So, can we talk about the list of real, material losses the US has already suffered in only a couple of days:
- General diplomatic relations between the US and dozens of countries has suffered in small ways; general loss of international goodwill
- Brazil has decided to make electronic privacy an issue at the UN (good for them!). This will probably have minimal impact on the US because lolUN, but you never know
- Some more credible intelligence agencies (notably Mossad, which already plays coy with the US on intel issue) will be just that much more apprehensive about data sharing with an agency that puts WE R SPYING ON U! in a document seen by a surveillance target, possibly affecting counter-terrorism measures
- Corollary to the above: Allied foreign governments may simply withhold or delay intelligence-sharing out of spite
- One more domestic headache for the administration to spend energy on, even if it's a small one for now
- Real intelligence targets will exercise more care to avoid surveillance, even if this all blows over
- Possible European leverage at the EU free trade talks. At the very least they'll be second-guessing themselves under the assumption the US knows what their trade goals are
- US ability to reduce the quantity Chinese government hacking through name-and-shame measures has all but been destroyed
- Forced agreements with allied nations to avoid similar intelligence collection in future could severely hamper US intelligence collection even in cases where it would have been perfectly appropriate; a case whereby they got greedy now they get nothing at all. Or ignore the agreement at even graver peril of future discovery
- New EU data protection rules being rushed in and beefed up
- Pending suspension of bank information-sharing agreements
Though, I'm actually pretty happy with quite a lot on that list.
Boy, how does that high-risk, low-reward espionage look now?
EDIT: The best quote I've heard so far on the revelations was from two Washington academics who said that the damage from the NSA disclosures could “undermine Washington’s ability to act hypocritically and get away with it.”