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Author Topic: Primary Wars  (Read 43883 times)

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Royal☭

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #100 on: March 10, 2008, 06:49:43 AM »

I can appreciate that both Clinton and Obama really fucking want to be the Democratic nominee, but the cynic in me just thinks that if they battle it out the next few months we're going to be assured of a McCain presidency no matter who wins.

Kashan

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #101 on: March 10, 2008, 07:44:40 AM »

I can appreciate that both Clinton and Obama really fucking want to be the Democratic nominee, but the cynic in me just thinks that if they battle it out the next few months we're going to be assured of a McCain presidency no matter who wins.

I dunno, McCain being first out of the gate is clearly providing him an early bumb, but there's plenty of time to campaign in the general election, and I think that bump will largely dissapear once it's a two cantidate race. And I reallly just don't think McCain can beatr Obama in a general election.
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Rico

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #102 on: March 10, 2008, 08:48:35 AM »

I think the Democrats throwing money at each other instead of McCain is being overemphasized, since each of them could probably spend 25 million killing each other and still have more money for the actual election than McCain.  Though Hilary already starting on the fear-mongering isn't going to help.

And on that note, I find it pretty funny that the girl in that stock footage is actually a big Obama supporter and now of voting age.  Really hope the campaign is smart enough to get her into a commercial.
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Royal☭

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #103 on: March 10, 2008, 12:44:13 PM »

Well, the main problem is that over the next two months or so the democrats are going to be spending a lot of money to prove why each is the weaker candidate, and that's pretty much doing McCain's job for him.  If Obama had come out on top on March 4th it'd have been a different story.  Hell, if either had clinched super Tuesday it'd be a different situation entirely.  But now they're both following the proud Democratic tradition of losing a fight they could easily win.

Arc

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #104 on: March 10, 2008, 05:41:45 PM »

The past week has provided me with at least forty posts worth of material.

I'm this close to just creating a Hillary Clinton thread, and then repeating capital letter A's over and over again.
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Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #105 on: March 10, 2008, 06:06:54 PM »

It's a fine line.  You have to make it clear why you're better than your opponent, but you also have to acknowledge that your opponent's better than the other party's guy.  Clinton did a dumb damn thing in praising McCain's experience over Obama's; if the shoe were on the other foot she'd be demanding someone resign over it.
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TA

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #106 on: March 10, 2008, 07:47:13 PM »

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Mongrel

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #107 on: March 10, 2008, 08:14:14 PM »

If there's one thing that so much fun about the internet age of politiking, it's that those stories of little transgressions can make the rounds so much quicker. Of course, increased propagation speed does not translate to increased reliability, but since when has that ever mattered?

 ::D:
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Zaratustra

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #108 on: March 11, 2008, 09:13:40 AM »

Of course none of this matters because Obama is only grabbing the states that'd vote Democrat either way and what -really- matters is getting the vote of Florida, Kansas and Ohio and you bet the superdelegates know this.

Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #109 on: March 11, 2008, 12:36:00 PM »

Uh, I'm going to assume you don't mean Kansas, given that it only has six electoral votes and has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1968.  I'd assume you meant Arkansas, but that also only has six electoral votes.  (Source: 270towin.com)

As for Florida, I don't think it's going to be a swing state this time around.  A recent Mason-Dixon poll shows both Clinton and Obama trailing McCain there by about 10 points.

Ohio I'll grant.  But on the subject of "the superdelegates know they have to vote for someone who'll win swing states" -- the superdelegates also know that if they disregard the will of the voters, that's not going to be a popular move.
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Zaratustra

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #110 on: March 11, 2008, 12:55:28 PM »

I can't keep track of all your cornfed religious dipshit states.

They don't have to be popular, they just have to win.

Burrito Al Pastor

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #111 on: March 11, 2008, 01:19:47 PM »

I can't keep track of all your cornfed religious dipshit states.

Don't worry, we can't either.
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Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #112 on: March 11, 2008, 03:02:12 PM »

They don't have to be popular, they just have to win.

Which requires getting more votes than McCain.

How many Obama supporters will vote McCain, or not vote at all, if the party essentially tells them it doesn't care about their votes and will pick whoever it damn well pleases?  I don't know the answer to that, but worst-case it could be enough to turn Illinois red AND still fail to swing Ohio.  That's pure speculation, but my speculation's as valid as yours.

