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[Thad]

She's more Bush than Cheney.  I doubt she'll have an active role in McCain's policy.  However, that McCain picked her in the FIRST place says a lot about what his policy's going to be, and yes, he could die in office.

Cheney's unique in the history of the office.  No other veep has had his kind of power, and the next veep won't either.  Of the two, I think Biden's the one likely to have more voice in his respective hypothetical administration -- he'd be a Gore, where Palin strikes me as more of a Quayle.

[Brentai]

A recurring joke on every late night talk show?

[Shinra]

Still eagerly awaiting the vice presidential debates over here. Whether it has a positive or negative effect remains to be seen, but watching Biden rip Palin to shreds is going to be the best thing ever.

[Shinra]

Do you think most people are thinking that far ahead, though? I hope so.

Part of the reason Bob Dole didn't win in 2000 because he was too old and people didn't like the idea of his VP becoming president.

Granted, he was going up against a political juggernaut like Bill Clinton, but the focus on his age pretty much destroyed any chances he could have had to win it.

Based upon McCain's standing in the polls, I would say that is not true.

People know Bush is an idiot and Mccain is more of the same.  They knew Bush was an idiot and a bad president in 2004 as well. The trick is, the republican strategy of 'Ok, we're bad, but the other guy is WAY WORSE!' works amazingly well among the shithead vote.

[Royal☭]

Part of the reason Bob Dole didn't win in 2000 because he was too old and people didn't like the idea of his VP becoming president.

Never change, Shinra.  Seriously.

the shithead vote.

 

[Thad]

Part of the reason Bob Dole didn't win in 1996 because he was too old and people didn't like the idea of his VP becoming president.

Ah, but neither Dole nor Kemp energized the base the way Palin does.  They're both relative moderates -- yes, we've been quoting "Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others" repeatedly over in the Abortion thread, but the genius of the line is that it perfectly encapsulates triangulating politicians in general and Bob Dole in particular.

In a race between two moderates, the public goes with the one who they already think is doing a good job -- or against the one who they already think is doing a BAD job.

Palin, as we've said, is there for the evangelicals who think McCain's too moderate.  The gamble, as we've said, is that she may alienate moderates.  And so here we are.  It could easily go either way at this point -- I'm still hoping Obama, of course, and I think he's going to pull it off for the reasons I've described (polls not accounting for new demos, his current lead in electoral votes, the fact that current events are bad for Republicans and will likely continue to be between now and the election).

[Brentai]

People know Bush is an idiot and Mccain is more of the same.

No, no they don't.

Ask someone who's voting for McCain why they're doing it, and somewhere near the top of the list will be "He's a maverick, he's different from Bush!"  You ask them why the hell they think so and it'll be "Well everyone knows that."  You ask them why they don't consider the alternative that way and they'll say, "Well, that's too different."

It's not so much that their strategy is "The other guy is way worse."  More along the lines of "The other guy is not good enough to warrant interrupting the status quo."  It's as good as solid fact that human beings fear change - the very word that Obama runs his campaign on, and the underlying message of most liberals.  The conservatives on the other hand, by definition, protect the status quo, and constantly coo messages of assured safety and peace to the quivering masses.

The left is therefore always on the offensive, always trying to break through the fortifications of the firmly entrenched right, whose grasp on the reins of power is assured by default unless radical change is needed.  Gore's biggest problem wasn't really his sparkling personality (that was his second biggest), but the simple fact that Americans felt at their zenith, and any promise he could make about bettering the future seemed like rocking a really good boat.  Kerry just never knew what he was up against, the poor dumb bastard; his biggest enemy was fear, and he never once took a stand against it.  The best democrats of the last century were the ones who directly confronted the country's fears; FDR with his no-nonsense approach to just about everything, and of course JFK, the man who most famously stood up in front of the country and said, "You know what?  Fear is bullshit."


It just occurred to me that the attacking team in TF2 is always BLU.

