Topic: Closed Werewolf Epsilon - Serial Killer Lottel Wins (Read 18006 times)

Guild · « **Reply #180 on:** August 30, 2011, 02:12:13 PM »

Votecount 10 - Day 3

Lottel - 1 - (Ardus)

With 4 alive it's 3 to lynch.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #181 on:** August 30, 2011, 02:36:04 PM »

Shit. Considering I already shaved classic and ardus, so i was thinking it is time to lynch lottel. But then i reread victory conditions. A shaved wolf might not count FOR the wolves, but that doesnt mean that that is as good as dead from an inno POV. I think classic is a killing wolf and ardus is a scrying wolf. the other killing wolf was caith and the other scrying one was kayma. The reason classic let all the info out is because even though he doesnt help the wolf victory, his existance makes sure the town doesnt win either. If I am right, then killing classic is the only way to win. with him dead, wolves have no way to kill. If lottel were bad, that would just make way too many bad people, I think. Lottel, ardus, classic, what say you?

Lottel · « **Reply #182 on:** August 30, 2011, 02:51:08 PM »

Ardus did a good job of trying to get the blame off him. It was well worded and well thought out. He's wrong about me being a wolf but hey. It was a great try.

Classic's a bit peculiar right now. He's a shaved wolf but he's telling us shaved wolves don't want an inno victory, they just count towards it. It can be easy to dismiss this all as things Kayma said but that's probably what Classic wants.

Honestly either one of them could be a killer wolf. I can't really tell.

Classic isn't being completely honest and when we are possibly one day away from the end of the game, we all have to be honest. Only baddies have something to hide come last day.

Classic · « **Reply #183 on:** August 30, 2011, 03:00:49 PM »

OK. I'm going to make a role claim.

I'm part and have always been part of the innocents.
I have a night action that can guarantee the innocents a win assuming I live until the next day.
If I'm right I can reverse a night kill.

I believe that Kayma is or was a scrier. I believe that Kayma, believing me a shaved wolf boldly claimed that I was a shaved wolf to me, even though he did not have enough scries to do so.
I believe that he did indeed have knowledge of Nicka and Ardus's true identities.

What I'm unsure about is his alignment.
Either he could be a wolf, lying to me about who his real accomplices are in order to hide the fact that Nickasummers, who seems to be a potent innocent role (one that, in spite of its potency WAS NEVER NIGHT KILLED), is actually his accomplice. And implicate Ardus, a confirmed innocent as a victim.

He could be a wolf and been honest to me about his accomplice, excepting in the nature of Ardus's powers, in order to reveal information that could win the game for him from me. He assumed that I would perish in the night, but either he misjudged the loyalty of his presumed comrade, or I successfully blocked his assault.

He could simply be a scrier, hoping to share his insights with someone he presumed won on an innocent victory condition. I find this the least likely.

Classic · « **Reply #184 on:** August 30, 2011, 03:04:27 PM »

Oh, finally here's the last wrinkle:
Kayma discussed trying to include me in his plans with Ardus.
He needed a ruse that would keep Ardus from getting suspicious as to how a game with three allied wolves and one innocent could possibly not yet be over AND it being in the best interests of the shaved wolves to work with the full wolves.

The ruse we decided upon was that shaved wolves don't have innocent victory conditions.

I also propose the following:
Nicka is actually a wolf, making bold claims about having shaving powers that don't exist. You'll note that the Cap'n doesn't acknowledge in the thread the nature of its effects.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #185 on:** August 30, 2011, 05:08:20 PM »

Quote from: Classic on August 30, 2011, 03:00:49 PM

I'm part and have always been part of the innocents.
I have a night action that can guarantee the innocents a win assuming I live until the next day.
If I'm right I can reverse a night kill.

what do you mean "reverse" a night kill?

Quote

Either he could be a wolf, lying to me about who his real accomplices are in order to hide the fact that Nickasummers, who seems to be a potent innocent role (one that, in spite of its potency WAS NEVER NIGHT KILLED), is actually his accomplice. And implicate Ardus, a confirmed innocent as a victim.

If that were the case, why would I, his "accomplice", presumably privy to his plans, shave the person we were trying to get killed?

Quote

He could be a wolf and been honest to me about his accomplice, excepting in the nature of Ardus's powers, in order to reveal information that could win the game for him from me. He assumed that I would perish in the night, but either he misjudged the loyalty of his presumed comrade, or I successfully blocked his assault.

This confuses me. Please explain.

