All the signs I've seen point to Gingrich actively subverting the McCain campaign this year (with help from the Romney camp) for his 2012 run. 2016 is simply too late into the game, as he'll be older than McCain is now.
Hm, didn't realize he was that old. Then yeah, he'll run in '12 whether it looks like a good idea or not.
It's clear that I'm assuming reasonable success for the president-elect, but does Newt really have the kind of earth shattering charisma to go up against Obama as an incumbent?
Newt had boundless success by opposing a popular incumbent a decade ago. 2012 or bust.
Arc's being glib (or has his years wrong, but I'm pretty sure he's being glib). Newt's opposition to Clinton in '94 made his career; his opposition to him in '95 started the slow burn that destroyed it by '98.
Fresh off a rousing victory in '94, Gingrich misread the tea leaves and squandered his political capital playing a game of chicken with Clinton. Gingrich was pushing for a budget with heavy cuts to social programs; Clinton threatened a veto. Gingrich responded by refusing to submit a revised budget and letting parts of the federal government shut down.
This backfired, massively; it was seen for the political grandstanding it was. Newt, of course, shot himself and his entire party in the foot by publicly stating that he was mad at Clinton for making him sit at the back of Air Force One.
Clinton got reelected in a walk and the Dems picked up 8 seats in the House (though they lost 2 in the Senate).
And then of course Newt got hit with 84 ethics charges and it was pretty much all over.
All that to say:
2012 or bust.
Republicans, PLEASE nominate this man.
(I am pretty sure they won't.)