Topic: iRan (Read 9826 times)

Pacobird · « **Reply #40 on:** June 17, 2009, 08:21:04 AM »

It's a different Hezbollah from the Lebanese Hezbollah political party, which is an offshoot of the one I'm talking about. The one I'm referring to are an arm of the Iranian Hezbollah (called the Ansar) and are under their command. They primarily deal with foreign policy (read as "exporting the revolution") but get called home during crises.

The problem is this Hezbollah also has a lot of Lebanese grunts, and new tweets coming out have rumors of Hamas joining in the fun.

It's extremely difficult to source any of this right now since it's all coming through Twitter, but most of the tweets agree that the government is bringing in Arabs and it is a big fucking deal.

EDIT: Here is a repost of a synopsis off Fark compiled by people who hit the reliable tweets.

SCD · « **Reply #41 on:** June 17, 2009, 10:52:35 AM »

Wait.. now I'm a bit confused.

By the Ansar, are we talking about the Kurds?

Also, there's no mention of the Quds brigades. I always was under the assumption that they were the primary liason between HA and Iran. This seems complicated and interesting, especially with the tweets coming in left and centre.

Good ears and thanks for the link

Edit: After I read the article, I'm just going to shut up on this one. It appears most of my knowledge on Iran is flawed to say the leadt.

Pacobird · « **Reply #42 on:** June 17, 2009, 11:22:49 AM »

no, we're talking about the Ansar-i Hezbollah, which is the main branch of the Iranian Hezbollah, which is to say the local color of religious fanatic. They've teamed up with the Basij (essentially the brownshirts) to put the hurt on the protesters at the behest of the government.

At any rate, despite some general religious similarities and obvious political expediency, Persians traditionally loathe Arabs. For the clerics to call on Arabs to suppress Persian dissent sends a message that they are willing to sell out their own people to maintain power, which is never a good message to send when you've destroyed their economy and use a threat of nuclear aggression against the rest of the world as a nationalistic rallying cry.

What's interesting is that as early as Sunday the actual riot police were seriously backing off the protesters and now it seems like a good number of them are actually marching with the Greens. Similarly (and this is the money shot, folks), there have been reports of uniformed Iranian soldiers protecting protesters from the Basij. There's no confirmation that the Revolutionary Guard (or even just a few regiments) have thrown in their lot with the Greens or if these are just a few isolated troops defying orders, but seriously: almost without exception in history, uprisings become revolutions when they gain the support of the military.

EDIT: I am reading back over this thread and I want to back up Arc on this one: this is not about the Presidency and it is entirely possible that Ahmadinejad won, just like it is possible that Bush really won in 2000. The point is we will never really know, regardless of who wins this struggle, because Khamenei falsified the results in a way that was so insultingly obvious that it calls in to question the legitimacy of Iran's "secular" bureaucracy.

The people are not necessarily revolting against the Islamic Republic, any more than 2000 means we want to abolish the Supreme Court. But the urban population of Iran is highly educated and acutely aware of what sort of democratic reforms their country needs, and what they as a country would stand to gain as a result. At the end of this, even if Khamenei holds on to power, he will have to cede a lot of it to the secular government, and then reform is going to start.

Mongrel · « **Reply #43 on:** June 17, 2009, 12:14:14 PM »

Alright, well, if the reports of actual army members siding with the greens is borne out then that makes a huge difference. But until such time as that is confirmed by something other than the broken telephone game, my bet's still on "crackdown ftw". The pain of self-inflicted injury has hardly stopped the Revolutionary council from making Iran punch itself in the face before.

The link is good (thanks, by the way) and certainly makes me question my previous stance, but it won't convince me on its own. I'd like to see some solid corroboration elsewhere. Sadly, that looks to be one of the last things we'll get right now.

Pacobird · « **Reply #44 on:** June 17, 2009, 12:19:56 PM »

Counterpoint: Tiananmen Square. THAT'S how you crush dissent; with an immediate crackdown, followed by rampant economic liberalization to silence the middle class.

The clerics let this get out of hand and the fact they did not (or - wait for it - could not) immediately call in the military to crush the protesters before millions had taken to the street and "crackdown" would become "massacre" may prove fatal to their hand. As Arc has mentioned, this has become just way too big to handle conventionally.

Mongrel · « **Reply #45 on:** June 17, 2009, 12:47:49 PM »

Only if the reports of numbers are accurate.

And that is the one thing absolutely no one has confirmed with any accuracy - yet.

Pacobird · « **Reply #46 on:** June 17, 2009, 12:55:25 PM »

Which is, of course, the frustrating thing: the media blackout is making it really hard to confirm anything going on in there. But as an American, I admit I am pretty psyched at the idea of a relatively peaceful coup d'etat in Iran that does not necessarily destabilize the state. Iran could be a major player in Middle Eastern politics and as I mentioned, they benefit from an exceptionally urbane and educated middle class that is not necessarily tied to oil money.

