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[Mongrel]

I'm pretty sure that invasions on that basis and that basis alone are rarer than a full belly in Pyongyang.

[JDigital]

NK isn't threatening Israel and doesn't have oil

[Cthulhu-chan]

Also we're still interested in not seeing the Seoul turned into a crater.  That, and we don't want to piss off China (particularly over something with no material gains in sight).

[Shinra]

I seriously doubt China would give even half a shit at this point. North Korea is like the loud, irritating neighbor who steals tools from your shed, asks to borrow money all the time, picks fights with all his neighbors, and then when someone fights back and he looks over his shoulder at you, he expects you to join in. Maybe if this was right after North Korea moved in, you know, before his irritating ways really got under your skin, but at this point you're really just ready to watch North Korea get a good beating. Maybe after the guy's done you can go over and get all your tools back.

[Mongrel]

I think that invasion will become a very real possibility the day that China and the US can agree to do it together.

That seems unlikely now, but should China ever see NK as a real threat, they may just find that politics makes for strange bedfellows.

[Cyan Prime]

This looks bad BOGUS!

[Mongrel]

The Kang Nam left the North Korean port of Nampo a week ago with the USS John S. McCain close behind.

Words cannot describe.

[SCD]

Yes they can.

This McCain line is synomyous with service toward's one nation.

[Mongrel]

You know... I actually thought 'nah, that must mean someone else, maybe someone from WWII?', so I did a quick search on Wikipedia, typing "John S. McCain". I was directed to John McCain's page and saw the tag at the top say "Redirected from John S. McCain" and so I thought, "Hm, I guess it is that funny." and went ahead and hit 'reply'.

 

[Koah]

This looks bad BOGUS!

North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map

"If the U.S. imperialists start another war, the army and people of Korea will ... wipe out the aggressors on the globe once and for all," the official Korean Central News Agency said.

Have they started believing their own propaganda?

...

...this probably isn't my place to ruminate but I'm going to try.  Just keep in mind that I'm no expert at these things and wholly expect this post to be debunked to a hilarious degree and/or end up in Jail.

So lessee here: Their military is about 1.2 million men strong (110,000 in the Air Force, 46,000 in the Navy - for comparison's sake, the SK standing army is about the same size as all four active branches of the US armed forces combined) with about 3.5 million in the state-organized militias (or I suppose you could call them partisans, if things come to that).  Roughly 4,500 tanks, 1,700 aircraft, 650 seafaring vessels (23 subs)... most of their aircraft dates back to at least the late 1980s in design, ditto their tanks (some of which are even older), with the navy mostly being a bunch of leftovers from Russia and China, some of which date back to the 1930s.  That's what's threatening to fuck with us (by "us" I mean "U.S.").

Oh, and at least 800 ballistic missiles, but... well, everyone knows about them.

Considering how our tanks (the Abrams, mostly) performed in Desert Storm against the same tanks the DPRK is using we've probably got them beat there.  Same with- ...actually, in terms of technology, we do have them beat; most countries that aren't still using leftovers from the Cold War are either allied with us or know how dangerous it would be to start a war with us.  Plus they haven't been doing much in the way of military drills out of fuel concerns (the issue not being readiness or training, but rather actually having the gasoline needed to do all this stuff); China cut off oil exports to them in '06 and while Russia is still exporting petroleum to NK, the amount has dropped drastically in recent years and will probably stop entirely if war actually flares up.  Though they do have their own oil fields, the sudden spike in demand that war brings could hamstring them something fierce.  Assuming of course that the reason haven't been drilling is that they're running low, rather than that they've been saving it up.

About 60 to 70 percent of their forces are along the South Korean border, but there's a lot - and I mean a lot; at least 11,000 - of underground bunkers.  Not only there, but across most of the country, so it's not like they're going to be nice enough to leave everything out in the open for us.  What's worse, North Korea has one of the densest air defense networks in the world, so things may not play out quite as much like Desert Storm as the USAF (bless their hearts) might hope.  Plus, y'know, 3.5 million man militia armed with mortars and AA Guns scattered across the country.

Barring the Navy letting some landing craft hit Hawaii out of pity North Korea is going to be fighting a defensive war.  Between the potential for an army of up to five million people, thousands of bunkers, a huge anti-air network and mountainous terrain, things could get ugly.  Although the Army's probably had about fifty years to refine their invasion plans.  Qui desiderat pacem praeparat bellum and all that.

Call me crazy, but part of me thinks that they could be trying to goad us into war just so we use South Korea as a staging point, then use that as justification to roll south.


At least this post wasn't intended to be malicious.

[SCD]

A few notes:

1)  An army marches on its stomach.  NK is proven to be unable to feed its population in peacetime.  Expect things to get worse in wartime.