It's not going to happen.  The "superdelegates overrule the popular vote" controversy is essentially drummed up by the media.  When the time comes, they're going to back whoever has the most votes, and that's almost certain to be Obama at this point.
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SCD

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #113 on: March 11, 2008, 05:46:04 PM »

Then what of the delegates picked by Caucuses than primaries?  A lot of Hil-Dawg supporters might trumpet how working families and seniors aren't as readily available to vote in caucuses as the all-day primaries.  This is important as the baby boomers are aging and are in increasingly larger quantities.
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Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #114 on: March 11, 2008, 08:43:59 PM »

That's an awfully big target to hit.  Clinton can say that the Florida and Michigan do-overs can't be caucuses and have a good point, but dismissing the entire caucus system isn't going to win her a lot of friends.

Not that I disagree.  I don't understand caucuses.
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Ted Belmont

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Arc

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #116 on: March 12, 2008, 08:25:45 AM »

Obama is only grabbing the states that'd vote Democrat either way

Quite the opposite. Hillary was the one that won blue states like California, Massachusetts, and New York. Obama was the one that won red states like Alaska, Idaho, and Kansas. Even if Barack doesn't win these states outright, his coattails can win over more House seats.


So...Clinton's campaign is taking notes from the Republicans now?

Not just now, but since March 1st. This was when the media narrative shifted to forming into lapdogs for her campaign, and the negative assault began. She has played off fear and racism, ignoring cold hard facts along the way.

I am now convinced the battle with her will be greater than the one with McCain later this year.
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James Edward Smith

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #117 on: March 12, 2008, 09:45:50 AM »

A lot of you seem to view McCain as an easy opponent for Obama or Clinton, but what is this based on? It seems to me that McCain is a much more attractive candidate for Baby Boomers (the largest segment of the voting public) than either of them are. I mean I dunno, I'm all the way up here in Canada where we are stuck with NO attractive candidates.

But even if I can't prove that my read on this is closer to reality, I would just like to know why you think it's the other way.
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Thad

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #118 on: March 12, 2008, 10:17:25 AM »

I'm here in Arizona, McCain's home state which he'll win in a walk.  He got something like 80% of the vote last time he was up for reelection to the Senate (including mine -- not proud of that).  So I know how he looks in a place where he's wildly popular.

It's not that I think he's going to be easy to beat nationally, but I DO think he's got some obvious weaknesses, and the biggest one is George Bush.  He's aligned himself with the very unpopular lame duck President on the war, the economy, and generally everything that's made him very unpopular.  McCain represents more of the same -- and this is going to be apparent in a stark visual way if he's standing next to Obama in the debates.  If this election is going to be about change, let's put an old man next to a young man and see what happens, nevermind the race issue.  (If Clinton's the nom -- unlikely but still possible -- it'll be a referendum on the Bush vs. the Clinton Administration.  Which also gives the Dems a huge advantage.)

His next weakness is his unpopularity with the base.  Big business doesn't like him because of his contributions to campaign finance reform, and fundamentalists don't like him because he's moderate on immigration, voted against the anti-gay marriage amendment, and, horror of horrors, thinks we shouldn't torture terror suspects.  None of these people are going to vote for a Democrat, but they might stay home.

Now, the right-wing noise machine is working hard to neutralize that now; most of the people who spent the last year demonizing McCain have fallen in line now that he's the nom.

And of course McCain has changed his tune on a lot of these issues and fallen in line to appeal to the crazies, but that itself is a vulnerability -- remember the phrase "flip-flopper"?

All this to say, no, it won't be easy, but I give the edge to the Democrats simply because America's sick of having a Republican President.  Guess we'll see.
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Arc

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Re: Primary Wars
« Reply #119 on: March 12, 2008, 10:49:28 AM »

It seems to me that McCain is a much more attractive candidate for Baby Boomers

He's too old for them.

The folksy way he calls everyone in an earshot 'friend' just reminds the Boomers of their parents, who they may or may not have rebelled against in years past. Plus, the Boomers aren't the growing segment this election. It's young voters, and black voters, that are becoming proportionally larger. So far, they've been aiming for one particular candidate.

The Boomers may fall in line with McCain, but not in impressive numbers.
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