Topic: Nosferatus vs. Lycanthropes IX point V: NOSFERATUS WIN (Read 46442 times)

Friend · « **Reply #380 on:** July 03, 2012, 05:35:47 AM »

It's a good thing you voted for me stush, because I had no other leads today. Now I believe you are a Nosferatu. Let me break this down.
Lycanthropes start with 4-6 players. Let 's assume the real number is 4-5. Nosferatus start with 2. Assuming they've turned someone every night, they have at most 6 team members. Now accounting for casualties, the other team's standing is

Lycanthropes: 3-4
Nosferatus: 2-5

The nosferatus still have their master and backup master. They will likely turn more people.
Total players: 13
Total baddies: 5-9.
Worst case scenario, innos are already outnumbered.

Now, let's make some assumptions. Let's assume syl is right and I'm the ninjatiger. Now let's assume You're a Nosferatu. That means you know how many teammates you have. Assume a number higher on the Nosferatu spectrum. That means as the winning team, you have a pretty damn good incentive to kill me. Now, you're probably going to plead innocence. Let's assume you are an innocent. Let me then refer to the earlier numbers:

13 total players
5-9 suspect, with both master nosferatus in play and a wolf turn still available. If you really are an innocent and your first priority right now is to go after the weretiger, then you are a moron. This applies if you are a wolf as well.

So, to sum: Stush: nosferatu protecting his lead, or moronic inno/slightly less moronic wolf.

Either way, you're dead meat, stush

Stush · « **Reply #381 on:** July 03, 2012, 05:53:47 AM »

Just because you know how to fill this box with words and numbers doesn't make you captain smartypants!

If I had any stronger leads, sure, i'd follow those. Just going with what worked last time is all I have at the moment.

Caithness · « **Reply #382 on:** July 03, 2012, 08:12:35 AM »

Quote from: Dizzy on June 22, 2012, 03:17:05 PM

Maybe getting lynched has its uses for the good guys. You never know.

Dizzy actually had a point here, whether he knew it or not. By claiming to be the Weretiger, he ensured that every bad wanted to vote for him. I don't know if he was just lucky or if he knew Syl was a wolf, but when he fingered Syl as a vampire instead every bad knew he was lying and must be on the other team. They almost certainly couldn't resist the urge to earn points with the innocents by voting for the lynch of a member of their rival team.

I'm especially suspicious of the people who voted for Dizzy after he already had eight votes, namely Defenestration, McDohl and Envy. Now it's possible they just weren't paying attention and didn't know he was already lynched, but I also think it's very possible that they didn't want to be seen NOT voting for Dizzy.

I know Defenestration is a very canny player from his performance in the last game. I don't think he would overlook something as crucial as the number of votes the leading candidate for lynch has.

jsnlxndrlv · « **Reply #383 on:** July 03, 2012, 08:41:41 AM »

The fact that Stush wants to kill Friend intrigues me, because I know for a fact that Friend is the weretiger: the PI accepted my bid to scry him last night. I wouldn't be admitting this right now, but since Friend is getting votes, that's enough reason to suspect at least one evil team is aware of his felinity.

So... is it better to vote for Stush, or a confirmed evil? I don't think we should vote Friend, since the wolfpires will be falling all over each other to kill him now. Stush gets my vote unless we get somebody better.

Friend · « **Reply #384 on:** July 03, 2012, 08:53:07 AM »

Yeah let's listen to the wolf. S/he was spot on about Dizzy, right?

Friend · « **Reply #385 on:** July 03, 2012, 08:55:22 AM »

Ahhh godamnit newbie.

Friend · « **Reply #386 on:** July 03, 2012, 09:13:19 AM »

my first response was targeted at stush, in case it was unclear.

Classic · « **Reply #387 on:** July 03, 2012, 10:01:16 AM »

Is this the game of absolutely crazy plays? Stush you crazy-stupid bastard.
Seriously, I read your logic and nearly choked on my drink. I don't know if these stains are ever going to come out.

gahitsu · « **Reply #388 on:** July 03, 2012, 10:26:06 AM »

Ahahahaha holy shit I love this game so much.

