Topic: 2012: The Mayans Warned Us Of Stupid Elections (Read 88565 times)

McDohl · « **Reply #1260 on:** October 03, 2012, 08:45:06 PM »

Yeah, but a lot of media outlets are saying that Romney won tonight, and I'm sort of inclined to agree with them.

I don't agree with Lehrer framing social security as an entitlement. It's a benefit that is paid for by a tax out of our paychecks.

Rico · « **Reply #1261 on:** October 03, 2012, 09:02:10 PM »

Romney won tonight in the sense that he said a ton of things that weren't true or that he wasn't going to do, and because we have no real journalism no one will ever call him on this.

Bal · « **Reply #1262 on:** October 03, 2012, 09:18:17 PM »

He won on the platform he presented tonight, which must be nice given that he seems to have made it up entirely for the purposes of this debate, as I'd never heard any of it before.

Thad · « **Reply #1263 on:** October 03, 2012, 09:21:12 PM »

Guess we'll see what the narrative is. I gave McCain a lot more credit in '08 debates than the general public did. And keep in mind I figured the "47%" thing would go away in one news cycle. I am not good at predictions, because I cannot begin to fucking understand the thought processes of the general public.

The NYT has the best fact-check list I've seen, but it's not really about what's true or not, it's about what people BELIEVE is true. (Remember when Bush claimed he never said he wasn't concerned about Bin Laden? Didn't matter that he totally did; he confidently stated that he hadn't and people believed him.)

** NEW REPLY **

Quote from: Bal on October 03, 2012, 09:18:17 PM

He won on the platform he presented tonight, which must be nice given that he seems to have made it up entirely for the purposes of this debate, as I'd never heard any of it before.

Right, which like I say is where Obama pressed the advantage in the brief bit I heard -- hammering the flip-flopper label again.

Brentai · « **Reply #1264 on:** October 03, 2012, 10:13:22 PM »

I think the analysts are calling it for Romney on the basis of he managed to go 90 minutes without saying something that would end his campaign entirely, which is a lot more than what the bookies were giving him.

Also, Obama's being criticized for looking like there was something he would really rather be doing than attending this debate. Apparently nobody can imagine just what Obama could possibly have been more interested in tonight than Mitt Romney.

(For those who are paying about as much attention to this as the people who are paid to pay attention to this: the very first thing Barack did was point out that this is his and Michelle's 20th anniversary.)

Shinra · « **Reply #1265 on:** October 04, 2012, 03:00:55 AM »

Quote from: Rico on October 03, 2012, 09:02:10 PM

Romney won tonight in the sense that he said a ton of things that weren't true or that he wasn't going to do, and because we have no real journalism no one will ever call him on this.

Traditionally, the debates are never won on the substance of what is said so much as how it is said and which candidate controls the flow of the debate. In the case of who controlled the flow of the debate, the winner was undoubtedly Romney. He dominated the conversation and kept Obama running defense for the entire debate.

Obama could have turned things around at any time with any of the myriad of tools that Romney has so helpfully provided him in the last two months - offshore tax shelters, tax returns, the 47%, Bain and what a leveraged buyout is - but either felt these were better saved for another debate (is there another domestic debate? I don't think there is!) or for attack ads and left out of the debate proper.

I want to think this is another expectations game where Obama is just using this to sink expectations sufficiently so he will obliterate Romney on foreign policy, but i know that's probably a little too hopeful.

Thad · « **Reply #1266 on:** October 04, 2012, 06:53:47 AM »

Quote from: Shinra on October 04, 2012, 03:00:55 AM

(is there another domestic debate? I don't think there is!)

There's a town hall, which will certainly provide opportunities to bring up domestic issues. Indeed it will probably be a better forum for directly addressing an audience that is skeptical of Romney.

Wonder if they'll allow any questions about the 47% remarks. THAT would be an opening, for sure.

(Plus he can always work Romney's offshore holdings into the foreign policy debate in a pinch.)

Catloaf · « **Reply #1267 on:** October 04, 2012, 07:47:54 AM »

In other debate news, Romney said the first remotely funny thing ever to purposely come out of his mouth. That being his first line about Obama spending his anniversary in the most romantic place imaginable, with him. His timing was still awful though.

Mongrel · « **Reply #1268 on:** October 04, 2012, 09:23:53 AM »

I love all the comments about "Boy Obama sure looked like he wanted to be somewhere else!" when it was PRETTY FUCKING OBVIOUS what that something else was.

It's be a lot funnier if one man's desperation to get laid hadn't let a opposing presidential candidate off the mat and risking the (albeit mediocre) chances of a blue landslide.