[Detonator]

The best democrats of the last century were the ones who directly confronted the country's fears; FDR with his no-nonsense approach to just about everything, and of course JFK, the man who most famously stood up in front of the country and said, "You know what?  Fear is bullshit."

Are you referring to the "We have nothing to fear but fear itself" quote?  Because that was also FDR.

JFK was "Ask not what your country can do for you".  But maybe he had something about fear that I forgot.

[Brentai]

...wow, seriously?

I AM A PRODUCT OF THE AMERICAN EDUCATION SYSTEM SHUT UP

[Brentai]

We have every reason to expect Obama and Biden to start putting on the kid gloves, just like Kerry and Gore before them.

[Classic]

It's OK. They both have names popularly made into simply initials, so it's understandable.

We don't expect everyone to know that FDR founded the space program.

[Thad]

People know Bush is an idiot and Mccain is more of the same.

No, no they don't.

Ask someone who's voting for McCain why they're doing it, and somewhere near the top of the list will be "He's a maverick, he's different from Bush!"  You ask them why the hell they think so and it'll be "Well everyone knows that."

Which, more than anything, is a statement at how much better Republicans are than Democrats at controlling their message.  Their "McCain is a maverick" theme has become the conventional wisdom, despite being bullshit, while Obama's "McCain votes with Bush 95% of the time" theme has yet to catch on, despite being true.

Part of this, of course, is that Republicans are a lot bigger on ideological purity than Democrats, or at least talk like they are.  The fact that McCain deviates from his party 5% is enough for them to print up "John McCain: RINO" bumper stickers -- or it was, before he got the nomination.  So he gets the best of both worlds: the base that hates him has fallen in line, while the moderates think he's a compromise.

Palin, again, is a risk here, who will shore up the reluctant base further but could alienate the moderates.

You ask them why they don't consider the alternative that way and they'll say, "Well, that's too different."

It's not so much that their strategy is "The other guy is way worse."  More along the lines of "The other guy is not good enough to warrant interrupting the status quo."  It's as good as solid fact that human beings fear change - the very word that Obama runs his campaign on, and the underlying message of most liberals.  The conservatives on the other hand, by definition, protect the status quo, and constantly coo messages of assured safety and peace to the quivering masses.

The left is therefore always on the offensive, always trying to break through the fortifications of the firmly entrenched right, whose grasp on the reins of power is assured by default unless radical change is needed.

The first and last sentence in that block encapsulate the point nicely.

People fear change a lot less when the economy is in the tank and the country is mired in an unpopular war.

Everybody wants change right now, it's just a question of how much.  McCain is trying to paint himself as a change candidate, and his maverick image and the Sarah Palin pick are part of that.  Those are the dragons Obama needs to slay.  He needs to tie Bush around their necks like an albatross.

He hasn't done as good a job of that at this point as I'd have hoped, but I think in the end the message is going to sink in.  The bottom line is that Republicans got us into this mess.

And even the people who buy the "maverick" label are going to notice that McCain doesn't sound that goddamn mavericky on the economy or the war, and those are pretty much what the election's going to be about.

Gore's biggest problem wasn't really his sparkling personality (that was his second biggest), but the simple fact that Americans felt at their zenith, and any promise he could make about bettering the future seemed like rocking a really good boat.

But, liberal and conservative doctrine notwithstanding, Gore wasn't the candidate of change, he was the incumbent VP.  Bush was the candidate of change.

And you have to admit, he changed things pretty fucking drastically.

[Brentai]

Which, more than anything, is a statement at how much better Republicans are than Democrats at controlling their message.

[...]

Part of this, of course, is that Republicans are a lot bigger on ideological purity than Democrats, or at least talk like they are.

Controlling the MSM probably has something to do with it.

The bright side of this is that by the time we all have careers and children and stuff we actually care about the future of, Comedy Central and the like will be the MSM.  And then our children will think we're morons.

You ask them why they don't consider the alternative that way and they'll say, "Well, that's too different."

[...]