Quote from: Classic on August 30, 2011, 03:04:27 PM

Oh, finally here's the last wrinkle:
Kayma discussed trying to include me in his plans with Ardus.
He needed a ruse that would keep Ardus from getting suspicious as to how a game with three allied wolves and one innocent could possibly not yet be over AND it being in the best interests of the shaved wolves to work with the full wolves.

The ruse we decided upon was that shaved wolves don't have innocent victory conditions.

please explain why, if kayma and ardus are both wolves, kayma would want ardus dead?

Quote

I also propose the following:
Nicka is actually a wolf, making bold claims about having shaving powers that don't exist. You'll note that the Cap'n doesn't acknowledge in the thread the nature of its effects.

This is the weakest argument I have ever heard. Your are citing the fact that a role claim in a game where everything is a secret isn't being confirmed by the GM as proof that I am a wolf? I propose a test. If you really are the innocent you claim, tell us, in your own words, but as precisely as you can, your win condition. I know the innocent win condition. Whoever the other innocent is knows it too. And the wording is interesting. Your answer (or refusal to answer) will be proof enough of what side you are on. I am honestly not ever sure ardus is a wolf anymore. I think you might be the last wolf. I think you were trying to get us to kill ardus, and then tonight you would kill one of us and win.

Anything to say in your defense?

Classic · « **Reply #186 on:** August 30, 2011, 05:36:24 PM »

Kayma implied and made a great show of asking the Cap'n that his victory condition was identical to the innocents. The Cap'n answered in the affirmative. I see no reason that the Cap'n should be obligated to answer honestly, but it could be that Kayma is totally an inno for lyfe and I'm reading too much in to his deceptions.

He went into the conversation proposing that we were both shaved and sharing innocent victory conditions. Lots of things about his setup made it clear that I should be on guard for him and should not expect him to be wholly honest.

Regarding the innocent victory conditions: I've already done what you asked. I've already commented that the victory condition is strange on day one.

Quote from: Classic on August 25, 2011, 12:04:46 PM

I'm not sure I believe all of these roles claims, but I'm going to put forward this...
We can't quote our roles but my victory condition is vague. It implies that the threats to the town aren't just werewolves or maybe aren't even werewolves at all.

Either you're ignoring this, or you're asking me to quote my role card, which you know is against the rules.

As to your other questions, I have the ability to reverse a night kill. I suspect I successfully did so last night. This is why, I suspect, I am not dead, but it's a night power with fairly stringent targeting rules, so it's only going to work by chance 1/12th of the time right now or when someone gives away what they're doing.

Quote from: Nickasummers on August 30, 2011, 05:08:20 PM

If that were the case, why would I, his "accomplice", presumably privy to his plans, shave the person we were trying to get killed?

I've been revealing slowly because I have a lot of conflicting theories that could be confirmed or rejected based on one fortuitous slip-up. I'm still very much a fan of the theory that you've made up "shaving" out of whole cloth.

Classic · « **Reply #187 on:** August 30, 2011, 05:38:36 PM »

Lottel is likely right in that there's probably a serial killer on the loose and his infatuation with that idea makes it seem likely that his role is somehow related to that role, or he's trying to throw a red herring.

I'm much more interested in figuring out what of Kayma's reports were accurate.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #188 on:** August 30, 2011, 05:42:24 PM »

I had forgotten what you said on day 1. You are right. But not only does it imply that the threats arent necessarily wolves. It also implies that a wolf that counts as an innocent still stops the innocent win. The key word being the word "threats". So new question: if you think you saved yourself last night while kayma died, why did only one person die the night before?

Classic · « **Reply #189 on:** August 30, 2011, 05:52:59 PM »

Quote from: Cap'n Blackbeard on August 28, 2011, 09:47:06 AM

During the night, two sailors were in a cabin when a third entered and stabbed one to death with a kitchen knife. The dead man was NexAdruin. The other two both left the scene and scrubbed up, apparently. Some shaving cream was found beside a pile of fur.

My inclination is that there is a real, night barber, who was protected by some other means.
It could be that I'm just too awesome by far, and have been effectively using my powers to stop all sorts of mayhem and you know it, which is why you want me dead.

Alternately, it could be a weakness in that theory. I'm a fan, but I'm not married to it or anything.

