So, okay. As the thread name implies, you might want to steer clear of this thread if you haven't read all five books.
Or if you have read all five books but there are still things you don't want spoiled.
Like, say, if you haven't worked out who Jon Snow's mother is yet and would rather I didn't spell it out for you.
Because Jon Snow is where I'm starting.
First of all: He's not dead.
Dance makes a point of reminding us, at least twice, that you can't kill skinchangers easily -- first in the opening "Meet the Cannon Fodder" chapter, and later when Jon considers the possibility that Bran's mind is still alive in Summer.
But I think that's a red herring; I think Jon's still alive in his own body.
Because Melisandre needs him.
So okay, on to Jon's parentage, which I think is pretty widely accepted but I'll give it in brief so's we're all on the same page:
Jon isn't Ned Stark's son at all. He's his nephew. More specifically, he's the son of Lyanna Stark and Rhaegar Targaryen.
That much is pretty heavily hinted in the first book, during Ned's time in the dungeon just prior to his execution. What becomes clearer as the series goes on and we hear more about Rhaegar is that, contrary to Robert Baratheon's Angry Drunken Exposition, there was no rape. Every single person who actually KNEW Rhaegar has described a man for whom rape would be totally out-of-character -- as out-of-character as Ned cheating on his wife.
(There IS, of course, a Stark who fucks everything up by dishonoring his betrothal, which means Ned DOES have a son who turns out to be quite similar to Rhaegar.)
So Lyanna, with her dying breath, makes Ned promise to protect her baby -- and given Robert Baratheon's "Kill all Targaryens, children or no" attitude, it's pretty clear why Ned would pretend Jon was his own natural son. Characteristically, the only thing Ned is willing to sacrifice his honor for is the safety of his family.
The only other survivor of the Tower of Joy is Howland Reed, which is why Jojen and Meera know the truth and have hinted at it to Bran.
But I suspect Melisandre knows too, because the irony is just too good to pass up. I imagine she must be very amused at Jon's machinations, switching the babies, getting Maester Aemon the fuck out of Dodge, all for naught because he has no idea that HE HIMSELF is the king's son she's really after.
So yeah, that's the narrative reason Jon is safe: this has been building longer than any other mystery in the books, and it needs a payoff more satisfying than "(STAB) Oh BTW he was actually Rhaegar's son."
Which doesn't mean he'll make it through the NEXT book alive, of course.
MEANWHILE, there's the question of Ramsay's letter. The most interesting thing about it, of course, is trying to determine what's true and what he's lying about. The mention of Mance indicates that he's at least partially telling the truth -- we don't know whether he's really killed Stannis or not, though. I'm leaning "no"; that IS the kinda thing Martin would do, just killing off one of the kings in exposition (in fact, he already has -- Balon Greyjoy), but I don't feel like Stannis's story is over yet. Could be wrong, though.
There's also the possibility that Ramsay didn't write it at all -- but it sure sounds like his voice, particularly the bit at the end about "I want my Reek". If it wasn't written by him, it was written by somebody who'd been spying on him pretty closely -- Mance, maybe with an assist from Tom O'Sevens. Certainly if Melisandre wants Jon to do something rash, get himself stabbed, and put himself at her mercy, then this did the trick, and Tom is in Winterfell on Catelyn's orders, and she wasn't fond of Jon BEFORE she turned into a horrible undead monster.
But my money's still on Ramsay sending the letter himself. Beyond simple cruelty, he has a motive for going after Jon: Jon is a potential challenger for Winterfell, and Ramsay is even more vulnerable now that his ostensible-Stark wife has fled.
Robb (not knowing Bran and Rickon were still alive -- which Ramsay, of course, DOES know) named Jon as his heir. Roose Bolton knew that, and so would Ramsay.
But to the best of my recollection, the subject never comes up in Jon's conversations with Stannis; it's Stannis, as King, offering to raise Jon up as a Stark and the legitimate heir to Winterfell; I don't believe Robb's letter is ever mentioned. And seeing as it's pretty pertinent to the subject at hand, this suggests to me that word never got to Jon or Stannis.
