102's pretty damned likely to pass. They pulled a similar one in '04, and it failed, but only by a few points and only because the language was so vague it could be construed to deny benefits to unmarried straight couples. They've simplified it this time around.
We got a "Yes on 102" flyer in the mail the other day that had smiling couples on it. Brad said, "Aww, look how happy they are because they're straight! They should have one that shows a gay couple and they look mad."
Yeah, the state stuff's not looking so good. I'm pretty sure this is going to pass, and if McCain only pulls off a single-digit win here I'll be surprised.
There are still a few props I haven't decided on. To my fellow Arizonans, so far I've marked 101-200, all "No"; haven't made up my mind on the rest. Leaning no for 201, 202, and 300. Again, if you're interested in a more detailed rundown I can give one.