Classic · « **Reply #190 on:** August 30, 2011, 05:54:37 PM »

I reviewed my power use and it's plausible I've actually been that awesome.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #191 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:10:56 PM »

Once you reminded me of your post the first day I started to believe you. So what remains is the question of who is the wolf. If there are two wolves we cant reach a consensus, so I am going to assume there is only one. I am suspicious of lottel because i havent shaved him yet, but I also feel weird about ardus. Mostly his tag-along attitude with voting. Right after I shaved him and said i think we should lynch lottel of the shave doesnt end the game, he voted for lottel. immediately. No questioning, no "maybe nick is the wolf". That bothers me. And now that I reread my role pm and think that a shaved wolf is still a threat to the innocents, I am not sure lynching lottel is a totally safe bet

Lottel · « **Reply #192 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:27:09 PM »

Ok, Nicka, you believe Classic. Could you help me to believe/understand him?
Maybe I'm just being a little slow right now but every time I read a Classic post I see this "fact" doesn't match up with this "fact" and this "fact" requires us to buy a lot of things.

I would really like all the information I can laid out nice and neat for this.

I'm still leaning towards Ardus, but right now I'm thinking that's just because from Day One I felt suspicious of him and never said a harsh word against him because this was his first game. I was murdered right away in my first game and I know how much that sucks. So part of the reason I'm leaning towards him now is because I will kick myself so hard if he turns out wolf and wins the game.

Classic's mixed signals are confusing though, I want to believe him because when he does make sense, he's pretty smart on some things, but after reading back through old wolf games, WolfClassic's tactics seem to be muddying up the waters and straight shooting used intermittently. I really don't want to fall for the same trap everyone else does. While I'm inclined to believe him right now, that's probably because I'm not too fond of Ardus at the moment.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #193 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:35:34 PM »

Lottel, your post worries me a lot.

I believe him because despite the confusion and conflicting ideas, things he has said resonate with things I know. Perhaps this is a lack of understanding, but it feels like a lack of information.

Lottel · « **Reply #194 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:43:14 PM »

My biggest confusion really lies about the Shaved Wolf bit. If Classic is a SW and Kayma was a SW, why would Kayma trick Classic?
I'm confused by what he meant by telling Classic that his ally was Ardus.

Combine this with Classic's "super awesome role" makes him highly suspicious. But he makes a lot of damn good points and at this point in time I'm inclined to believe him. I just want these questions answered. Whether by you or him.

Nickasummers · « **Reply #195 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:45:07 PM »

Classic, you should answer those points, but those points have nothing to do with why I trust you. Ardus, if you know, explain to Lottel why I, personally, trust classic.

Classic · « **Reply #196 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:49:43 PM »

Basically, Kayma, under curious pretenses approached me for conversation by a special role-related privilege.

He made a lot of claims. Some of which were obviously false or intentionally misleading (though I don't think he meant to mislead me, I blame Guild).

I've presented basically everything I can think of that's relevant to the conversation now. I'm omitting some details, which I feel are trivial.

There's only one more detail I can think of that adds anything.
Kayma seemed surprised when I told him that I wasn't a shaved wolf, but I don't think so little of him that he'd neglect that part of his ruse. He spoke to me under the pretense that we were both shaved wolves, and that he had been shaved in the night by a barber. He implied that he believed Nicka's role claim, and claimed that his scries showed him as an innocent (this final item is a old).

Also, my power is super awesome, but it doesn't give me scries and requires I be right about two things at once to have full effect and gives no feedback.
I was wrong in my fractions before as to the odds of it hitting by blind luck tonight by the way. I neglected some assumptions I would naturally make in its targetting.

Lottel · « **Reply #197 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:53:14 PM »

Ok. That makes a bit more sense. Thank you. Consider yourself a lot less suspicious.

Which forces me to turn Ardusward.

What say you, Ardus?

Nickasummers · « **Reply #198 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:56:32 PM »

Classic, are the two things that need to be right the attacker and the victim? if so, it might help us to know what your decisions were both nights.

Classic · « **Reply #199 on:** August 30, 2011, 06:56:58 PM »

I think he said this, but I've done some more revealing since and it's a lot to take in.

Quote from: Ardus on August 30, 2011, 12:02:29 PM

Quote from: Classic on August 29, 2011, 11:16:49 PM
He claimed that he had no knowledge of Lottel.

I believe Lottel is the final wolf. It really seems like Kayma is stringing classic along. Based on Classics actions and the information he is relaying from Kayma, I assume Kayma was the wolf who knew another wolf from the start. Placing the spotlight on me could be the perfect way to direct attention away from his real wolf buddy, Lottel.

Lottel, you must be taken out if the crew is to survive.

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Author Topic: Closed Werewolf Epsilon - Serial Killer Lottel Wins (Read 18006 times)