The left is therefore always on the offensive, always trying to break through the fortifications of the firmly entrenched right, whose grasp on the reins of power is assured by default unless radical change is needed.

The first and last sentence in that block encapsulate the point nicely.

People fear change a lot less when the economy is in the tank and the country is mired in an unpopular war.

Less, but experience suggests that dear old Granny would honestly rather take the horrific war and depression she's grown accustomed to, than face the unknown equation of how Obama might transform her life.

Everybody wants change right now, it's just a question of how much.

Bingo.  Right on the money.

The ground that Obama's standing on is a lot shakier than I think he realizes.  Barack Obama says "I will change everything about American politics," and he embodies the notion in everything down to his name.  John McCain says "I will change some things about American politics, and then I'll keep the country running, just like I have for 30 years."

John McCain is the moderate candidate.  Even though he really isn't, he is now, on the biggest issue of the election: not the war, not the economy, but what are we going to do with this whole mess.

Democrats have wanted change for years, have been screaming for it, crying for it, pushing for it, and now they've pushed too far.  Obama was a pretty good flavor for several weeks, but now that he's had his momentum stolen by a simple WTF maneuver from the other side, the middle has a chance to catch their breaths and think, "Now wait, things are bad, but are they so bad that we have to forever change the face of American politics to fix it?"  And the answer is, usually, no.  There's still a prevailing sense that we can pull up, even our noses out, and level off before climbing to altitude again.  Sometimes I think that's the real reason people call JM "Maverick".

(And I just now made the connection to him actually being a fighter pilot.  D'oh.)

Barack Obama needs to level himself off, assure the middle that just because he's a progressive black guy with a foreign-sounding name that he's not going to introduce mandatory ass-sex and vegetarianism, and more importantly, get the hell back out there.  The man's been oddly quiet for a while now, letting attention linger on that hellbeast of a figurehead that McCain bought, and he's lost his "media darling" status.  That's hurting him, I can tell, and it's going to hurt a lot more because, again, the MSM controls his message... and unfortunately he's given them a lot to work with now.

McCain is trying to paint himself as a change candidate, and his maverick image and the Sarah Palin pick are part of that.  Those are the dragons Obama needs to slay.  He needs to tie Bush around their necks like an albatross.

He should tie McCain to Bush in every conceivable way.  Even if they weren't so similar that The Daily Show could interpose their speeches without any special editing.  Bush's name is the new equivalent to Godwin's Law, and Barack Obama should know better than to take the high road after seeing what it did to his peers.

And even the people who buy the "maverick" label are going to notice that McCain doesn't sound that goddamn mavericky on the economy or the war, and those are pretty much what the election's going to be about.

Let's hope.  Right now it's mid-September, and the election seems to be about Sarah Palin's rape fetish.

But, liberal and conservative doctrine notwithstanding, Gore wasn't the candidate of change, he was the incumbent VP.  Bush was the candidate of change.

And you have to admit, he changed things pretty fucking drastically.

I don't remember Bush exactly running on a campaign of change, but Gore had Ideas, even then (and wisely didn't tell people about all of them, because back then everybody hated his Ideas).  OTOH, it barely matters what Bush ran on a campaign of, because he proceeded to do exactly the opposite of everything he said (which everybody who lived during his father's run had no excuse to not see coming.)  Even the briefest rundown of it is like a damned Bizarro World:

In the campaign, Bush criticized the Clinton administration policy in Somalia, where 18 Americans died in 1993 trying to sort out warring factions, and in the Balkans, where United States peacekeeping troops perform a variety of functions. "I don't think our troops ought to be used for what's called nation-building," Bush said in the second presidential debate.[26] During his campaign, Bush also pledged to bridge bi-partisan gaps between the Democratic and Republican parties as well.[27]

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

[Thad]

Which, more than anything, is a statement at how much better Republicans are than Democrats at controlling their message.

Controlling the MSM probably has something to do with it.

