad to have a real confirmation that the Chinese have adopted a very sensible and pragmatic outlook here.

It was the likeliest scenario, and what a sensible person would hope for (well, beyond them actually applying active pressure to NK), but nothing's confirmed until it's confirmed - you know?

It's also interesting that pretty much everyone involved (except NK themselves) is operating under the assumption that NK will eventually collapse under its own weight. Not that that's a bad assumption to make.