Topic: Thing4 (Playing Thread) (Read 15933 times)

Friend · « **Reply #200 on:** October 18, 2012, 09:44:10 PM »

Hey don't lump me in with them. Anyways, we should all probably vote for destil now, just to confirm his thingitude.

Ocksi · « **Reply #201 on:** October 18, 2012, 10:19:55 PM »

Quote from: Kazz on October 18, 2012, 08:45:47 PM

Geo/Aoko isn't the worst dynamite choice.

actually, was totally the absolute worst dynamite choice.

Ocksi · « **Reply #202 on:** October 18, 2012, 10:21:14 PM »

Destil.

If Friend is for truth our flamethrower, the game rests on a coin flip if Destil isn't guilty: Zara or Gahitsu.

If someone not Friend is a flamethrower, burn Friend tonight to win it.

Kazz · « **Reply #203 on:** October 19, 2012, 05:25:18 AM »

Quote from: Ocksi on October 18, 2012, 10:19:55 PM

Quote from: Kazz on October 18, 2012, 08:45:47 PM
Geo/Aoko isn't the worst dynamite choice.
actually, was totally the absolute worst dynamite choice.

YES I ATE MY WORDS ALREADY THX

Destil · « **Reply #204 on:** October 19, 2012, 06:52:58 AM »

God damn it.

Ocksi · « **Reply #205 on:** October 19, 2012, 08:27:02 AM »

The three players you should have considered targets have been repeated over and over and over. I'm glad you can't pay enough attention to not just throw the game away. Bravo.

Ocksi · « **Reply #206 on:** October 19, 2012, 08:29:01 AM »

I mean, play that stupid just likely means you're a thing. But if you're somehow not, I cannot believe we actually made it to the brink of winning with someone too mentally deficient to read a thread.

Kazz · « **Reply #207 on:** October 19, 2012, 08:33:12 AM »

i can believe it!

this was fated to be a failure as soon as the players were given free will

Caithness · « **Reply #208 on:** October 19, 2012, 09:03:37 AM »

Quote from: Ocksi on October 19, 2012, 08:27:02 AM

The three players you should have considered targets have been repeated over and over and over. I'm glad you can't pay enough attention to not just throw the game away. Bravo.

Wasn't he one of those three, though?

Friend · « **Reply #209 on:** October 19, 2012, 09:13:42 AM »

How do we even know that the thing is one of those three, anyways? If the last thing was the turned thing, couldn't it potentially be anyone?

Ocksi · « **Reply #210 on:** October 19, 2012, 09:48:42 AM »

Quote from: Caithness on October 19, 2012, 09:03:37 AM

Quote from: Ocksi on October 19, 2012, 08:27:02 AM
The three players you should have considered targets have been repeated over and over and over. I'm glad you can't pay enough attention to not just throw the game away. Bravo.

Wasn't he one of those three, though?

Well, yes. But he's clearly stupid enough that blowing himself up would've been a benefit to us.

Ocksi · « **Reply #211 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:00:44 AM »

Quote from: Friend on October 19, 2012, 09:13:42 AM

How do we even know that the thing is one of those three, anyways? If the last thing was the turned thing, couldn't it potentially be anyone?

It could potentially be anyone, yes. That's why we were using dynamite to ferret out likely targets, leaving us with two flamethrowers to clean up the mess. Chances were good for them to hit a dynamite (2/5) or a vanilla innocent (2/5). With three relatively confirmed innocents, any dynamite making incredibly stupid plays (with regards to the innocents) is likely a Thing, the same way anyone using a bonus test very stupidly is likely a Thing.

Destil is our most likely choice for last remaining Thing, since he played so damned stupidly. That said, if we don't burn the Thing tonight, we're done, as they will be turning what is now our only Flamethrower and the innocents will have no way to kill a Thing from here on. Had Destil used his dynamite on Zara (or Gahitsu), we could reasonably assume he was innocent because he was playing to the innocents' strength. We would also know for certain what one of those were via dynamite result, used our test to examine the other. Then we would have confirmation of everyone's roles, roughly.

If going through everyone that way didn't reveal the last Thing, the two flamethrowers could go through the remaining four (Four dead from dynamite, two flamethrowers, two confirmed) players, giving us two 25% chances to hit the target. On top of that, the reasonable supposition that Sharkey was human, as he blew up a Thing as well, increases those odds to 33% for each flamer. After the end of day test, we'd actually have another confirmed as well, increasing the odds to 50% for each flamer, or, more realistically 100% if they coordinated.

If Destil isn't a Thing, he's certainly a Thing-Sympathizer.

Kazz · « **Reply #212 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:07:40 AM »

Destil

Kazz · « **Reply #213 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:12:10 AM »

well wait

if Destil really were a Thing, he'd have seen no harm in bombing one of our primary targets.

unless he somehow figured out Aoko was a flamer.

Ocksi · « **Reply #214 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:22:24 AM »

Destil is either a Thing too stupid to realize he could just go along with our plan to win or an innocent stupid enough to have just cost us the game.

We need to know which and that should narrow us down to two targets, anyway. Then it's just up to Friend (or the Real Second Flamethrower) to make a judgement call and we'll see what the world looks like tomorrow.

Caithness · « **Reply #215 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:23:13 AM »

Well, Friend is now very nearly confirmed human, because if he were a turned Flamethrower the Things would already have won.

Zaratustra had 5 votes on him before Ocksi switched his to Destil, but I don't know if Friday wants to count that or not.

Looks like we have a 1 out of 6 chance of winning tonight, depending on who Friend torches.

Ocksi
Kazz
Sharkey
Destil
Zaratustra
gahitsu

I guess it improves to 1/5 after the test. I kind of want to test Ocksi for suggesting this whole crazy plan in the first place.

Caithness · « **Reply #216 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:25:32 AM »

Also if my count is correct, everyone still alive has already voted.

Zaratustra - 3 (Sharkey, Zaratustra, Destil)
Friend - 1 (gahitsu)
Destil - 3 (Friend, Ocksi, Kazz)
Ocksi - 1 (Caithness)

Ocksi · « **Reply #217 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:26:25 AM »

What is crazy about my plan? After hitting the first Thing with dynamite on day 2, if everyone works together, the innocents are guaranteed victory by morning! That's why games like this are usually random numbers of roles: so you can't find the exact moment where you have exactly the right tools to definitively win the game. With a set number of players, Day 2 with one thing down guarantees the innocents have the resources to mathematically eliminate all possible targets.

Crazy, I know.

Caithness · « **Reply #218 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:43:28 AM »

It would have worked on Day 1, but the fact that there has been a turn makes a lot of the assumptions your plan was based on invalid.

Kazz · « **Reply #219 on:** October 19, 2012, 10:50:46 AM »

caithness are you compelled to be paranoid

so far you've been alternately convinced that Friend, Sharkey, and Ocksi are all Things.

can you calm the hell down

News:

Author Topic: Thing4 (Playing Thread) (Read 15933 times)