Well, the control works on more than one level.  It's not just owning corporate parents and advertisers, it's simply the fact that the MSM talks about whatever stupid shit the Republicans claim is an issue -- as Tom Tomorrow noted, he wrote the cartoon for the lipstick-on-a-pig nonsense three weeks ago.

Less, but experience suggests that dear old Granny would honestly rather take the horrific war and depression she's grown accustomed to, than face the unknown equation of how Obama might transform her life.

Not if she lives in New Orleans.

Democrats have wanted change for years, have been screaming for it, crying for it, pushing for it, and now they've pushed too far.  Obama was a pretty good flavor for several weeks, but now that he's had his momentum stolen by a simple WTF maneuver from the other side, the middle has a chance to catch their breaths and think, "Now wait, things are bad, but are they so bad that we have to forever change the face of American politics to fix it?"  And the answer is, usually, no.  There's still a prevailing sense that we can pull up, even our noses out, and level off before climbing to altitude again.  Sometimes I think that's the real reason people call JM "Maverick".

(And I just now made the connection to him actually being a fighter pilot.  D'oh.)

Barack Obama needs to level himself off, assure the middle that just because he's a progressive black guy with a foreign-sounding name that he's not going to introduce mandatory ass-sex and vegetarianism, and more importantly, get the hell back out there.  The man's been oddly quiet for a while now, letting attention linger on that hellbeast of a figurehead that McCain bought, and he's lost his "media darling" status.  That's hurting him, I can tell, and it's going to hurt a lot more because, again, the MSM controls his message... and unfortunately he's given them a lot to work with now.

...You...DO know that it's only been a week and a half since the Republican Convention, right?

I think all this "sky-is-falling" stuff I'm seeing from a lot on the left is a little premature.  Obama got a poll bounce, McCain got a poll bounce, now the numbers are pretty close, with Obama trending upward.

Which, again, is no excuse for complacency.  Obama DOES need to kick some serious ass out there.  I just don't think the situation right now is as bleak as some people see it.  In fact, I think this "Obama is on the ropes" narrative is another example of the Republicans controlling the message.

He should tie McCain to Bush in every conceivable way.  Even if they weren't so similar that The Daily Show could interpose their speeches without any special editing.  Bush's name is the new equivalent to Godwin's Law, and Barack Obama should know better than to take the high road after seeing what it did to his peers.

Well, he is.  He uses the phrase "Bush-McCain policies" like...well, like some sort of colorful simile.  Sharkey's much better at them than I am.  Some sort of colorful simile indicating he says it a hell of a lot.  (... ... ...It's 1:30 AM, okay?)

And this week's pretty much been given to the Democrats on a silver platter.  That's where cracks are starting to show in the Republican message control I was talking about earlier -- sooner or later, reality starts to intrude.  You can make a Stupid Distraction the number one story for a week, but if half-a-dozen major financial institutions crash the NEXT week, well, that's big fucking news and the media are going to cover it.  And the Republicans can TRY and control the message on that, but, well...there's an expression for that.  What's the thing people say when something is self-evidently bad and any shallow attempt to frame it as good is going to fail?  Damn, tip of my tongue...

The economy is where McCain is weakest, and right now it's the most important issue on most people's minds.  He can talk about launching investigations and make references to 9/11 and indulge in rhetoric about those damn robber-barons on Wall Street, but I really don't see anybody buying that.  Even the Wall Street Journal acknowledges Obama's economic message is much more likely to win votes (even if it doesn't agree with his policy).

This is a Republican problem.  The economy is a Republican problem.  And it's not a subject where McCain is seen as a maverick.  He's the guy with eight houses.  He's One of Them.

And he keeps saying stupid shit like "The fundamentals of the economy are strong."  Which, as Oliver points out, is the economic equivalent of "Stay the course" -- which, as you'll recall, did not turn out well for the Republicans in '06.

Anyway.  This is the biggest story of the week, and the Democrats fucking own it.  We're a month early for an October Surprise, but I think it's a safe bet to say we'll still be getting bad economic news right on up through election day.