Shinra · « **Reply #1269 on:** October 04, 2012, 10:01:47 AM »

Obama's campaign staff are saying Obama didn't show up to the debate last night to debate Romney. It seems the strategy was for Obama to stump and then let Romney trip over himself to switch positions on key issues. Now the Obama campaign is running a ton of new ads of Mitt debate quotes contradicting past Mitt stump quotes and alongside analysts proving them wrong.

So it is looking more like this was a strategy to deliberately lose the debate to get more political ammunition for October. Whether or not this was a good strategy remains to be seen, obviously. Given that historically, debates matter little, I am hoping it pays off.

Kerry won his debate by an even wider margin than Romney, didn't he?

Thad · « **Reply #1270 on:** October 04, 2012, 10:09:17 AM »

From the little I heard, "highlight Romney's flip-flops" WAS the order of the evening. And I think it's potentially sound strategy, but again, I am not good at understanding what the electorate is going to think.

My affection for before-and-after videos highlighting hypocrisy is pretty well-established, though.

(Keeping in mind Obama's been guilty of plenty, of course.)

Brentai · « **Reply #1271 on:** October 04, 2012, 10:42:46 AM »

If I were on the Obama team I'd be de-emphasizing the "IT WAS ALL ACCORDING TO KEIKAKU" idea and emphasizing the "His relationship with his wife is more important to him than putting on a big debate show" one, but whatever man.

Thad · « **Reply #1272 on:** October 04, 2012, 11:00:50 AM »

Tough call. Humanizes him and places the emphasis back on his family, which is one of his strongest positives. But on the other hand it suggests he's distractable and can't keep his mind on his work.

I dunno -- I'm inclined to agree that, if his supporters can only focus on one thing, the likeability route is probably the better way to go. But as always I am a really poor judge of what the public will react to and how.

Mongrel · « **Reply #1273 on:** October 04, 2012, 11:25:50 AM »

There's also the risk of rednecks ranting about "SEE?! THE BLACK DUDE CAN'T KEEP IT IN HIS PANTS". But I suspect the kind of idiot who's going to make that argument would explode if they so much as imagined for a second they might vote for Obama, sooooo...

Sharkey · « **Reply #1274 on:** October 04, 2012, 02:43:26 PM »

President Obama: If You Want To Be President, You Owe The American People The Truth

If that was Bizarro Romney I'm still left wondering where Earth Prime Obama was hiding. Maybe he was just trying to give the guy enough rope to hang himself, but it seemed more like the Chewbacca defense made his head asplode. Hopefully that only works once.

Ted Belmont · « **Reply #1275 on:** October 04, 2012, 03:11:02 PM »

Quote from: Shinra on October 04, 2012, 10:01:47 AM

So it is looking more like this was a strategy to deliberately lose the debate to get more political ammunition for October. Whether or not this was a good strategy remains to be seen, obviously. Given that historically, debates matter little, I am hoping it pays off.

Kerry won his debate by an even wider margin than Romney, didn't he?

NPR had a segment this morning about how, historically, first debates have never been a good predictor for who will win the election, or even the next debate. They interviewed Walter Mondale's former teacher(can't remember his name, but I'm sure Thad will) who helped him prepare by standing in for Reagan in his practices. One memorable moment he recalled was when they were discussing Medicare, and Mondale was talking about how without Medicare, his mother probably would have ended up on welfare. His teacher(as Reagan)'s response: "Well, I would hope that Mrs. Mondale's eldest son would have stepped up to take care of her before that would happen."

Ziiro · « **Reply #1276 on:** October 04, 2012, 03:16:47 PM »

I posted this in videodrome like 6 months ago, but it's more relevant than ever.

Will The Real Mitt Romney Please Stand Up (feat. Eminem)

Shinra · « **Reply #1277 on:** October 05, 2012, 03:06:56 AM »

"So Mitt, we've won the first debate, everyone is talking about how we floored Obummer, and he didn't mention any of our worst sticking points even once! How do we take it to the offensive against Obongo Bin Laden now?"

"I know - how about I apologize for the 47% video everybody finally stopped fucking talking about!"

Shinra · « **Reply #1278 on:** October 05, 2012, 05:50:53 AM »

The 11-dimensional chess argument gets a little more plausible. There's no way that Obama didn't know about these jobs numbers going into the debate on wednesday. There's no way the Romney Won the Debate narrative continues after unemployment sinks to 7.8%.

Thad · « **Reply #1279 on:** October 05, 2012, 07:08:06 AM »

That's the problem with spending the past two years repeating the phrase "over 8%".

Because guess what, 7.8 isn't that damn much different from 8, but we've spent decades being conditioned to think that $59.99 is fifty dollars, not sixty.

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Author Topic: 2012: The Mayans Warned Us Of Stupid Elections (Read 88565 times)