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[McDohl]

I thought I'd get this thread kicked off early on the lighter side:


http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gKCI31y6T8SKPpz-8lh0Kyvq1jAgD9IMD2R02?docId=D9IMD2R02


Robert Burck throws his hat in the ring, registered as a Republican in Ohio, for the 2012 presidential election.  He claims to be running as a part of the Tea Party movement.


What does this guy do on his off-time?  He stands in Times Square in his underwear, a pair of boots, and a cowboy hat, calling himself the Naked Cowboy.


EDIT: ...oh god, that headline.  I JUST GOT IT. 

[McDohl]

So now that the 2010 stuff is over, Speculations for 2 years down the road!

GO!

[Thad]

GOP still doesn't have a visible candidate who's actually got a shot at winning.  Anyone have any ideas there?

[McDohl]

Rick Perry, maybe? :/

[Pacobird]

NEWT 2012 BABY

[Shinra]

I keep hearing people say that unironically. It would be pretty hilarious if every major republican presidential candidate this election cycle had some horrible skeletons in their closet preventing them from ever getting elected. The primary fight would be great. "Sure, I cheated on my wife, had dozens of ethics violations and eventually resigned as the worst republican speaker of the house in recorded history, but at least I didn't quit being a governor because all the media attention was bothering my family!"

[TA]

There's always some warhawking fucknut trotting out Petraeus, too.

[Brentai]

Joe Lieberman.

[Thad]

Bad news is, if 2000 taught us anything, it's that even when Lieberman loses he still gets to keep his Senate seat.

[Mongrel]

Maybe they'll convince Jeb Bush to change his mind.

But if he's smarter than his brother, he'll turn it down

[Thad]

Still way too soon.  While I think the mainstream will eventually forget how bad Bush was, I also don't think it's happened yet.

[Brentai]

Will it happen after 2 more years of THE PRESIDENT'S A MUSLIM!!!?

[Mongrel]

Something a fellow I know raised:

Yeah so somebody mentioned the 33 senate seats in 2012.  This is something I follow and care about, so here.

CA - Feinstein (D):  If you can't beat Boxer in this environment you can't beat Feinstein in an inevitably better Dem environment.
DE - Carper (D):  If Carper's health problems drive him out and Castle wins a Republican primary, this could be relevant.  If Carper runs he wins.
FL - Nelson (D):  Nelson always has high approval ratings.  He has tons of cash, too.  LeMieux sounds like a tough opponent if he runs but Nelson feels good to me.
HI - Akaka (D):  If Linda Lingle wins the Republican primary and...oh whatever you don't beat the Dem with Obama on the ballot in one of his apparently 11 home states.
MD - Cardin (D):  Maryland keeps getting more democratic and Cardin is well-liked.  Nope.
MI - Stabenow (D):  Stabenow never does really well.  I think the auto industry is recovering a little but she may not be able to run on that anyway...but black turnout in an Obama election might really help her downballot.  Competitive race, especially if John Engler comes after it...he might even be favored.
MN - Klobuchar (D):  Locally well-liked but she feels potentially vulnerable to a really strong candidate (ie not Norm Coleman, who everyone hates after acting like a recount dick).
MO - McCaskill (D):  Tough fight on her hands.
MT - Tester (D):  Rough state for a pretty generic - if personally interesting - Democrat.  Gut says he gets beat unless there is a green jobs initiative or something he can run on.
NE - Nelson (D):  This guy is super-moderate and could even join the GOP before this election.  He'd get Tea Partied though.  He'll lose.  What happened to this state?  Remember Bob Kerrey?
NJ - Menendez (D):  Senate races in New Jersey go "Dems look vulnerable, win anyway."  If Lou Dobbs runs as an independent, Menendez=winner.  If Chris Christie or some real republican runs, he could lose.
NM - Bingaman (D):  Bingaman never loses.
NY - Gillibrand (D):  lol no
ND - Conrad (D): If Conrad runs, he could win (55/45 maybe?).  No other Democrat could.
OH - Brown (D):  In the polling hell that was the summer, he looked pretty good in approval-type polls.  He's way left of his state but is likable.  Might be in jeopardy anyway.
PA - Casey (D): Swing state and all that, but Casey is a former popular governor and looks strong.
RI - Whitehouse (D): lol no
VA - Webb (D): Jim Webb is a moderate and has been a pretty good senator so far, but George Allen looms.  Depends on the timbre of the state overall.  Definitely a key race.
WV - Manchin (D): In the Tea Party Race this moderate democrat won anyway.  He'll win again.
WI - Kohl (D): If Feingold couldn't win, isn't Kohl more vulnerable?  If Kohl retires, this seat is an absolute tossup...and might have Feingold in the race again.

