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[Mongrel]

I suspect a few advisors will grab him by the neck if he think of anything again.

Unless he's already MAD WITH POWER.

Normally I'm loath to suggest that any state declare war on another purely for social improvement. The loss of life and massive disruption usually outweighs the benefits of any change in government. Even Iraq wasn't badly enough off that invasion was morally justifiable on the basis of "we must save them from their government".

But the people in NK live so perpetually close to ruination and death that I find it hard to hope for anything but their government being stupid enough to finally resume the war. Hell, if SK is lucky enough, it'll be more like a massive aid mission than outright combat (for god's sake, something like less than 50% of the NK military even has rifles, let alone anything needed to fight a fully modern force like SK's) - though I'm not stupid enough to actually predict that would be the case. It's an open question as to how much of the population is Juche-loopy.

[Cthulhu-chan]

It's more likely and probably better for everyone involved that NK will fall apart on it's own.  It's just that it CAN'T HAPPEN SOON ENOUGH.  Like, 50 some-odd years ago.  >:(

[Shinra]

I honestly think that the NK military leadership is deluded enough that they think they can take and hold the south without the international community destroying them. Considering that the country is run purely on propaganda, it's really hard to say just how aware of things NK leadership is. Obviously Kim Jong Il knew that they were a gnat on the proverbial backside of the world, but who's to say that the younger war-hawks in his military administration did?

It's really hard to say how this is going to play out, but I think that ultimately, whatever happens will (at least immediately, if not in the long term) probably be very bad for the people of Korea if they don't manage to come to any kind of peace agreement quickly.

The biggest question I have is, in the event of a real war here, do we have a massive insurgency from all the people being brainwashed by propaganda over the years, or do the people of NK rise up and help overthrow the government when they realize an end is in sight?
 

[Mongrel]

See though, they almost fell apart happen several times already (each time the country almost starved to death).

Only the government didn't come even remotely close to falling. Nobody outside the bubble was really comfortable with letting the entire population of NK die off, so they sent massive food aid.

Some countries have authoritarian systems that are so strong it will take hundreds of years for them to fall naturally. As long as you can live with that, then sure, there's not much of a case for war.

[Mongrel]

EDIT by way of post: I wonder if the best analogy here for the NK government is that of a dealer who becomes unhinged after getting hooked on their own shit (Juche).

[Thad]

We already have a North Korea thread.

Somebody care to splitmerge?  The Merge Topics link is blocked by Websense for being a game site.

[Pacobird]

You all are kind of underestimating the NK military here.  We are talking about the 5th (4th?) largest military in the world, whose troops, perhaps more importantly, come from a region that by all appearances resembles a cult more than a country.

In general you want to try to avoid a military confrontation here not necessarily because you'll straight up lose but because victory will be so phenomenally costly that you'll forget why it was you bothered.

[Büge]

Yeah, we're looking at the destruction of Seoul, at the very least.

Welcome to North Korea by Peter Tetteroo and Raymond Feddema / Documentary Educational Video

[Mongrel]

The problem is that yes, you can wage war without modern equipment - I don't think we need to discuss terrorism - but due to ideology, the North would almost certainly seek to wage a conventional war of equals, for which they would be woefully unequipped. I suspect victory would be costly in terms of massive life loss, but that most of the loss would be Northern. I would expect a lot of human-wave type stuff, yes.

It is worthwhile to recall the potential threat of nuclear strikes, though it's anyone's guess as to how crazy things will get there. It's also worth questioning how many days the North Korean army would be able to feed itself before starving or running out of bullets.

Anyway, it's certainly worth pointing out that chances are high that sooner or later some North Korean in a leadership position will order something they cannot take back. Such is the danger of living in the echo chamber - even for the leadership. So unlike most dictatorial regimes, you cannot always count on a pragmatic sense of self-preservation to keep the peace. Not that that's an excuse for SK or the US to become an aggressor.

[Mongrel]

I just remembered one fairly important point I had forgotten earlier: Although a sensible person might find the actual nuclear capabilities of NK in a real war to be a debatable point, it's worth remembering they also have the world's third-largest stockpile of chemical weapons. While a whole pile of that stuff may be well beyond use, you can't discount that threat at all.

