Man.... I'd been sitting here refreshing the thread nonstop for 12 hours, because I was hoping the wolves hadn't figured it out and wouldn't be willing to gamble. As soon as Link actually died, I was going to send beeker the following PM:

So, as you should have figured out by now if you've checked the thread, I'm not really a seer.

The only way for you to win is for the wolves to kill nobody tonight, for a wolf to be lynched tomorrow, for the wolves to kill the weretiger tomorrow night, and for the last wolf to be lynched the day after.

As far as you're concerned, I could be a wolf, or the weretiger, or the idiot. I will make a case from each perspective to explain why you don't want to look at me.

1. I'm a wolf. I have a 50/50 chance of winning instantly—I know you're not the weretiger, and I know my partner isn't, so I have to pick one of two people to kill tonight. I don't really want to just leave the game to a throw of the dice, though, so I would rather kill nobody tonight (and risk getting lynched myself in the future) in favor of letting you look for the weretiger, since we both depend on one of us killing him tomorrow night. In which case, I'd like to narrow your search while giving you as little information as possible: Look at King Ploobis tomorrow like you were planning to. If you do scry me, you still won't know who my partner is, and you and I will spend tomorrow arguing about which one of us is the real seer and which one of us is the wolf. I'll probably wind up making a case that we abstain from lynching tomorrow and my partner will flip the coin by killing ploobis. You probably won't win.

2. I'm the weretiger. I benefit from the game ending as soon as possible, as long as I'm still alive. You want me to die, but you need to kill a werewolf first: to maximize my chances, I have to give you as many reasons as possible to look at other people, while simultaneously telling you as little as possible about my own identity. Let me remind you that you do need to lynch a werewolf tomorrow in order to win—assuming, of course, that the wolves don't make the whole point moot by acting tonight. You should look at Ploobis anyway; if he's the idiot, I'll know both of the wolves, and if he's a wolf, so much the better. If you do scry me, you'll be able to give my ID to the wolves—assuming you don't lynch the idiot, tomorrow. They'll be able to kill me, but the final day is going to be you, a wolf, and the idiot: the idiot will want you to vote for himself, you'll want to vote for the wolf, and the wolf will know better than to vote for either of you and will vote for no lynch. When night falls, you guys are toast.

3. I'm the idiot. The only way I can win is to get lynched, so I don't want anybody to have concrete knowledge of my identity in order to remain a potential lynching target. That said, I have to ensure the wolves don't win, so I want you to find the wolves and kill them, so it benefits me to help you toward your goal. I know I'm not the weretiger, but I don't mind you finding him, so I'm strongly inclined to point you in the other three's direction, and you benefit from positively ID'ing them as well: you should look at Ploobis. If you do scry me, you can publically out me to guarantee wolf victory. Even if you don't, we have to gamble on the weretiger, giving the wolves another chance for success. Depending what happens that night, you'll get to play kingmaker, but you probably won't be able to win yourself.



SO. In summary: look at Ploobis. If you look at me, instead, you'll put yourself in a much worse position, and while you might be able to guarantee my failure, I'll do what I can to guarantee yours, as well...

Oh well. Nicely played, wolves.

For my part, I was kicking myself once I realized I'd posted twice and people started looking at the low-activity players. I always make a case for lynching the people who never post, so why didn't I think to just be that player?

fuck it

if beeker is lying, i don't know why he would have retracted

voting Link

i retract my vote for now; i need to think about this

it's like sophie's choice, except one of her children is a werewolf

let's just put all our fuzzy goods on the table, as it were

i scried beeker as a wolf last night

so either he's the seer and i'm the fool, or he's a wolf gambling that link or their target tonight is actually the tiger and i'm the seer

cookie, king, link, teeth: are you a seer

(and if so, what did you see)

because if one of you is a seer, then you're a fool (no insult intended) and we know who to lynch instead of nobody

link hogthrob is probably evil, after all

if i were the idiot i'd post once and then never again

since this is a surefire way to make people vote for you

just sayin

beeker is using the fear of the idiot to try to look innocent while actually holding us back

whats up, plushies