I think I've told the story, but a watershed moment in my understanding of where this world is going occurred back in 1992.
[...]
I was reading about the American primaries and saw that McCain (at the time) had far and away the best shot of any of the potential candidates, based on polling at the time (yeah, I know polls are always suspect, but I digress). In spite of his huge advantage in electability among the various Republican candidates, the GOP chose to go with Bush (who, I might add was being derided even then for being noticeably dumber than Quayle).
Huh? We talking '92 or '00? Daddy or Junior Bush?
I would certainly not describe Poppy as dumber than Quayle, whatever else was wrong with him. And when's the last time an incumbent lost the primaries?
(EDIT:
Truman.)
The problem with Romney is that Obamacare is almost totally his brainchild.
So you're saying that nominating him would require Republican voters to have some sort of cognitive dissonance?
Put another way, who in the GOP establishment is going to endorse Romney over another equally-conservative candidate who doesn't have this kind of liability? What could they possibly stand to gain with their base by doing so?
The possibility of winning a general election.
For all they dumped on McCain in '08 (and '00 -- and, hell, I had a boss with a "John McCain, RINO" bumper sticker in '06, in ARIZONA), they were all set to close ranks behind him once he got the nomination.
...anyhow, that's not what I said. I didn't say he'd win the nom, I just said his winning the nom and picking Huckabee as a running-mate was the GOP's only shot in '12.
Primaries are hard to predict. Remember when it looked like McCain didn't have a prayer? Hell, did anyone think Ron Paul would do better than Rudy Giuliani?
And even if the Tea Party continues to be a major force in the '12 primaries, they're not exactly a unified movement either. You've got as many Ayn Randers as religious fundies. Not that Romney's likely to be the choice of either faction, but he could come out on top after a split Tea Party vote in the first couple primaries.
A Palin/Bachmann 2012 ticket would be fantastic. Unfortunately, it will never happen.
Palin never had a shot at the nom, and now she's at her absolute lowest ebb. The only way she'll have a shot at it now is if she shuts the hell up for the next eight months.
So, like you say, never happen.