So Pakistan recently called for a ban on drone strikes, CIA operatives, and pretty much anything US in their territory.
The war's still being prosecuted with hopeless idiocy, but as long as Pakistan was sort of on board, there was a slim chance of a resolution that wasn't hopelessly awful for the US. But unless this can be resolved I think it's sunk for sure.
I think the time has come for a very, very ballsy play. The US needs to present the Karzai government and the Pakistani government with an ultimatum. Either they step up or the US walks - including all current aid to Pakistan. The Karzai government has reached a point where it's actively self-sabotaging and this will never be resolved unless the Pakistanis finally break the North-West territories.
To be honest, it's probably an unfair play. The Afghan central government is a failure (ooo now there's a surprise), and the Pakistani central government would (for the most part) be happy with getting the tribal areas under control - they just want the US to stop randomly shooting them up.
If they do withdraw, use the aid money to reward any of the middle eastern states where democratic reforms genuinely take hold. Basically tell the whole world that from this point on, the US will put the onus on the locals to do something, dammit.
It's never going to happen, but unless there's a dramatic improvement soon, you might as well just close that damned book. To say nothing of the "this area is going to go back to becoming an extremist training centre" factor, which acts as a brake on all possible sanity.