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Messages - Verde

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 7
1
Media / Re: New Doctor Who
« on: May 25, 2011, 06:20:51 AM »
The Cybermen are back

I'm burned out on Cybermen and Daleks, but okay whatever

2
DEFCON 1
Bleck - Jumps in to the game as a replacement and then... posts, what, FOUR times saying almost the exact same thing? Looks like trying to remain active without attracting attention.
Envy - Touchy responses to almost nothing at all.
G - Pretty convinced he's evil, but trawling the thread didn't give me much of a case against him. My read may be off.
Garrison - Weak reasons for voting, and the tone of his posts seems off to me.
Kayma - I don't buy the "one word post means he's the oracle" thing. Laying low for some reason.

DEFCON 2
Classic - Pinging me like crazy. Weird reasons for voting and, yeah, all that stuff a page or so ago.
Friend - Nothing to raise suspicion, but also nothing much added to the conversation.
jsnlxndrlv - Quiet. I enjoyed reading the math. But I don't trust quiet.
LaserBeing - Quiet. Again, I don't trust quiet, especially on D1.
McDohl - I have no opinion. Why don't I have an opinion? Post more.
NexAdruin - Nothing bad. Likely inno.
Nickasummers - Producing content, but a little on edge. Worried by his sudden and strong change of opinion on the no-lynch.
Smiler - I have no opinion. Why don't I have an opinion? Post more.
Transportation - I liked his most recent contribution, and I appreciate that being quiet can be down to being busy. Still pings me though.
Verde - Currently joint lynch leader, even if I don't quite see what's so suspicious about me. My teeth are naturally this pointy.
Zach - I have no opinion. Why don't I have an opinion? Post more.

DEFCON 3
Friday - Fixation on a particular role can be a tell, but I think her posts make it seem pretty unlikely she's a vampire. Look elsewhere today.

DEFCON 5
Joxam - Uncountered good role. Not turned. Do not lynch today, thanks.

3
Actually: Envy

Being way too touchy and reactive is a pretty obvious evil tell. Or a good special who's uncomfortable with his role. The vanilla inno claim is good cover for either, but it's most likely to be the former.

4
Got to say, I'm leaning evil or aux-evil on Guild. He's associated and disassociated himself with a whole bunch of people -- pretty standard muddying the waters stuff so we don't know who he's working with -- and he's outed a hinted special role (I think, but that whole thing kind of flew over my head). I really don't see how spreading FUD is of any benefit to the village today.

THAT SAID. I didn't see anything suspicious in Envy's post until G stepped in and put forward a pretty convincing case. I'm going to re-read the thread and come back with either a vote change or some more questions.

5
Media / Re: New Doctor Who
« on: May 25, 2011, 03:24:12 AM »
My only real gripe is that the episode was written by the guy who wrote Life on Mars, but it lacked the humour that made that show so great. I mean, they used Marshall Lancaster to basically reprise his role from Life on Mars and Ashes to Ashes, so it would've been nice to give one of the characters some of the blunt wordplay we know the writer does so well.

Anyway, it was pretty great and I'm glad they were bold enough to let it be a slow-burner. The pacing was spot on, and the doppelgänger plot actually worked really well for the reasons Mothra said up there. This season is such an improvement on last season it's kind of ridiculous.

6
Real Life / Re: Left-Handed Coffee Mugs
« on: May 25, 2011, 03:15:24 AM »
I did that exact thing too. And the only reason I installed the god damn emulator was so I could play the one PS2 game I own on disc.

Somewhere in my brain, emulation = downloading ROMs

7
Very little content from Joxam here. This looks disingenuous as hell to me:

Hmm... Just got home from work and reading back through all of your posts is entertaining to say the least. :D Anyhow, I agree that a no vote is kind of a waste, it is very interesting that a bandwagon happened this early, but there is only one way to get things going, I guess. I'll vote Verde also, until something better comes along.

