Shocking Arizona poll from last night,
Not buying it. Remember the polls in '04? The media swore we were a swing state, all year, and then Bush pulled off a double-digit win.
And I can guarantee McCain's more popular here than Bush.
Honestly if he only pulls off a single-digit win here I'll be surprised.
Hey, I'd love to be wrong. But seriously, I think it's bullshit.
Arizona Secretary of State's office lists current registrations as 37 percent Republican, 34 percent Democratic, and 28 percent independent.
That's more like it. But the Independents are largely Libertarian.
...That's from the actual registration rolls? Then I'd show up as a Dem. But I say "Independent" whenever people ask.
Bradley Effect
Did you read of the empirical study that concluded that it hasn't existed since 1996? Any thoughts on this?
I didn't. But I still find it very hard to believe he's going to win by ten points in Jefferson Davis's backyard. He'll probably take Virginia, but ten points is a hell of an optimistic number IMO.
it's still possible for a game changer to occur in the next week (like the bin Laden tape right before the last election).
... Which wasn't a game changer in any surmountable regard.
Yeah, but Virginia and North Carolina weren't in play.