2)  Tanks don't work as well in jungle.  Ask the Israelis how their push into lebanon went in 06.  This is important as the Merhav 4 is a more modern and respected tank than the decade-old Abrams.

3)  Fixed defenses eventually fall.  Ask the french in WWII. 

4)  A side effect of endless COINops, Canadian doctrine for urban fighting has evolved into something to which destroys the garrison advantage of defending forces.  I would suspect the american's doctrine to be on par at the bare minimum, if not supreme as they have had more hands on through two nations, as opposed to the hottest province of one. 

NK would not be able to invade SK without Chinese assistance.

[SCD]

You know... I actually thought 'nah, that must mean someone else, maybe someone from WWII?', so I did a quick search on Wikipedia, typing "John S. McCain". I was directed to John McCain's page and saw the tag at the top say "Redirected from John S. McCain" and so I thought, "Hm, I guess it is that funny." and went ahead and hit 'reply'.

 

The reason why Senator McCain's torture time during any political debate was relevant to service was because his father was also high in the local hierarchy.  He refused to be released until his brothers in arms were the same.  Nothing like a 3rd Generation Patriot..   

[Catloaf]

So, what exactly is the US doing to piss Korea off to the point where they're blaming us, for wanting to start a war?

Not giving Kim enough Cognac to bathe in round the clock?

[Fredward]

2)  Tanks don't work as well in jungle. 

Korea

 

_{Geography more serious. Korea's on a latitude with Pennsylvania and Oregon.}

[Brentai]

We have a bad habit in the US of assuming that the Korean War was exactly like the Vietnam War but a little earlier and somehow or another we won that one.

[Koah]

A few notes:

1)  An army marches on its stomach.  NK is proven to be unable to feed its population in peacetime.  Expect things to get worse in wartime.

Ooh, good point.  Didn't think of that.

2)  Tanks don't work as well in jungle.  Ask the Israelis how their push into lebanon went in 06.  This is important as the Merkava is a more modern and respected tank than the decade-old Abrams.

Taking into consideration Fredward said, fighting in North Korea is going to be like fighting in Oregon, and however difficult navigating the terrain might be for modern armored fighting vehicles I can't imagine that a country using tanks that are about as old as the country itself would fare much better when push came to shove.

3)  Fixed defenses eventually fall.  Ask the french in WWII. 

The Maginot Line, right?  That's because the French were still in the WWI mindset of defensive wars and the the Germans didn't break down their defenses so much as go around them - the French set up fortifications between Belgium to Switzerland - roughly along the border between France and Germany - but left the forests of the Ardennes (north of the line) wide open because they didn't think that the forests were penetrable.  One million Germans said otherwise.

I'm not sayin' that they're impenetrable, just that using the French in WWII as an example of the fallibility of fixed defenses is misleading.  Especially since "go around" isn't as viable an option.

4)  A side effect of endless COINops, Canadian doctrine for urban fighting has evolved into something to which destroys the garrison advantage of defending forces.  I would suspect the american's doctrine to be on par at the bare minimum, if not supreme as they have had more hands on through two nations, as opposed to the hottest province of one. 

If by this you mean "the US armed forces have a lot of experience dealing with insurgents in urban areas," then yeah, that sounds about right.  They might actually have an easier time of it as compared to other theaters since the quality of life in NK is shit and the people know it, even if they can't say as such.

NK would not be able to invade SK without Chinese assistance.

Which is highly unlikely, considering that if China's not willing to export goods to NK they probably won't provide military support in a fight.  Especially if it threatens any possible relations with the US.

Now that I think about it, NK might be doing all this precisely because it knows (or believes) that the US won't call its bluff and attack.  There's a lot of possible (or plausible) explanations for why Jong-Il is doing this, though whether it's because he's or is open for debate.

Something like that, at least.

[Mongrel]

You know... I actually thought 'nah, that must mean someone else, maybe someone from WWII?', so I did a quick search on Wikipedia, typing "John S. McCain". I was directed to John McCain's page and saw the tag at the top say "Redirected from John S. McCain" and so I thought, "Hm, I guess it is that funny." and went ahead and hit 'reply'.

 

The reason why Senator McCain's torture time during any political debate was relevant to service was because his father was also high in the local hierarchy.  He refused to be released until his brothers in arms were the same.  Nothing like a 3rd Generation Patriot..   

I remembered that. I just didn't remember his father's name.

[Mongrel]

Any invasion of NK is always going to come down to three things:

1) Food
2) China's involvement
3) Just how effective is that state-issued brainwashing anyway?

[Ted Belmont]

2)  Tanks don't work as well in jungle.  Ask the Israelis how their push into lebanon went in 06.  This is important as the Merhav 4 is a more modern and respected tank than the decade-old Abrams.

The Abrams is 30 years old.

[Bal]

Maybe the chassis is, but they've been packing that thing with the latest tech since the beginning.