8
Current posts per player:

Bleck - 2
Classic - 4
Envy - 4
Friday - 4
Friend - 1
G - 22
Garrison - 2
Joxam - 2
jsnlxndrlv - 6
Kayma - 3
Laser - 2
McDohl - 2
Nex - 5
Nicka - 23
Smiler - 3
Transportation - 0
Verde - 4
Zach - 1

Sorted from most posts - fewest:

Nicka - 23
G - 22
jsnlxndrlv - 6
Nex - 5
Classic - 4
Envy - 4
Friday - 4
Verde - 4
Kayma - 3
Smiler - 3
Bleck - 2
Garrison - 2
Joxam - 2
Laser - 2
McDohl - 2
Friend - 1
Zach - 1
Transportation - 0

Guild only second-highest poster? Crikey!

9
Your numbers assume that everything is random chance, but it isn't. If you talk to people and read the things people say, you can be more sure than the odds suggest that someone is innocent, which means your chances are closer to but still below the 50%. Making a vote at near-but-not-above 50% odds is statistically more likely to kill an innocent, but its close enough in odds that it is a gamble that isn't necessarily bad. Even if one inno dies, we could still win, losing one person isn't the end of the world, and killing an extra bad this early will force the bads to be more cautious. I think that a 40-50% chance of killing a bad is well worth the 50-60% chance of killing an inno. If we get lucky and hit a vampire, their game is over because they will be afraid to take any more risks, we could hit the devil make it hard for the wolves to operate, we could hit a random wolf which will force the other wolves to be more cautious, which increases the chances of them letting something slip.

A small piece of advice to those who feel like its entirely a random guess today: Posts here are a combination of data and banter. The banter can often tell you as much as the actual data can. You can't necessarily trust the things people say intentionally, but I often times you can trust the things they say by accident.
I completely agree with this, but what prompted you to make such a u-turn? From not lynching anybody and ignoring all day one data, to basically the exact opposite?

10
Er. Unvote. I guess the "stand perfectly still and waste everybody's time" option wasn't as inevitable as I thought (can we get a poll at the top, please?)

11
Words.

If we're not voting and we're not trusting "any data gathered today", then what are we doing here at all? Seems like you're just plain opposed to day one.

But shucks, if we're going to waste a day cycle let's at least waste it fast. No lynch.

12
Yeah guys, lynching nobody and having our seer night-killed N1 worked great last time.

13
Real Life / Re: Astounding Technology
« on: May 21, 2011, 01:29:23 AM »

14
Real Life / Re: I Am Obsessed With Appearances: The Fashion Thread
« on: May 20, 2011, 03:29:21 AM »

Dress like you're British if you want to impress the ladies. Fun fact: the shirt cost more than the entire suit. A cheap suit that fits properly always looks better than an expensive one that doesn't.

My fiancée spotted me drinking Anchor Steam outside the pub on her way home from work and decided to take a photograph because she thought it was funny that the only giveaway that I'd been drinking all day was my messed-up tie.

15
Media / Re: New Doctor Who
« on: May 20, 2011, 01:47:25 AM »
Also I really hope that the only reason this week's episode takes place in a doppelgänger factory is to make fans speculate about the Doctor's death in Episode 1.

16
Media / Re: New Doctor Who
« on: May 20, 2011, 01:42:18 AM »
Doctor Who now has an official Twitter, if you're that way inclined.

17
Vampires vs Werewolves VIII / Re: Would you like to play again?
« on: May 19, 2011, 02:15:17 PM »
I guess I'll give advance notice that I'm going to be absent 26th May - 3rd June. I'm still willing to play if that's not a problem. Otherwise I'll have to sit this one out.

18
Real Life / Re: Your Job: The Movie
« on: May 18, 2011, 10:28:11 PM »
Heard back from my dream-job interview. They said it a was tough choice between me and somebody else but the other person had more experience. I was surprised I even came so close since I fluffed up the interview so much - I guess the fact that I turned every dumb thing I said into a joke turned out to be a better strategy than I thought. Anyway, they said there's a job coming up there that'd be ideal for me, so there's that.

In my current job, I spent the entirity of yesterday playing darts, minus a brief break to get insulted by a former customer over Twitter because he decided he hated me three years ago. I've usually got any number of small things to complain about in my job, but you know what? It's a pretty sweet gig really.

19
Media / Re: New Doctor Who
« on: May 14, 2011, 11:32:44 AM »
I don't even care that [spoiler]Rory died again[/spoiler]

20
Media / Re: New Doctor Who
« on: May 14, 2011, 11:27:59 AM »
Yeah. I'd be very surprised if that's not the best episode of the whole season.

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