Hmm... Just got home from work and reading back through all of your posts is entertaining to say the least. :D Anyhow, I agree that a no vote is kind of a waste, it is very interesting that a bandwagon happened this early, but there is only one way to get things going, I guess. I'll vote Verde also, until something better comes along.

Your numbers assume that everything is random chance, but it isn't. If you talk to people and read the things people say, you can be more sure than the odds suggest that someone is innocent, which means your chances are closer to but still below the 50%. Making a vote at near-but-not-above 50% odds is statistically more likely to kill an innocent, but its close enough in odds that it is a gamble that isn't necessarily bad. Even if one inno dies, we could still win, losing one person isn't the end of the world, and killing an extra bad this early will force the bads to be more cautious. I think that a 40-50% chance of killing a bad is well worth the 50-60% chance of killing an inno. If we get lucky and hit a vampire, their game is over because they will be afraid to take any more risks, we could hit the devil make it hard for the wolves to operate, we could hit a random wolf which will force the other wolves to be more cautious, which increases the chances of them letting something slip.

A small piece of advice to those who feel like its entirely a random guess today: Posts here are a combination of data and banter. The banter can often tell you as much as the actual data can. You can't necessarily trust the things people say intentionally, but I often times you can trust the things they say by accident.

Words.