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[Thad]

Shocking Arizona poll from last night,

Not buying it.  Remember the polls in '04?  The media swore we were a swing state, all year, and then Bush pulled off a double-digit win.

And I can guarantee McCain's more popular here than Bush.

Honestly if he only pulls off a single-digit win here I'll be surprised.

Hey, I'd love to be wrong.  But seriously, I think it's bullshit.

Arizona Secretary of State's office lists current registrations as 37 percent Republican, 34 percent Democratic, and 28 percent independent.

That's more like it.  But the Independents are largely Libertarian.

...That's from the actual registration rolls?  Then I'd show up as a Dem.  But I say "Independent" whenever people ask.

Bradley Effect

Did you read of the empirical study that concluded that it hasn't existed since 1996? Any thoughts on this?

I didn't.  But I still find it very hard to believe he's going to win by ten points in Jefferson Davis's backyard.  He'll probably take Virginia, but ten points is a hell of an optimistic number IMO.

it's still possible for a game changer to occur in the next week (like the bin Laden tape right before the last election).

... Which wasn't a game changer in any surmountable regard.

Yeah, but Virginia and North Carolina weren't in play.

[Zaratustra]

is this 'in play' like Florida in 2000 or Ohio in 2004 'in play'?

[Arc]

Um, um, um... Elsewhile!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4TNt6I9vCY

[Transportation]

I'm going to reinforce Thad's point with Electoral Vote which still has the poll results from '04. Notice how McCain is doing better than Bush did in the 2004 polls.

I believe that the Democratic Primary did not show any Bradley effect, but I can't find any collection of polls from that time and it only applies to registered Democrats anyway.

I haven't really seen any quantification for this, but increased black turn out (reverse Bradley effect) should balance out the racist vote, if we assume a similar amount of voting where race is a factor.

Calling the race isn't totally immature since McCain's victory requires lots of state flipping. Versus 2004 where the Electoral Map was more balanced. By which I mean no one had >300.

[Arc]

I'm going to reinforce Thad's point with Electoral Vote which still has the poll results from '04. Notice how McCain is doing better than Bush did in the 2004 polls.

Not a fan of electoral-vote.com (their 2004 weighting was horridly off), but the Arizona graphs are revealing. The link provided shows 2004 Arizona was polled weekly, while the last 2008 Arizona polling had taken place in late September. The two from today, while Democratic leaning, are the only new polls since. More are said to be on the way.

[Thad]

The link provided shows 2004 Arizona was polled weekly, while the last 2008 Arizona polling had taken place in late September.

Right after the Democratic Convention?

Meantime: Time has a poorly-capitalized article titled 7 Things That Could Go Wrong on Election Day that runs down, well, what it says it does.  (In order: flawed databases, fraudulent registrations, poorly-designed forms, unverifiable machine voting, poor distribution of polling places, new demands for identity verification, and general confusion.)  Pretty much old hat as far as I'm concerned, but it's worthwhile having all that information in one place..

[Arc]

The link provided shows 2004 Arizona was polled weekly, while the last 2008 Arizona polling had taken place in late September.

Right after the Democratic Convention?

Late September, not late August.

[TA]

Well, it is still October, but this seems a bit ... off, for a surprise.

[Brentai]

Welp, if you're going to murder children and create an international incident, I guess now's the time to do it.  Have fun cleaning up this mess, President Obama!  Twenty-three skidoo!

[Thad]

Out of the dozens being held, Zogby has been the most unreliable batshit

Zogby Poll: John Zogby Coolest Dude In America

[Bal]

Arizona is a strange state, politically and otherwise, but for a presidential Candidate to lose in their own State? Almost never happens.

[Thad]

Yeah.  Gore was an anomaly, and that one was easily foreseeable.

Contrariwise, even Mondale won his home state.

[Arc]

Rasmussen has McCain leading Arizona 51% to 46% today, down from a 21% lead in late-September. While this may not be a turning point in 2008, what of 2010?

[Bal]

There are these little islands of liberal voters around Arizona that skew the polls, but it comes to naught most every time, except in local elections.

[Thad]

Rasmussen has McCain leading Arizona 51% to 46% today, down from a 21% lead in late-September. While this may not be a turning point in 2008, what of 2010?

If he runs again in 2010, he'll probably coast to reelection.  But I won't be surprised if he opts to retire if he loses the Presidential race.  A 2010 reelection puts him in office until he's 80.

2012 seems the more likely year for Arizona to be a potential swing state -- depending on who the Republicans field and how popular Obama is.  But we went Clinton in '96, and if it's that stark a contrast again, history could repeat itself.

I'm very interested in where Napolitano goes from here; her term limit's up in '10.  Lots of speculation about an ambassador or even cabinet position.

[SCD]

Well, it is still October, but this seems a bit ... off, for a surprise.

Just like the other year when the Israelis bombed the nuclear processing facility in Syria, I find myself tilting my head and saying "they did what?" 

I wouldn't expect this to go too far in a political sense. 

[TA]

GRahsdfdsafsdha
They were doing this shit back in 2006, if I remember right.  Can someone explain again how people paid on the basis of how many voters they register filling out obviously phony voter registration cards to meet quoats, with full knowledge that the frauds will be detected and thrown out, is the WORSTEST VOTER FRAUDS EVAR?

[Norondor]

Tsk, i was just about to post this.

I'm looking forward to Guild popping his head in to remind us that left-wingers also commit scandalous voter fraud, even if neither he nor anyone else can think of any actual examples in the last three decades!

[Thad]

Guild's still not allowed on the forum.

And TA is sorely tempting me with what I believe is the worst link text I have ever seen.

[TA]

was meant to be an onomatopoeic representation of the noise that link made me make