[Cthulhu-chan]

The chemical weapons are definitely an issue, but NK apparently still has no delivery vehicle for a nuke.

The issue isn't that they can win a war with the south, because they can't, but how much damage they would do.  Taking the fight into NK would be a nightmare, on the other hand.

[Shinra]

You all are kind of underestimating the NK military here.  We are talking about the 5th (4th?) largest military in the world, whose troops, perhaps more importantly, come from a region that by all appearances resembles a cult more than a country.

In general you want to try to avoid a military confrontation here not necessarily because you'll straight up lose but because victory will be so phenomenally costly that you'll forget why it was you bothered.

Having a huge military is only impressive when half of your army's job isn't 'be the guy who holds a few rounds of ammunition so you can pick up your buddy's gun when he dies'

[Mongrel]

Taking the fight into NK would be a nightmare, on the other hand.

They might not destroy Seoul, but Buge's point isn't unwarranted - Seoul is damn close to the border. The South Koreans would have absolutely zero option but to push north as hard and as far as they can, while doing their best to bomb missile sites as hard and as fast as they can. It's the only way to have a half-decent shot as making sure the South's civilian population is somewhat protected.

I learned something interesting today. While I knew that NK's Air Force is largely made up of obsolete planes (their combat aircraft are a handful of no-frills MiG-29's, with little in the way of fuel or spare parts), the real problem with NK's air force is that they're so afraid of defections that North Korean combat pilots are only allowed to log seven hours of flight time.

[François]

If I was an evil son-of-a-bitch in charge of NK's military I would fill every orifice of these planes with chemical weapons and send them on kamikaze runs.

[inyandep]

Having a huge military is only impressive when half of your army's job isn't 'be the guy who holds a few rounds of ammunition so you can pick up your buddy's gun when he dies'

hence, why stalingrad was a major coup for the germans

oh no wait i completely forgot your point, maybe you didn't have one

and please don't act like it's all mother russia/general winter; most of NK is probably similar to renaissance europe technologically these days. ever see a tank drive down a swampy road in spring? no, you don't, because it doesn't. get it

[Shinra]

Russia was, theoretically speaking, still on equal footing, technologically with the rest of the world.

North Koreans are using russian surplus and shoddily made chinese firearms, mixed with world war II rifles. They are decades behind the rest of the world. It is not an exaggeration to say that the north korean military is a God Damn Joke, whose ONLY advantage is numbers.

[Brentai]

The problem may be less what the North Koreans can do but what the UN and US will do in response.  Remember that the first and last nuclear bombing in history was enacted to keep an east Asian societying from literally kamimazeing itself to extinction.  God knows what could happen this time.

Then there's the last Korean War, aka "Vietnam before Vietnam was Vietnam".  The First Biggest Blunder in the Book is in that position for a reason.

[patito]

As someone mentioned earlier int he news, North Korean artillery emplacements are pretty hard to hit and generally well made, plus they are aiming directly at Seoul, so yeah, going to war with North Korea means that Seoul would probably go down in about a day. This doesn't mean they would win a war, just that they would do a lot of damage before they are taken down. So yeah, even if they aren't the most modern military the South really wouldn't be in good shape after fighting them. You people forget that even a shoddy rifle can be very dangerous when it's being wielded by the country next door.

Speculation is that they are only doing this to get attention so peace negotiations are resumed and they can have something to bargain with.

[Mongrel]

I think, when it comes to North Korea, my main fear is that a full-scale war on the Korean peninsula is probably inevitable, simply due to the fact that they've been huffing their own fumes for years.

When I say I hope NK to launches an attack, it's not because I gleefully want to see explosions or want to dance on the regime's grave. I just want them to get the hell on with it and get it out of the way.

Also, if I were O-Dawg, I would be damn well calling SK and China and asking them "So what do we do if these guys really do go on tilt to the point SK simply can't hold back any longer?". Because letting a hot war start on China's immediate land border is bad news on a scale I don't care to contemplate.

[Brentai]

The Merge Topics link is blocked by Websense for being a game site.

Wait, is this something that only started happening AFTER the word "game" stopped being in the URL?