Just remember that we absolutely need to kill Kazz before we run out of Greater Werewolves.
I don't know how close we are to the end, but if we kill a werewolf today, then the werewolves cannot win tonight. Since we must leave at least one Greater Werewolf alive, it's not possible for the innocents to win tonight either. That means it's safe to not lynch Kazz today. It will not be safe to let him survive past tomorrow, however.
Kazz should die before we find and kill the other Greater Werewolf. We can't risk accidentally triggering a premature innocent victory. The werewolves, however, don't have any reason to kill Kazz for us; a lynch spent on Kazz is a lynch we can't spend looking for Cornell. It's a dilemma.
Whoever wins the bid on the Auction House tonight will be able to decide whether or not the Assassin's Blade goes up for sale tomorrow night, and should stipulate their decision with their bid so that it isn't left up to chance. If the werewolves win that item, then they can make two kills tomorrow night instead of one - not to mention they're better able to coordinate that purchase. That would accelerate their victory clock. Any innocent bidding on the Auction House should stipulate that it should immediately be used to make the Silvery Pendant available (it can't kill Cornell but it can protect against a wolf kill). Any innocent bidding on the Assassin's Blade should stipulate that it be used to kill Kazz so that we don't have to spend a lynch on him. If Kazz is still dead, innocents should still bid on that item just to keep it out of werewolf hands. I strongly encourage innocents to coordinate on this matter!
Once Nex and Kazz are both out of the picture, the innocents can win this. In the absolute worst-case scenario, it becomes pretty close to a game of vanilla werewolf.
There are 13 players now alive, of whom the werewolves are at least two and at most five. Three werewolves have been killed so far, so the number of werewolves currently alive is one less than the number that were alive at the start (six starting wolves would be a pretty big number, but I concede it's possible - does anybody have any data on this?). If we kill Nex tonight and Kazz tomorrow, or Kazz tonight and Nex tomorrow, then in the worst case, we'll have one fewer wolf and three fewer non-wolves on day 9. In other words, there'll be 9 players and 1-4 wolves. That means we're potentially looking at requiring flawless play in order to win! That shouldn't be difficult considering how much information is out there, but then again, one of them is the Devil.
On the other hand, the werewolves know how close they are to victory. If there are 5/13 wolves now, then there will be 4/11 wolves tomorrow; if we don't kill Kazz on day 8, the wolves will have to kill him on night 8, or else a single Assassin's Dagger kill could create a situation where there are 4/8 wolves on day 9, triggering Weretiger victory. Kazz knows that and he'll surely be trying to get that dagger to make it happen. Do we want to gamble on werewolf numbers?
If any vampire is alive, kill Kazz tonight. He is not Envy; he did not buy Interceptor, so you are safe. (If he's alive tomorrow, we'll assume that either he had a teddy bear or there are no vampires.) You will not doom your side, but you will give us an extra day in which to hunt werewolves. You can still win, but you have to be alive when the last werewolf dies, and that will only happen if the last werewolf does die. The ability to survive one more mistake will help us both.
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Topic: Vampires Vs Werewolves X: Millennium Waltz (Read 47153 times)