Stush you've been suspiciously naive the whole game and you seem like you're flailing now that you're being called out. Friend's tiggery numbers are concerning, though.

Bleck · « **Reply #389 on:** July 03, 2012, 10:32:43 AM »

I don't think any of the people who voted for Dizzy are allowed to call anyone naive.

Kayma · « **Reply #390 on:** July 03, 2012, 11:47:31 AM »

Let's be honest though, Dizzy had to go down.

Defenestration · « **Reply #391 on:** July 03, 2012, 12:04:27 PM »

Quote from: Caithness on July 03, 2012, 08:12:35 AM

I know Defenestration is a very canny player from his performance in the last game. I don't think he would overlook something as crucial as the number of votes the leading candidate for lynch has.

I counted 6 then, myself. Must have skipped a vote between all the vote swaps that day. That and the poll's been borked the whole time, so.

Anyway, you know what? This train on Stush isn't without reason or anything, but I'm not convinced that he's anything but a really dumb inno. He's definately on my list of suspicion, but you know who's at the top right now? Envy's slip of the tongue yesterday that Lottel observed is probably very telling. Envy outs himself unintentionally every game as a bad in a similarly obvious way. Also, how did he live this long anyway? Seriously. Get him out of here!

McDohl · « **Reply #392 on:** July 03, 2012, 01:27:12 PM »

Man. I dunno, but Stush is one of those guys who nobody expected to be a vampire, and remember back when I was Dracula? Our last turn was Stush, because nobody expected him like the Spanish Inquisition.

So yeah, Stush.

Stush · « **Reply #393 on:** July 03, 2012, 02:07:29 PM »

I've felt really dumb for the whole night. After I made that post, I realised that there's no good reason to target the weretiger early, it's something you should save for the last turn, all I've done is give the badguys a possible target to turn.

I think this game has taught me something, That I really shouldn't get into this kind of situation in real life. I get too excited and blurt stuff out, which just either makes me a target, or screws up things.

I am slightly pleased that some of you think I'm some kind of secret strategist, hiding a grand strategy under all my flailing about, but unfortunately, no, I'm just really bad at this.

Maybe they should make a Comic Relief Sidekick role, and bongo can just put me in that all the time.

jsnlxndrlv · « **Reply #394 on:** July 03, 2012, 02:19:53 PM »

I am withdrawing my vote for Stush.

gahitsu · « **Reply #395 on:** July 03, 2012, 02:29:29 PM »

Quote from: jsnlxndrlv on July 03, 2012, 02:19:53 PM

I am withdrawing my vote for Stush.

Why's that?

jsnlxndrlv · « **Reply #396 on:** July 03, 2012, 02:42:00 PM »

I think that Stush is our best lead so far, but that doesn't mean I don't want to hear more about what other people think about the Defenestration and Envy votes. If we just all pile on a single player each day, we'll rapidly find ourselves in the endgame with insufficient information to ferret out where the alliances were all along. Let's take our time with this; speeding the vote through without sufficient discussion benefits the evil teams more than the good.

Bleck · « **Reply #397 on:** July 03, 2012, 06:55:24 PM »

Quote from: Defenestration on July 03, 2012, 12:04:27 PM

Envy's slip of the tongue yesterday that Lottel observed is probably very telling.

Or rather, it would be, if Syl didn't turn out to be a werewolf.

Defenestration · « **Reply #398 on:** July 03, 2012, 07:50:08 PM »

Envy can just as easily be a vampire, you know. Syl dying works fine for him either way then. Unless you are privy to information I am not?

Bleck · « **Reply #399 on:** July 03, 2012, 08:49:42 PM »

Voting for Syl, who was clearly a werewolf, was an easy thing for both the innocents and the vampires. It's true that we could look at Envy's wording as tantamount to being a vampire, but I don't think it's strong enough evidence to waste a lynch on.

In fact, I think that the evidence is so weak that it's actually kind of suspicious of Lottel to have called it out in the first place.

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Author Topic: Nosferatus vs. Lycanthropes IX point V: NOSFERATUS WIN (Read 46442 times)