Shinra, you are bad at proclamations and sweeping statements about the way the electorate is going to vote. Remember six months ago when you said Gingrich had it sewn up and Romney should just go home?
Tradtionally, has the debate ever really decided an election?
Well, Nixon-Kennedy was pretty friggin' important.
Speaking more recently, while the debates certainly didn't decide '08 singlehandedly, they were pretty important. Not because of the topics but because of McCain's attitude and behavior.
There are plenty of other things McCain did wrong (from "pick Palin" to "be a Republican in 2008"), but the debates were high on the list.
The tea party movement is all but disbanded, they alienated their working class base in almost every battleground state
Like Wisconsin?
I'll grant that the Tea Party Cosplay Brigade is no longer holding tens-of-thousands-strong rallies, but they're still a pretty influential force in the Republican Party. It'd be nice to see them decisively smacked down, but so far it hasn't happened yet. You're treating it like it's a certainty and I don't think it's anywhere NEAR a certainty.
they've alienated hispanics with rabid immigration laws, they've alienated even the last of the log cabin republicans by making asses of themselves in the DADT debate.
Trouble with framing it in terms of the Hispanic vote is, look at the border states -- California, Arizona, Texas are not exactly swing states. New Mexico, plus Nevada and Colorado, could be affected given sufficiently high Hispanic turnout, but combined they have 20 electoral votes.
It could make a difference in Florida, but lumping all Hispanics together is problematic. I'm sure there's a good chunk of the Cuban population that's dissatisfied with Republican immigration policy, but they haven't been targeted to the same extent that Mexicans have. (Rubio as Romney's running-mate would probably swing Florida but nowhere else. I don't think he's a great option, but I'm not sure who the hell is at this point.)
At this point, does Obama really have anything to worry about in this re-election game? Does Romney even stand a fucking chance?
Again, dude, this is you six months ago:
Really, just Newt. There is not a lot of realistic scenarios that Romney wins his primary short of Newt dropping out or making the gaffe to end all gaffes.
Maybe you want to tone down the "____ doesn't stand a chance" rhetoric.
edit: oh yeah also there's that whole thing where Obama managed to preside over the fall of more middle eastern dictators than George did and spend less money on the war while our economy has simultaneously improved visibly over the last two years, so it's not like Romney can even play the 'weak on terror' and 'the economy is bad' cards.
Sure he can. George Bush won in 2004 on a campaign that he was better-equipped to deal with two wars than a three-time Purple Heart recipient. And he didn't have unlimited anonymous campaign donations going for him.
The economy IS bad, and 2012 is not going to be decided on Middle East policy.
The trick is (1) the economy continuing to improve enough so that people feel it and/or (2) convincing undecided voters that it's guys like Romney who drove the economy into the ditch in the first damn place while (3) de-emphasizing Obama's repeated failures to get shit done to fix it.
Seriously, what do they have at this point? Is Romney just a lamb the republicans are sending out to the sacrifice? Somebody less important politically so they can send somebody else out in 4 more years? I guess he IS a new england republican.
Well, as I've said before, his defeat WOULD probably result in a farther-right candidate in '16 (while his victory would probably result in a farther-right Democrat in '16), but I continue to think he had the best shot in the general of any Republican candidate in the field. I think Obama's probably got an advantage, but there's plenty of time to fuck this up.
I totally agree that Obama's going to stomp Romney in the debates, but I also agree with you that the debates aren't the sole deciding factor in this race.
This election's about jobs and the economy. Obama's record is less than stellar, and that's an easier thing for people to see than "We're in this mess because of guys like Romney." The Tea Party HASN'T gone away, Occupy has faded in the news without having much visible political impact, Obama's base has lost enthusiasm, and Karl Rove is raising money from multibillionaires like a motherfucker. Plus we don't know how the Supreme Court healthcare ruling is going to come down or how the electorate will respond.
Obama and Romney have been neck-and-neck in national polls -- which are largely useless because (1) we're more than 4 months out and (2) we don't have a single national election, we have 50 state elections plus one in DC.
So again -- I think Obama's at an advantage right now, but I don't see it as a sure thing by any means.