Let's hope.  Right now it's mid-September, and the election seems to be about Sarah Palin's rape fetish.

I...haven't actually heard much of anything about that in the MSM.  Have you?

I don't remember Bush exactly running on a campaign of change,

"Restore honor and dignity to the White House," "Compassionate Conservative," all that stuff.  But yeah, like you say, it was all bullshit.

but Gore had Ideas, even then (and wisely didn't tell people about all of them, because back then everybody hated his Ideas).

I disagree entirely.  I think Gore fucked himself by having nothing new to say and by running just to the left of Bush -- he picked a guy who just spoke at the Republican Convention to be his running mate, for fuck's sake.

It wasn't just Gore's manner of speaking that was boring, it was his entire message -- or lack thereof.  He went out of his way NOT to rock the boat, and it hurt him.

Obama's excited the base where Gore failed to do so, and Obama appeals to demographics that Gore (and, really, every other candidate ever) failed to.  I think we're looking at a new ballgame here; I think the youth and black turnout are going to push the numbers in Obama's court way higher than the polls are showing.  And even if I'm wrong, I still think the polls are showing Obama can win on the traditional demos.

Then again, so did Gore.

[Büge]

experience suggests that dear old Granny would honestly rather take the horrific war and depression she's grown accustomed to

It warms Granny's heart to know you're thinking of her, dear boy.

[TA]

So, McCain either doesn't know who the Prime Minister of Spain is, or thinks Spain is a country in Latin America.  Or both, maybe.

After the interviewer presses him a couple times on the point and tries to focus him on the fact that Prime Minister Zapatero isn't from Mexico and isn't a drug lord either McCain comes back at her saying, "All I can tell you is that I have a clear record of working with leaders in the Hemisphere that are friends with us and standing up to those who are not. And that's judged on the basis of the importance of our relationship with Latin America and the entire region."

Then there's a moment of awkward pause before she says. "But what about Europe? I'm talking about the President of Spain."

McCain: "What about me, what?

Interviewer: "Are you willing to meet with him if you're elected president?"

McCain: "I am wiling to meet with any leader who is dedicated to the same principles and philosophy that we are for humans rights, democracy and freedom. And I will stand up to those who do not."

So ... this is senile dementia, isn't it?  He's not even capable of actually seriously thinking about things anymore, he's just repeating what he's been drilled to say.

[Brentai]

Don't worry, Palin's there to fill him in on all the little details of foreign policy he's not too clear on, just like Obama's VP.  She's seen pictures of Spain before, after all.

[Arc]

Hmmmmmmm.

Guy who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Chick who got her first passport last year.

Guy who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committeeeeee.

Chick who got her first passport last yeeeear.

Hmmmmmmmm.

[Classic]

She's got TITS tho!

[Thad]

I think all this "sky-is-falling" stuff I'm seeing from a lot on the left is a little premature.  Obama got a poll bounce, McCain got a poll bounce, now the numbers are pretty close, with Obama trending upward.

NYT:

Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a “typical Republican” who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

[...]

But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin’s selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among women in general. White women were evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women, 44 percent to 37 percent.

By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.

Among other groups, Mr. Obama had a slight edge among independents, and a 16-percentage-point lead among voters ages 18 to 44.

Which, again, is no excuse for complacency.  Obama DOES need to kick some serious ass out there.  I just don't think the situation right now is as bleak as some people see it.  In fact, I think this "Obama is on the ropes" narrative is another example of the Republicans controlling the message.

It's not all good news, of course; the poll shows that the "The surge is working" mantra is working.  Going to be interested in seeing how his vaunted foreign policy experience holds up if he keeps doing shit like, say, reveal that he doesn't know who the Prime Minister of Spain is.

All in all, though, this week's polls are bearing out what I said: bounce is over, right now it's pretty much a tie, but the momentum's on Obama's side.  That doesn't mean it's going to be easy or that Obama should rest on his laurels for one goddamned second, but it means things are going decently well and he's not choking all over the place.