I think "Election '08" is too broad. I liked the idea of a primary thread to last us the next few months and then be followed by a general election thread. Especially inasmuch as we're dealing with a REAL race this time instead of one whose outcome was predetermined ('00) or decided entirely by Iowa ('04).
And that's not even getting into Congressional elections. (Short summary: Arizona doesn't have any Senators up for reelection this year. For Congress, I intend to write in my own name. Because Mitchell doesn't deserve my vote again. Frankly I think the Democrats deserve to lose Congress. It's not that I want to see the Republicans back in charge, it's just that I'm not sure I'd be able to tell the difference.)
Anyway. On the subject of primaries. Most of this is recap for those who know me, but just to get the ball rolling:
I haven't seen the latest Arizona polls (and I HAVE looked) but I'm pretty damn sure now that McCain's back in play he'll take his home state in a walk. Harder to say on the Democratic side but I'm going to lean Obama; Clinton was up in the last poll I saw, but that was before Iowa; she's not popular here and I see a lot of people voting for Obama simply as not-Clinton.
I think Huckabee winning the GOP nom is the best possible news for the Dems. He's scary, and his base is scarier still. George Allen showed us last year that moderate Republicans don't want to be associated with the party's racist fringe; a Huckabee nomination would alienate the moderates, especially if Obama were the alternative.
Clinton, of course, is going to be easier to beat. I still think she can take Huckabee easily, but in the more realistic case of a matchup against McCain or Romney, she's at a disadvantage. I think there's a lot of ambivalence toward McCain and Romney in the GOP base, and I think a lot of them are going to stay home in a McCain/Romney vs. Obama matchup -- the racist fringe who will turn out just to vote against Obama is not nearly as big as the frothing-at-the-mouth anti-Clinton crowd, who will absolutely turn out to vote against her even if they don't like the alternative.
I think McCain is the way stronger candidate than Romney. He's seen as more genuine, and the press absolutely loves him. Plus, he's got this straight-talker, maverick reputation, which is of course undeserved -- he's broken with his party on campaign financing, immigration, and pretty much not a goddamn thing else, and yet is perceived as a moderate. That's dangerous: a hard-right candidate who the CW holds is middle-of-the-road. We had one of those in '00. It didn't end well.
That said, the Christian right doesn't love McCain the way it loved Bush, despite his overtures to the Falwell fringe last year, and the pro-corporate Republicans don't like him because of his stance on campaign finance. If he's up against Obama, that could make a difference -- and in a country that so desperately wants change, simply being onscreen with someone who looks half his age is going to hurt him.
And the religious base hates Romney because he's Mormon. Fundamentalists DESPISE Mormons. Plus, his record as governor of Massachusetts makes him an easy target for all that "flip-flop" stuff they used on Kerry last time. Plus people are throwing around the "robot" label, so he's got Al Gore's negatives on top of John Kerry's. Again, I don't see him doing well against Obama, but I DO see him having a shot against Clinton.
Course, it's all hard to say at this point. Shit, six months ago who would have figured that McCain, Huckabee, and, for God's sake, Ron Paul would be beating Giuliani? (Hell, Giuliani's abject failure may be as good a sign as we've seen that voters aren't taking orders from Fox News anymore.)
Curious to see what Edwards does from here on in. Obviously he's going to stick it out through Saturday. In the likely event that he doesn't take his home state, he's toast, but maybe he'll stick around through Super Tuesday just for the hell of it.
Frankly I'd like him to stick around until they stop letting him into debates. He now has the role of forcing issues that Clinton and Obama won't talk about. And somebody needs to do that. Hell, if Edwards drops out, will there even BE any issues discussed anymore, or will Clinton and Obama just keep calling each other liars?
I heard him say the other day that he won't run for VP again. Which is fairly disappointing. I'd say that Biden would be a pretty good pick for either candidate, especially Obama with his perceived weakness on foreign policy. Biden's only problem is his tendency to say unfortunate things, but I still don't think he could possibly do as badly in a VP debate as Edwards did in '04.
...Oh, another thing: if things stay this close between Clinton and Obama, the issue of delegates is going to be a problem. As Nevada was initially reported, Clinton was getting one more delegate than Obama; now apparently the reverse turns out to be true.
I don't like that. I'm big on the whole "one man, one vote" thing and don't like it when the winner doesn't actually win.
I think nightmare scenario is that this goes all the way down to the convention, with Obama in a slight lead, and the superdelegates pick Clinton. If the party picks Clinton and Obama's actually the guy with more votes, that's going to piss off a lot of Democrats into staying home come November. And Clinton can't afford to lose support from Democratic voters -- she's going to have enough trouble as it is.