Mean-fucking-while, I think it's pretty clear that Littlefinger has designs on Winterfell, too. His motivations up to this point have largely centered around unrequited love for Catelyn and taking every possible opportunity to say "Fuck you" to Ned. He's the one responsible for the Jeyne-as-Arya ruse, so of course he knows Ramsay's claim is false, and here he is enjoying a thoroughly creepy father/suitor relationship with the ACTUAL heir apparent to Winterfell. (I assume that Littlefinger knows Robb named Jon as his successor but does not know that Bran and Rickon are alive -- meaning he's one more person who benefits from Jon getting a knife in the gut.)
But it's gotta be bigger than just Winterfell. Littlefinger's endgame is not clear, but he's the one who set this whole fucking thing in motion, by convincing Lysa to kill Jon Arryn AND send her sister the letter that convinced an otherwise-reluctant Ned to accept Robert's request that he become Hand. And then put the Starks at war with the Lannisters by sending an assassin after Bran.
Every single thing that's happened north of Dorne and south of the Wall has happened because Littlefinger set it in motion. Whatever he's up to, it has to be bigger than just ruling Winterfell, and more subtle than vying for the Iron Throne.
The other key player in the Game is, of course, Varys. He and Littlefinger are opposite sides of a coin -- both completely amoral, but Littlefinger is motivated by self-interest and Varys is motivated by the Greater Good. He knows the horror of what's coming better than anyone, and he believes a united Westeros with a Targaryen on the Iron Throne is the only way to stop it -- but he'll do whatever the hell it takes in the meantime.
The ending of Dance is quite interesting as it represents a major change in his temporary allegiances. He's gone from trying to talk Tyrion out of killing Tywin, to re-enacting that exact murder on Kevan.
But I suspect that he was less than sincere in trying to talk Tyrion out of killing Tywin. He'd been chipping away at the Lannisters' power for at least half a book by then, having helped clinch the case against Tyrion. Obviously he wants Tyrion out of the way but not dead -- he sent him off to act as counsel to Aegon (and, even though things have gone awry, I'm sure he would be perfectly happy if Tyrion wound up advising Daenerys instead).
And I suspect that Varys was, if not actually COMPLICIT in Joffrey's assassination, certainly supportive of it. (It probably bears examining the occasions when he and Littlefinger HAVE acted in common interest -- Ned's removal as Hand, Joffrey's ascension to the throne and subsequent assassination at the hands of the Tyrells, and the framing of Tyrion for it.)
And then of course there's the question of just what the fuck the Song of Ice and Fire IS, anyway.
The nice thing about Ice and Fire is that they can be used as a metaphor for pretty much goddamn anything. The Starks and the Targaryens (oh hey, Jon is both!), the North and the South, the old ways and the new, even Varys and Littlefinger or the Brothers Clegane if you wanted to stretch it a bit.
But I think Melisandre's got it right: the Song of Ice and Fire refers specifically to the battle between the supernatural force she worships and the super natural force that's bringing ice monsters down on everybody. And neither one seems particularly goddamn pretty. The choice between Ice Zombies and Shadow Monsters isn't exactly an appealing one, and it's easy to sympathize with Varys's "absolutely any goddamn thing it takes to stop them both" view.
Of course, it doesn't seem like either the Ice or Fire side is exactly uniform. Thoros of Myr wielded the same power as Melisandre does but seemed altogether less sinister (while Catelyn, on the other hand, has gotten quite a lot nastier, starting with the whole murdering-a-handicapped-guy business prior to her death and resurrection), and of course Coldhands seems to be a "good" White Walker.
I suspect we're going to see Melisandre at odds with Bran, even though they both have the same goal -- one more Game of Thrones preventing factions from coming together for the common good, except this one played for religion rather than a crown. (Which is rather like what's happening in King's Landing now, with the Spanish Inquisition taking charge.)
I'm also hoping Martin continues to keep the actual presence or absence of any actual gods a mystery. I was legitimately disappointed by the reveal that the Heart Trees are actually a four-dimensional communications network.
And one more stray thought: I don't think the Hound's really dead. We've only got one dude's word for it, and there's already one Clegane who's managed to cheat death. And c'mon, we all wanna see the Hound be the one who finally takes down the Mountain. (There would be a certain poetic justice to Aegon doing it, but that's pretty much the very definition of an uneven fight. These are not the kind of books where a scrawny teenager takes out a nigh-unkillable sociopathic giant just because it makes the audience feel good.)
So! That's my very long Song of Ice and Fire post. I hope to start a discussion with it! What say you?
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Topic: Song of Ice and Fire: The Books: Massive Spoilers & Rampant Speculation (Read 2324 times)