Mongrel · « **Reply #47 on:** June 17, 2009, 12:59:20 PM »

Reflection: For thirty years, Iranians have been sold the line that the Revolution was 100% democratic. It is very much woven into the myths that allow the Ayatollahs to maintain control. As a result, even though Iran has effectively been a theocratic totalitarian state, the people have had the very firm idea that their Democracy was both legitimate and meaningful. But the illusion has now been shattered, hoisting the true rulers on their own propaganda petard.

Regardless of the outcome of the 'election' or anything else happening right now, this is where the Persian-in-the-street begins to fully understand how much of a joke their supposed 'democracy' was and is.

Warning - while you were typing a new reply has been posted. You may wish to review your post.

I'm not nearly as optomistic, but Iran has always been one of the strongest Middle Eastern state. To nearby states in really poor shape, like Syria or Afghanistan, Iran was the source for all their manufactured goods and a land of stable prosperity to look towards. It would be nice to see the place before I die, but I won't hold my breath.

Mongrel · « **Reply #48 on:** June 17, 2009, 01:02:31 PM »

I have just been reminded that my aunt's (the only one of my mother's siblings to remain in Iran) son is sixteen.

Bal · « **Reply #49 on:** June 17, 2009, 06:25:05 PM »

One thing I've been hearing from multiple sources is that this isn't just a bunch of University students the way it usually is. You're seeing a genuine cross-section of the average Iranian taking to the streets, which again makes this different.

Thad · « **Reply #50 on:** June 17, 2009, 08:59:24 PM »

Quote from: Welcome to the Forums! on June 17, 2009, 12:59:20 PM

Reflection: For thirty years, Iranians have been sold the line that the Revolution was 100% democratic. It is very much woven into the myths that allow the Ayatollahs to maintain control. As a result, even though Iran has effectively been a theocratic totalitarian state, the people have had the very firm idea that their Democracy was both legitimate and meaningful.

There's a bit in, I believe, Matrix 2 -- the Architect's monologue, if I'm not mistaken -- to the effect that the reason this Matrix has succeeded where its predecessors failed is that everyone is given the opportunity to see the truth and escape...and that 95% choose the illusion instead of facing reality.

Meanwhile, the answer to the question on all our minds: what does Marjane Satrapi think?

Quote

Marjane Satrapi, Iranian author and director and Mohsen Makhmalbaf, an Iranian filmmaker and Mousavi spokesman, presented a document that they claimed had come from the Iranian electoral commission.

The document said liberal cleric and former parliament speaker Mehdi Karroubi came second in the election with a total of 13.3 million votes, while president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came third with only 5.49 million votes.

However, there is no certainty about the legitimacy of the document.

"Ahmadinejad received only 12 percent of the vote, not 65 percent," said Marjane Satrapi, who was the director of Oscar-nominated film Persepolis.

Urm, yeah, think it's safe to call bullshit on those numbers. But Persepolis is still awesome.

Arc · « **Reply #51 on:** June 18, 2009, 12:14:50 AM »

Gott Damm.

Pacobird · « **Reply #52 on:** June 18, 2009, 08:33:52 AM »

I cannot find any information about the mourning rally, except that it was the trump card in the 1979 playbook (mourning rally = more bodies = bigger mourning rally tomorrow etc.). Any infoz?

Saturn · « **Reply #53 on:** June 18, 2009, 09:31:00 AM »

Quote from: P. Birdy on June 18, 2009, 08:33:52 AM

I cannot find any information about the mourning rally, except that it was the trump card in the 1979 playbook (mourning rally = more bodies = bigger mourning rally tomorrow etc.). Any infoz?

Huffpo says over 1,000,000 people showed up.

Also apparently the basji are hiding their faces now, which is an obvious sign that they fear reprisals

SCD · « **Reply #54 on:** June 18, 2009, 01:03:50 PM »

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crackdown-in-iran-as-anger-rages-over-vote/article1181953/

Article on inside of interior ministry.

Pacobird · « **Reply #55 on:** June 19, 2009, 12:41:21 PM »

We're reaching a showdown. Khamenei has declared a crackdown so the passive resistance hasn't worked, so instead citizens are now actively fighting Basij.

In the immediate future it ultimately hinges on what the military decides to do, but even if they support Khamenei, this isn't Tiananmen square; a bloodbath will not put down a rebellion in a culture where martyrdom is celebrated.

Mongrel · « **Reply #56 on:** June 19, 2009, 01:03:17 PM »

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that I can guarantee that Persians =/= Chinese.

JDigital · « **Reply #57 on:** June 19, 2009, 02:01:59 PM »

It'd be funny if it turned out Ahmadinejad actually won fair and square, and everyone is just grousing.

Brentai · « **Reply #58 on:** June 19, 2009, 02:29:29 PM »

That's a very, very vocal minority.

...of course the U.S. has been dealing with that for the past decade, so.

Brentai · « **Reply #59 on:** June 19, 2009, 08:30:27 PM »

I'm just going to aim these guns at you, and if you get killed by them it's yoooooour fault!

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Author Topic: iRan (Read 9826 times)