Topic: Manpires vs Bearwolves IXtreme: MANPIRES WIN (Read 43546 times)

Nickasummers · « **Reply #20 on:** May 22, 2011, 04:21:40 AM »

Lynching someone on Day 1 is statistically a bad idea. There is not enough information to make an educated guess, and if you pick someone at random you are more likely to hit an inno. HOWEVER, that does not mean that lynching on day 1 is ALWAYS a bad idea. The question you should be asking yourself is "Do we need luck to win with the current set of rules, or can the innocents feasably get by on skill alone?" With a Day 1 lynch the odds are against the innos, but not terribly so, so if you feel that the ruleset is rigged against you, then it makes sense to take the gamble. That said, I think the rules are perfectly fair to us, so I am going to no vote today.

Verde · « **Reply #21 on:** May 22, 2011, 05:08:16 AM »

Yeah guys, lynching nobody and having our seer night-killed N1 worked great last time.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #22 on:** May 22, 2011, 05:28:09 AM »

Quote from: Verde on May 22, 2011, 05:08:16 AM

Yeah guys, lynching nobody and having our seer night-killed N1 worked great last time.

Your argument is useless and irrelevant. The day 1 lynch doesn't affect night-kills. You could have lynched literally anyone and it would not have mattered. The only way you could have stopped your seer being night killed would have been by lynching him, which doesn't help you at all. If you have a GOOD reason to lynch somebody, say it, and we will listen, but don't throw down useless posts like that unless you want people to think you are a ManBearTiger

the asshole you hate · « **Reply #23 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:04:38 AM »

While Nickasummers has a great idea conflagrating Verde's posts into a mountain of evil, I really do agree with Verde that it's pointless to no-lynch.

You want Verde to NOT throw down 'useless' posts on day 1 with nothing done yet? It's the freaking random vote stage! Stop being so harsh so early!

Envy, you didn't do much to convince me to change votes!

Nickasummers · « **Reply #24 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:12:20 AM »

First off, I'm not trying to make Verde look evil, I am just saying that his argument doesn't work.

I personally don't think we should lynch, but I can understand a day 1 lynch. Its a pure gamble. If you hit an inno, you have not done a damn thing to help the innos, but you have helped the bads. If you hit a bad, you help the innos. But, hitting a bad wont stop someone from getting bitten the first night. SOMEONE is going to die no matter what you do. Since you are more likely to hit an inno, a random lynch on day 1 will probably just kill an inno. On the off chance you DO hit a bad, that is a MAJOR aid to innocent goal, but the odds are NOT in favor of that happening. I don't buy lottery tickets, I don't gamble, and I don't day 1 lynch. Sure, you COULD win, but you PROBABLY wont.

the asshole you hate · « **Reply #25 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:17:28 AM »

The way we find manpires and bearwolves is by voting and watching the patterns that emerge. I just don't see a point in disregarding the BEST MECHANIC we have because it's 'hopeless' in YOUR estimation. Remember that the votes that happen NOW will help us LATER to determine who is a manbearpire.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #26 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:24:25 AM »

Yes, but you can't trust Day 1 votes for that purpose. The innos will either no vote or vote totally randomly, telling you nothing. The bad will probably vote for someone outside of their team because it will look random anyway, but might vote for an ally to add credibility later. None of that tells us anything at all. I would be inclined to totally ignore all votes from day 1 because the information is polluted by the total lack of information. Day 1 is a day to talk, not to vote. night 1 will bring with it information that we CAN use.

the asshole you hate · « **Reply #27 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:41:29 AM »

Mmm, it's weird how you know what manbearpires will do today.

How about we make ourselves represent either side of the argument and let others decide for themselves? Like running for class president, only if I win somebody dies. And we campaign by quietly watching what other people do instead of anything else. Sound good?

NexAdruin · « **Reply #28 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:45:06 AM »

If "no lynch" reaches 8 votes first does that mean we don't lynch?

Nickasummers · « **Reply #29 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:47:55 AM »

Fair enough. I still won't trust any data gathered today, but if it helps you work your fast-talking magic, more power to you.

the asshole you hate · « **Reply #30 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:52:46 AM »

Quote from: NexAdruin on May 22, 2011, 06:45:06 AM

If "no lynch" reaches 8 votes first does that mean we don't lynch?

I'm 99% certain the answer is yes.

NexAdruin · « **Reply #31 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:54:30 AM »

The mechanic doesn't really work otherwise (might as well just be a "no vote"), I just wanted to make sure.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #32 on:** May 22, 2011, 06:59:38 AM »

I just realized I inadvertently bolded the phrase "no vote" rather than "no lynch" in my eariler post. Consider this a correction.

NexAdruin · « **Reply #33 on:** May 22, 2011, 07:06:23 AM »

I vote to lynch the Weretiger(s).

Verde · « **Reply #34 on:** May 22, 2011, 08:35:33 AM »

Quote from: Nickasummers on May 22, 2011, 05:28:09 AM

Words.

If we're not voting and we're not trusting "any data gathered today", then what are we doing here at all? Seems like you're just plain opposed to day one.

But shucks, if we're going to waste a day cycle let's at least waste it fast. No lynch.

NexAdruin · « **Reply #35 on:** May 22, 2011, 08:42:48 AM »

Friend

Nickasummers · « **Reply #36 on:** May 22, 2011, 09:00:47 AM »

18 players. 1/3 are supposed to be evil. Last game there were 20 players and there ended up being 2 vamps, 4 wolves, one devil, 7. So with 18 there will probably be 3 wolves not 4. On top of that, there is a 2/3 chance one "inno" is also bad (weretiger). So we can assume there are 8 people that we innos would like dead. Each inno wont vote for themself, so that means there is almost 50% chance of picking a bad (8/17). so I guess I'm wrong about no-lynch. If you can find even one other person that you feel safe ruling out as a bad by what they say, you have an 8/16 chance of hitting a bad. 50%. If you can rule out 2, its even better, 8/15.

I won't trust any information found on day 1 to be true, BUT it looks like a mostly random lynch is actually viable.

And the RNG says.... Classic.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #37 on:** May 22, 2011, 09:04:10 AM »

Screwed up some math in the above post, 7 not 8, but 7/16 if you can rule someone out is good, 7/15 if you can rule out 2 is even better.

Bongo Bill · « **Reply #38 on:** May 22, 2011, 09:09:29 AM »

Quote from: NexAdruin on May 22, 2011, 06:45:06 AM

If "no lynch" reaches 8 votes first does that mean we don't lynch?

Yes, it does.

Angry Beaver · « **Reply #39 on:** May 22, 2011, 09:22:01 AM »

Hanging people starts after I've gave the computer back. Will be hooking up another one tonight. In the mean time you should hang Guild on principal.

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Author Topic: Manpires vs Bearwolves IXtreme: MANPIRES WIN (Read 43546 times)