CT - Lieberman (assface party): God I dunno.  He can't win a Democratic primary, can he?  Does he just run as an independent again?  I have no idea what happens here, but it doesn't go Republican.
VT - Sanders (lefty): nope

AZ - Kyl (R):  Arizona gets more and more right, it seems.  Nope.
IN - Lugar (R):  lol no
ME - Snowe (R):  gets primaried and goes the Lieberman route?  Tough one.
MA - Brown (R):  Loses.  No chance.
MS - Wicker (R):  lol no
NV - Ensign (R):  I suspect this race will be highly volatile, hard to poll, and Ensign might even get Tea Partied because he's a douchebag.  Vulnerable but only under the right circumstances.
TN - Corker (R):  Tennessee doesn't seem to have any democrats left.
TX - Hutchison (R):  watch for Tea Partiers, Kay.  Otherwise, it's Texas...whatever.
UT - Hatch (R):  watch for Tea Partiers, Orrin.  Otherwise, it's Utah...whatever.
WY - Barrasso (R):  lol no

So yeah.  This is a year where the Dems have a lot more defense to play, for sure.  It wouldn't shock me to see Obama win but lose the Senate just because of this math.

EDIT:  I left out Maria Cantwell, WA.  Washington is precisely that state where Republicans can come within 2,000 votes but no better.  Nope.

Thoughts?

[Thad]

Will it happen after 2 more years of THE PRESIDENT'S A MUSLIM!!!?

Again, the people who believe the President is a Muslim are the same ones who think Bush was a great President.  The right doesn't have to worry about winning them over, just about getting them out to vote.

Thoughts?

If Ben Nelson got replaced with a Republican, would anybody notice?

And everybody already hated Norm Coleman.  His electoral career is a joke.  Literally.  A pro wrestler, a comedian, and a dead guy walk into a bar...

[Mongrel]

Oh man, this is too good:

Dubya says Palin 'unqualified'

[Thad]

GEORGE W BUSH DOES NOT REPRESENT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND NEVER DID
WE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN AT WAR WITH EURASIA

[Mongrel]

I just love how you can see he's overjoyed that he's finally got someone so obviously dumber than himself that he can gleefully put the boots to.

"Think less of McCain as a man" BWAHAHAHA.

[Bal]

To be fair, thinking less of McCain for indulging Palin is perfectly valid, even if you are yourself a moron. I can't think of a single person in the GOP that has a chance against Obama in 2012, or a single democrat that could unseat Obama in the primaries. The main issue here is most democrats actually have no testicles at all, and the GOP is literally imploding under the mass of it's Tea Party core. They literally can't get more conservative without opting for open revolution. Shit is going to go supernova when they find out that their majority is meaningless because half of the new seats won't play ball at all.

EDIT: I wonder if someone could do a decent image of an elephant consuming itself ouroborus style

[Brentai]

I dunno, I can't be the only person who's looking back and thinking we tossed Clinton aside for being the exact thing the Democrats need most right now (read: an uncompromising total bitch.)

[Shinra]

Well, to be honest, I don't think Hillary could have beaten McCain. McCain would have probably picked a different running mate (probably a black guy, maybe Colin Powell?) and likely slaughtered her. And of course, we all thought that this young, charismatic idealist would come in and change politics as usual and be a real leader for the Democrats like Kennedy was, but as it's turned out, he was exactly as inexperienced as his detractors said he was and has no ability to lead his party.

Maybe if Obama had picked Hillary as his running mate, we'd have a VP who actually, you know, did things. I get that it's not their job, but for fuck's sake, all Biden has managed to do is say a bunch of embarrassing shit to the point where we're hiding him away whenever possible so he does not open his big dumb mouth, another one of those things detractors said Biden would do, and were right about. A big part of why Bush was able to accomplish so much of his (fucking stupid) agenda was because Cheney was POTUS II, and maybe if we had a power-hungry rattlesnake with no regard for protocol, we could get shit done.